MANDA

Yes, and I did amend my post immediately after I posted it. Western and northern edge of snow shield could be closer to Kuchera totals. 15:1 ratios are not likely.

Anyone hanging their hopes on Kuchera totals is in for disappointment. Except for perhaps western and northern edges of the snow shield.

I'm accepting it and have been accepting it for at least the last two days for my location. Will take significant changes to get my area in 12"+ snows and I'm not expecting it.

Liking the northern stream so far on the NAM. We'll see how this plays out for the rest of the run. Looks good so far. It does have that "go boom" look but exactly when and where?

Could not agree more. Where and when will absolutely dictate who gets what. So close to something amazing. Not that 12" for some spots is not good but expectations were set very high early on with this and then with constant posting of the Kuchera maps that skews expectations. 12Z runs will be interesting.

Outstanding morning AFD from PHI NWS office this morning. It lays out the variables and how they affect the final outcome. Check it out. A good read. Good westward shifts overnight (but for the GFS) but main takeaway is that is that this event still heavily favors I95 south and east over NJ and LI with the heaviest totals. Having said that there are still going to be shifts and adjustment over the next 24 hours or so and the zone of heaviest totals is yet to be determined.

Yes, improved over 18Z but how much worse could if have gotten than 18Z. Problem with 00Z is 500MB does not go negative and close off until too late for anyone but the immediate coast and LI. Axis stays neutral until around noon Saturday and then goes negative and cuts off and sfc low explodes but to far offshore once she goes negative. NAM so we wait and watch other guidance. It just has to happen a little sooner so we get that rapid deepening closer in. I do agree though that overall look of 00Z is improved. Just needs a little more to make this memorable.

Put another way for the NYC individual members there is also about a 38% chance of 3" or less. Just pointing that out so I don't give the impression I'm over hyping anything. There are a number of low / very low members in there as well.

18Z individual members for NYC. Good amount of "big ones" in there. There is upside potential if the 500 can close off a little further to the south and southwest.

The EURO 500 MB mean is just a hair away from something spectacular even for the west of I95er's. Hope we can get some backup from GFS and CMC over the next several hours.

Prob for 6, 12 and 18" have all expanded slightly N and W, not a lot but there was expansion. Have not seen individual members yet.

Just looking at probabilities and at quick glance they have blossomed a bit NW. Here are 18Z MEAN and CONTROL

I still favor the Euro over the GFS/CMC solutions. The EURO at 500 looks darn impressive, just not fast enough / far enough south to help western and northern areas of this forum. I think the upcoming 00Z and 12Z runs you are going to start to see a consensus form leaning more toward the Euro. Use liquid amounts at 12:1 for snowfall totals. Kuchera maps are just weather porn.

When I say ain't getting it done I mean for I95 N and W. Coastal sections still see meaningful event. Not the huge numbers of some prior runs for inland locations but nothing to sneeze at for coastal locations. Inland needs MAJOR improvements and that is not likely IMO. Still EURO against everything else along the the more coastal locations up into southeast New England.

Nope, ain't getting it done.

18Z EURO out thru 09Z Sat (63 hours) is a TAD deeper at 500 and has lost the dual sfc low and 18Z has one consolidated low further west. Based on this and slightly better look at 500 may produce a decent rest of the run. Stay tuned as they say!

Probabilities from 12Z EURO. The 6", 12" and 18" probabilities have come down across this forum as the area of probabilities has contracted at each increment. Not a good sign. Not trying to be a downer or cancel the event just stating that as we get closer to event you do not want to see probabilities coming down.

There certainly has been a trend in storm totals last several runs on the EURO no denying it. Yes, 500 does not look that bad at all but we don't live at 500 MBS. Not giving up entirely but I don't like the trends and except for the 12Z NAM there was not much to sink your teeth into. Can there be adjustments to something bigger, yes. My hopes and expectations are not high though. Expecting EPS probabilites to have come way down when they arrive in a while.

12Z EPS Mean and Control Based on these am certain individual members will have also diminished

We'll see what the EPS probabilities look like vs 00Z and 6Z mu gut tells me they will be knocked downward again.

Just posting not saying right or wrong. There is no denying though that 12Z compared to 00Z and 06Z has pulled the best totals eastward. 12Z OP verbatim is still a nice hit coastal NJ to L.I. but taken in context with the other 12Z guidance (excluding the NAM) the window is closing hard I95 N and W, of that I'm fairly certain.

While we're waiting on the EURO...a little levity.

Trends so far (excluding the NAM) this morning should be considered as a very viable option as far as an eventual outcome. I'm fully expecting the EURO to go eastward at least somewhat with 12Z cycle. I think with the upper feature onshore out west and included in 12Z cycle we should start seeing models come together. I think the 12Z runs pending the EURO are starting to put the writing on the wall. Not an ultimate final solution but trending toward one.

S/W is into the U.S. grid this morning so 12Z models have first sniff of those soundings. Will be interesting to see what CMC and EURO do. Should start to get clear trends soon. NW of I95 don't get your hopes up for big numbers...coastal sections still in the game.

A few things: Forget about the Kuchera snow maps. They seldom apply and do not apply in this case. 00Z and 06Z EURO definitely ticked east op and ensembles. Probabilities for 12"+ maximize along the NJ coast at about 40% and fall to less than 20% over NW Jersey. Probabilities for 18"+ also obviously also maximize along the NJ coast at about 25% and fall quickly as you go NW. These probabilities are down slightly from 12Z and 18Z yesterday. Ensemble "counts" have also slipped. In my opinion the EURO has definitely trended less favorable, and the changes mostly impacts areas west of I95. For coastal sections, NYC metro and LI still showing a big hit. Still 48-60 hours to go but guidance has got to start some sort of capitulation soon. The closer you get to the event the less likely you are to see significant shifts. Strong feeling on my part is that western and northern areas of this forum as going to be left out of the big numbers, high confidence on that. Not 100% but at least 75%. Coastal sections will do better but I'd temper expectations of amounts in excess of 12" and even more so in excess of 18". Trends last 24 hours do not support it and if you factor in the CMC and GFS they really don't support it. I'm riding more of a EURO solution and think CMC and GFS will trend better and the EURO will trend more eastward. Time will tell but model solutions are going to have to move one way or the other over the next 2 days.