MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Agreed! Thankfully the September sun angle helps a little, would have felt worse with a July sun angle. Impressive though.
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Classic RI satellite signature !
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Will be interesting to see over the next 2-3 (12Z / 00Z) model cycles if the synoptic mission data causes any notable shift in track forecast. If Lee travels near or over the impressive cold wake left by Franklin it will be well off peak before it would affect Bermuda. If it stays south and west of that it would hold onto major status longer. Regardless, it will be generating huge waves and swells next week that will be an issue for the U.S. east coast, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada down the road. Not to mention the Islands in the coming days.
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Fascinating stuff to follow.
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Latest 7 day QPF from WPC. Reference post from Walt early this morning. Looks like a wet time for the NW and western sections of this sub forum over the next 7 days. Pretty much the same places that have been drenched the most all summer long. We better hope Lee stays out of the picture because any excessive rainfall from a tropical system (especially over these western and NW sections and New England) would not be a good situation. Very likely Lee does stay away but not guaranteed at this point. Regardless, some wet weather for parts of this sub forum over the next week to 10 days.
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Long ways to go but here are latest EPS (Tropical Models) and Intensity Guidance. EPS does show a cluster staying more south and coming further west. More so than prior cycle.
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Had a low here of 47 this morning. Along with a light breeze it was legit light jacket for a time earlier this morning. Walpack dipped to 42.
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Wow, quite a string of warm Septembers! Great stats...thanks! I suspect we end this September above to continue the streak! We'll see.
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Low of 56 degrees here this morning with s brisk breeze and low humidity! Really nice. I know the heat is coming next week but I'll take this while it lasts.
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Pretty scary. https://twitter.com/i/status/1696958390289805663
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https://twitter.com/i/status/1696886125103608002 Cedar Key
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Interesting.
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https://twitter.com/i/status/1696857231780700670
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Before and after picture Horseshoe beach surge.
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We'll see if the extreme wind warning now in effect over the swath of FL gets extended NE into SE GA.
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I think less populated and confined to a small area. Very small core with Idalia. Not to mention rather meh eastern half. Strong winds confined to tight area on western side. No obs available on the immediate coast where landfall took place.
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Radar from Moody AFB Georgia.
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I agree, going to be bad. For sure in the top 5, especially for inland locations. Fast, or at least brisk forward motion over rather flat/marshy terrain at landfall will blunt dramatic reduction in the wind field for a while and it will tend to spread out.
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Sorry, you are right. Not as much as Tallahassee suggested anyway. Not as open but still much less impressive than western semicircle. It has pretty much been that way at least off and on for the last 12 hours.
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Such an odd radar presentation. Completely open on southeast side. That western and northwestern side is a beast. Perry going to take a hard hit over the next 2 hours. Hope the poster from Perry can stay with us for details as long as power / cell towers hold up.
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Yep, would expect an update from TPC very soon. Inland wind damage in a narrow swath is going to be severe. I guess we just witnessed history. First ever major in recorded history to enter Appalachee Bay.
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Looking good!
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Recon reports show Idalia is moving a little east of due north now. Last advisory was due north (360) we'll see what 8pm and 11 pm show but IMO by 11:00 advisory should be on at least a 10 degree heading. I think recon is picking up on the expected turn to the NNE by tomorrow morning.
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Maximum surge will be basically be coming into nature preserves and marshes. Uninhabited, so yes could not ask for better landfall location as far as surge threat to life and property. As center moves onshore and winds spread inland that is going to be a big problem!
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Some impressive surge flooding vicinity Ft. Myers earlier today. Tampa Bay should see some notable water rise later tonight to around pre-dawn tomorrow. LOTS of water going to be piling into Appalachee Bay between mid-night and dawn tomorrow. Fort Myers photos.
