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MANDA

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Everything posted by MANDA

  1. MANDA
    Yes and most all of the latest guidance is "meh" on amounts. We'll see but I'm not expecting a widespread 1"+ type event. More typical CF type passage for this time of year. Guidance not especially robust although some parameters are favorable for locally heavy convective type storms especially NNJ.
  2. MANDA
    Intensified right up until landfall. Impressive IR satellite depiction as she moved onshore. Another 12-18 hours over water and would have been a major.
  3. MANDA
    Overnight low here an even 35.
  4. MANDA
    Julia looking impressive on latest satellite images. Thankfully time over water is limited to less than 24 hours. Has satellite signature of rapidly organizing hurricane. Time will run out before things get too out of hand. Nice dust cloud has come off Africa. After Julia looks quiet for 7-10 days. Will be get something lifting out of Caribbean later in the month?
  5. MANDA
    Very much agree. Hope we can continue some semblance of this into at least part of the winter. NE Pacific warm pool offers some hope as does warmer water vicinity Greenland. Both of those would tend to favor more ridging in those areas. Says nothing about input from MJO etc. Just hope we are not expending the blocking now only to have little or none during the height of winter. Impressive pattern with strong ridge over the western U.S. into Alaska. Cross polar flow! Could be nice cold outbreak in 7-10 days.
  6. MANDA
    Full effects of the recent rainfall will not be fully reflected in the Drought Monitor until next Thursday issuance. Data cutoff for this map was 8am this past Tuesday. As a result the Tuesday and Wednesday rainfall was not factored in. I would expect most of this forum to just be Abnormally Dry or no classification in the next Thursday release. Expecting the Moderate Drought and Severe Drought areas will be eliminated. South shore L.I. could hang on as Moderate?
  7. MANDA
    Finished with 2.95" here. Updated maps show six day event totals. Included New England if only to show how poorly models (at least initially) modeled the northern extent of .5-1" QPF. High pressure and dry air lost the battle for sure. Initially all the guidance was for the 1" line to just about maybe make it to the L.I. south shore. It eventually made it way beyond. I'd add that the tracks of the mid and upper level low and surface feature would have made for an epic snow dump if this had occurred in late December, Jan or Feb. Tracks were text book classic. Coastal sections likely would have gone to mix or rain just because of the winds being constantly onshore and wind direction going from NNE to more easterly near the end of the event but overall if would have been a blockbuster snow event especially inland. Mid and upper low tracks were exactly what you look for.
  8. MANDA
    Morning visible. Would have been one hell of a winter storm.
  9. MANDA
    Event total 2.78" over last 5 days. Entire forum received much needed rain. Coastal NJ did best with widespread 3-6" of rainfall. Some local amounts there 5-8" with even some local 10"+ amounts. Drought Monitor maps should be pretty much completely erased if not by tomorrow then by next Thursday issuance.
  10. MANDA
    1.48" last 24 hours (8am to 8am) and a four day total of 1.94". Cold out this morning with temperature of 41. So glad the south shore L.I. finally got what they needed!
  11. MANDA
    Ok, but PLEASE the NW edge has to be moved 50 miles to the NW or some of us will be skunked. Have had .01" since 7am. Hopefully this band will pivot more to the NW than any other today.
  12. MANDA
    Currently 48 degrees. Three day total up until 4pm = .47". Rain bands so far today get to within about 10 miles of me and then dry up. I like a cloudy, damp and chilly day at this time of year. so not complaining. Milder weather will be back for Thursday and Friday.
  13. MANDA
    If this were 8 -10 weeks later we would need to have had an urgent supply of Xanax IV drips brought in to all weather nuts along and north of roughly a Sandy Hook to Flemington line including metro NYC and L.I. Mix and rain along the coast but inland CNJ and SNJ would have been a huge snowstorm measured with a yardstick while north measured with a pocket ruler.
  14. MANDA
    Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida. Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall. Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way. We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3.
  15. MANDA
    I agree. Big sprawling ocean storm bumping up against strong high pressure aiding in keeping the winds up. No real change as far as impacts no matter what we call it but nothing tropical about this in my opinion.
  16. MANDA
    Some incredible picture in this article / link. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11263749/Stunning-aerial-pics-reveal-deadly-hurricane-cut-swath-Florida.html
  17. MANDA
    Absolutely - NO WAY! I'm with ya!
  18. MANDA
    Agreed.
  19. MANDA
    Convection building around the northern and eastern quadrants of the circulation, there was nothing there for most of the morning. A faster movement across FL and wider swing east over the gulf stream before heading to the north will given Ian the edge to reach low end Cat 1 status prior to SC landfall. As a side note it really is interesting how through most if not all of the track it has favored the right edge of the cone. Anyway radar and visible satellite not looking shabby. Increase in organization, good gradient between Ian and high to the north and baroclinic assistance will make for a gusty time of it over the NE FL, GA and SC coasts. Could be going post tropical around the time it approaches the coast with fronts near by.
  20. MANDA
    As bad as some of these pictures are I don't think this is the worst of it. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11261707/Monster-Hurricane-Ian-devastates-Florida-leaving-2million-without-power-trapped-homes.html
  21. MANDA
    Whats is left of the NW eye wall still not disappointing.
  22. MANDA
    Totally agree and much of the wind will be generated by gradient between big high to the north and leftovers from Ian to the south. Only thing that will aid in surge and coastal flooding along GA/SC is fact that flow has been strong onshore last 24 hours + so water has already been piling up along the coast. Agree though, not much left core wise to organize. Combine that with shear and low DP air to the west. Gradient and some baroclinic assist is all we've got.
  23. MANDA
    Horrible if true and avoidable if people would just follow evacuation orders. I hope this is not true.
  24. MANDA
    11' in Charlotte Harbor???
  25. MANDA
    They did luck out as far as surge. As "JM 1220" said the wind never aligned to push water up into the Harbor / Bay. So surge for that area was on the manageable side. Wind on the other hand was unrelenting as they were in the eye wall (NW eye wall especially) for a prolonged period. Like you said worse surge was from Boca Grande, Captiva, Sanibel on south to Fort Myers and Naples area. Big surge there.
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