MANDA

Having to do it once is bad enough but twice you have to be a special kind of person. I personally could not imagine it. Having lived through Sandy up here was bad enough and that was nothing compared to this in my area away from the shore. Just froze in the dark for 9 days and I was about ready to lose my mind.

That NW eye wall is just unforgiving - hence the strong gusts over 120 mph still coming in. NW of the center is where you are going to see the worst wind damage. Southeast of and near the center is where storm surge damage will dominate. Not going to be pretty when dawn breaks tomorrow.

It did. I remember vividly it came out stronger and better looking than when it went in.

Power will be out for weeks or longer in some spots. Damage will be over a very wide area with major infrastructure destroyed in spots. Suspect some barrier islands will be uninhabitable for a while.

Entire eye almost completely inland now. Maybe another 15-30 min. NW eye wall still looking vicious. Western and southwestern eye wall still yet to move onshore. Should do so over the next 30-60 min and Boca Grande to Sanibel could take it on the chin again. Water still being pushed onshore south of the eye near Fort Myers.

Ian make second landfall on the mainland per TPC: Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 435 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN MAKES MAINLAND FLORIDA LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA NEAR PIRATE HARBOR... NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian has made landfall on the mainland southwest Florida peninsula just south of Punta Gorda near Pirate Harbor. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 145 mph (235 km/h). A WeatherSTEM station at the Cape Coral Fire Department recently reported a wind gust of 110 mph (177 km/h). A WeatherFlow station in Grove City on the western side of Charlotte Harbor reported a sustained wind of 85 mph (137 km/h) with a gust to 128 mph (206 km/h). SUMMARY OF 435 PM EDT...2035 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 82.0W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven/Papin/Bucci

Based on radar the entire eye should be inland over the next 60 min or so. TPC should be declaring a second landfall shortly near Lee and Charlotte County border. The NW eye wall looks absolutely vicious - roughly Englewood to Lake Suzy.

WPC scaled back slightly on northern edge in latest update. Still gets needed rainfall to L.I. We'll watch trends in the coming days. Going to be a sharp northern edge.

TPC should be declaring landfall shortly - happening now over Pine Island and shortly should be crossing onto mainland near Charlotte / Lee County border near Charlotte Harbor Preserve State Park.

Think TPC has a typo there. It can't be 20 miles west of both those locations.

Based on radar at 3:00 center of the eye looks to be right over northern end of Pine Island - near Pineland / Bokeelia on the northern end of the island.

Looks like Englewood, Murdock, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda and Lake Suzy are primed to get into the western and NW eye wall over next 30-90 minutes. Going to be bad. Fort Myers area in prime surge area they are getting lambasted by onshore flow and will continue to be for a while longer. Surge still rising there.

Going to be 2 - 4 weeks plus for many to get power back. Suspect lots of infrastructure damage.

The area from Boca Grande south to Captiva and Sanibel including Pine Island look about ready to fully enter the eye over the next 30 min or so.

Boca Grande and Cayo Costa getting nailed with eastern eye wall now.

Yep, I'm watching the windows on that yellow house to see how high it gets. Hope we don't lose the camera.

Going to be real close to that area. Water is going to rapidly pile into Gasparilla Sound / Charlotte Harbor on that track. Those homes on Boca Grande are well built - we're about to find out how well built.

Look at the rush of water on the Periwinkle and Casa Yebel cam.

Amazing satellite presentation. Maintaining intensity right up to the coast with no degradation whatsoever - none. We are watching something rare unfold.

Can you imagine!? I have to believe there were some terrifying moments in that aircraft.

I think they have now gone offline? Stream unavailable.

We forget it is dangerous work. Especially in something like Ian.

You, me and many others. TPC was wrong but in the other direction. Intensity forecasting as I said a few days back is still the holy grail of tropical forecasting. I was uncertain if Ian would fully recover from the ERC. Sometimes storms do and sometimes they do not. I was counting on some shear to keep Ian below the TPC 130 mph max intensity. Was thinking 110-120 mph at landfall. Dead wrong. I did mention yesterday though that the ERC started at the wrong time and that potential did exist for full recovery, it fully recovered and exceeded!

Someone else feel free to chime in but considering the intensity, size, surge prone coast being affected, major population area, high end real estate and rainfall associated flooding could this be the costliest CONUS hurricane of all time by the time ALL is said and done? Katrina stands out in front of the pack but have to believe this will make it into the top 5. Any thoughts?

Would imagine water will be rising quickly over the next several hours in Charlotte Harbor as south to southeast winds will be piling a ton of water into there. Boca Grande could be hit hard with surge as water piles in and eventually rushes back out.