MANDA

EURO = Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Persistence is a forecasting tool. I'm quite sure the evolution of things will not be exactly as EURO depicts. Entire week away and there will be changes. Not saying for the better necessarily. EURO as currently modeled certainly meets the definition of persistence.

Combined with the fact the we'll be going towards a more +PNA and MJO in more favorable phases and -AO and -EPO (not huge negatives but negatives) based on this and that it is not just the GFS I'd have to say this is the best CHANCE at SOMETHING so far this season. Just have to see if trends hold. We're quite a ways away and nothing in this time frame has held so far this season so there is reason for caution. At least something of interest. Better than continuous torching.

That ENS M looks pretty textbook. Remains to be seen if that solution comes close to reality. Will be interesting to watch future cycles to see if something at least close to this holds. It sure looks like something with potential to produce but keeping expectations in check. At this point I'd say worth watching but not more than that.

First 70 degree readings of the year showing up. Just balmy out.

Just shows you how little weather of interest is currently going on or is expected to go on in the near future if you like cold and snow.

Great job Don as always. So, December to finish .70 below normal against the warmest normals we've had. Majority of this forum had no snow or nothing meaningful. I had 4" at my location from 2 events. I was close to the southern edge of things with 1" or less totals just a 30-minute drive away. Were it not for the 4 days of intense cold we would have been above normal. This from a month that many were expecting so much from. Especially the second half. We basically had a 4-day cold snap. Was a wet month (and year) at my location with 6.44" for the month and just over 52" for the year. Just was not well distributed during the summer months. I see from the latest Drought Monitor the south shore of Suffolk County is still in Moderate Drought. Hope January can deliver something better, but my expectations are low.

Yep, and it is not going to buckle easily. Going to be a while. Terrible pattern, no way to sugar coat it.

Overnight low of -0.4. Officially zero. Was 56 at 5am Friday and -0.2 at 5am this morning for a 56-degree 24-hour temperature drop. Merry Christmas to all.

Overnight low here was -0.4, officially zero. Merry Christmas to all.

Temperature free fall has leveled off here. Has been 2.7 for a while now. High point -2.

Down to 3 here.

Down to 7 here.

Nice LE streamer aimed right into downtown Buffalo last several hours. Going to be some hefty totals. Combined with the wind must look amazing.

Same here. Everything was rapidly drying and they have salt all over the place. Even worse is no rain for next week or so it will be like a dust storm with the wind for a few days on the highways. Has really gotten out of hand with treating roads for nothing over the last several years. At least here in NJ.

Down to 10 degrees here. Was 56 degrees 12 hours ago. Wind is howling and we have a fresh .10" of snow coating everything but pavement. There was so flash freeze on the roads in my area at least. Wind and drying air evaporated roadways before any freezing could take place. Even on untreated surfaces.

Currently 27 here with still light snow. Everything coated but pavement. Back edge right at my doorstep. Look to end up with about .10". Sky brightening.

The back edge of precip shield just racing through NJ. Has to be moving 50 mph. Partly sunny over SW NJ.

Currently 30 here with light wet snow but good size flakes. Was 56 at 5am. Windy!

Currently 34 here with light wet snow but good size flakes. Was 56 at 5am.

1.87" rainfall here last 24 hours. Was 56 at 5am and currently 41 degrees. Windy with gusts estimated at 30-35 mph.

1.87" rainfall here last 24 hours. Was 56 at 5am and currently 41.

Interesting to note: The first half of the month was not as mild as originally forecast and the last half of the month does not look as cold as originally forecast. Consequently there was little warmth to erase starting at mid month and as it looks now the month will finish a degree or so below normal. There has been a rather consistent chill near to just below normal for most of the month after the milder opening. The coming cold shot looks to ensure we finish just below normal. There was a time earlier in the month when it was questionable if the cold second of the month would get us to normal or below. As it turns out there was not much warmth to erase. Without the coming cold shot we probably would have finished flat give or take a tenth or two.

Good grief. This thread is sinking faster than cement shoes in the Hudson.

Interesting stats. Courtesy Dr. Ryan Maue. I remember December 1989 vividly. Also remember what followed for the rest of the winter. Ugh. December 23, 1989 had heavy snows coastal SC/NC followed by bitter cold. Was an amazing Arctic discharge.

Tatamy and NorthShore. I also remember that event so well. I was 14 years old. It was a Monday morning, and I went to bed Sunday night with temperatures in the m/u 50's. Woke up early in the morning Monday to the sound of thunder and lightning. Laid in bed a bit and then heard the wind howling, more flashes of lightning. Did not hear any rainfall and thought that was odd. Got up and looked out the window and there were blizzard conditions. Checked my Taylor thermometer and it was 17 degrees. Blizzard conditions raged for about 2 hours. Only about 2" snow but wind howled for hours, and temperatures held in the teens all day. Lived near the Bayonne waterfront and went for a walk along the shore late morning. Everything was encased in frozen spray and the bay was raging with whitecaps. Great little event often forgotten.