MANDA

Stunning pictures! Absolutely beautiful!

Structure continues to improve. This is going to pass over western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. Thinking very little or no passage over DR. Maybe center skirts the NE coast of DR. Certainly all the morning guidance is unanimous with fishing trip. Window for east coast threat has closed. Incoming mid week trof is just too strong. Fiona is going out. Seems as though any chance of U.S. landfall this season is going to have to come from Caribbean. Pattern just not going to allow for anything moving westward over the Atlantic to come close. Still not giving up on something from the Caribbean moving northward into the GOM or up nearer the east coast as we go into October. I think September chances are about done.

What a snooze fest coming up. Guess we can look forward to the late week CF and associated cool down and taste of Fall but other than that not much going on. Fiona looks like a done deal except for Canadian Maritime provinces...maybe. Satellite pictures mid and late week should be nice to look at as I think this goes to solid cat 3, maybe a bit more. Not much else to find interest in weather wise over the next 1 - 2 weeks.

It is organizing and the overall structure with developing outflow looks impressive. Let's give this 12 hours and see where this goes but it is in a developing and re-organizing phase for sure. Shear much reduced over last several days. Fiona is on her way to hurricane status! We've not seen a satellite picture look this good in the deep tropics all season - nothing even close.

Watching satellite last few hours looks like outflow is becoming established, especially to the north and east. No doubt in my mind Fiona is getting better organized and aligned. Satellite shows a developing hurricane in my opinion.

With Fiona likely heading out to sea how much longer will the current dry spell last? Certainly nothing meaningful over the next 7 days. Could be make it though the rest of September will only minimal rainfall <.50"? I'd say it is possible to get close. Maybe the closing 2-4 days can deliver something? Certainly not seeing it before that.

Based on morning visible and IR satellite and latest recon data Fiona is clearly getting her act together. Assuming this trend continues and I expect it will Fiona will become more vertically stacked and less subject to the low level flow. Based on a more vertically stacked system the turn to the WNW then NW over the next few days is becoming very likely. Depending on how fast it continues to organize it could turn sooner than later and possibly even pass over the Mona Passage or western PR. Conditions over the SW Atlantic are going to be quite favorable and the water is untouched so far this season and is very warm. Fiona has excellent chance to eventually become a major hurricane by mid to late next week. Odds increasing that with a stronger system the major trof coming east later this week will catch her and take her out. Various ensemble members (the weakest ones) take her more westward toward the SE coast but based on current trends this is becoming unlikely. Still have to keep an eye to make sure current trends hold but this is not looking like an east coast threat. Morning satellite pictures show a more symmetric and organizing tropical cyclone. Puerto Rico looks to be next in line for some excessive rainfall and flooding - especially since Fiona will be moving slowly as she goes near or over the island. Best looking system so far this season at that latitude by far.

Very intense convective blowup right near the center with very cold cloud tops -70 / -80. Looks like Guadalupe is going to get nailed with very heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the next several hours. NE part of the island is already under the very intense convection. Interesting.

Convection once again trying to get going around the LLC. Shear must less pronounced than yesterday. Motion today has been pretty much straight west. I'm not writing this off as a U.S. impact threat until it crosses over the islands. Exactly when and where that will take place is open to question in my mind. No doubt there looks to be an impressive trof swinging through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic mid to late next week. I'm not sold on that trof picking this up just yet. We'll see but for now convection trying to get going once again around the LLC.

Looking at latest visible loop the center is almost entirely exposed again. Recent short term motion is due west, maybe even a VERY SLIGHT just south of due west is last few images. My thinking is this ends up tracking more on the south side of the TPC cone. Until it can get better vertically stacked the general motion is going to be more west than anything. Also agree with others that this is not going to emerge into the SW Atlantic and immediately start to intensify. While all the 12Z data so far (EURO pending) wants to go fishing I'm still not sold until I see where and what condition this emerges from the Greater Antilles. I will say LR guidance does seem to have several S/W trofs in the pipeline so this may well go fishing I'm just not sure which trof gets it. Still possible ridge builds over top to send it back to the coast for a time but that chance is less likely as of today.

First short visible loop on the day still shows a sheared system but much better than when the sun set yesterday. Bursting convection is now on the eastern edge of the circulation. If that trend can continue today and I think it will then Fiona has better chance to strengthen as it enters the NE Caribbean tomorrow. All in all I think Fiona looks better than I would have expected this morning. The longer she keeps on a west or slightly south of due west course the better the chances of intensification over the Caribbean and a later turn to the NW down the road. The later the turn to the WNW and NW the better the odds of impacting the U.S. down the road. Not out of the question just yet in my mind. Movement next 24 hours more west than anything. Not expecting much if any additional loss in latitude today.

Overnight low of 47 here. Per NJWXNET 38 Sandyston and numerous readings in the low 40's NW NJ with mid 40's interior CNJ. Nice cool crisp morning. Looks very dry and very warm for most of next week. Was some easing of drought conditions on Drought Monitor released yesterday but any further progress will be stalled for a while.

Very intense convective blowup centered near 16N - 53W with overshooting cloud tops. Will be interesting to see if new LLC develops near this burst overnight. IF it does there will need to be some relocation of the center perhaps by tomorrow morning? LL vortex is now well removed to the east of this convective burst.

Based on the visible loop during the course of today the LLC continues to pull away from the deep convection. The LLC is now fully exposed and decoupled from mid level vortex. Fiona will have to re-establish a LLC back under the deep convection. Going to be hard to keep this going if it does not do that. Forget all the long term tracks the main question is what does this do over the next 24-48 hours. It its current state the westward motion is going to continue. Will have to pull together rather quickly tomorrow and Saturday to get this to pass north of PR and DR/Haiti a solution I'm losing confidence in. Shaky situation unless LLC gets going under the deep convection.

Have a hard time envisioning the rather sharp turn to the NW in latest TPC outlook UNLESS system becomes more vertically stacked before then. Questionable. I have a feeling they are going more on persistence and continuity to their prior tracks. I think 12Z guidance is going to show some shifts and we'll see what LLC/convection looks like by this evening. Tricky forecast on the longer range solutions for Fiona...IMO.

Latest visible loop since sunrise really shows LLC out racing convection. Should be interesting disco from TPC at 11am. If this trend continues today going to be hard for this to survive unless new center somehow can redevelop under the deeper convection.

First visible pictures of the day show the convection is ALMOST entirely east of the center of circulation. Vortex is ALMOST a naked swirl. Between the shear and dry air Fiona is going to have a hard battle to hold in a steady state next 2-3 days. I would expect no additional intensification over the next 48 hours at least. Intensity will have impact on the track. Weaker and more sheared system will track more westward and stay nearer or over the islands. If vortex can maintain itself under the deeper convection then Fiona could intensify some and a more vertically stacked system will tend to get tugged more poleward and track north of PR and DR/Haiti. I'm leaning SLIGHTLY toward a more north of the islands track. If system can get to the SW Atlantic with an intact vortex conditions will become more favorable for development down the road. In the short term though Fiona is going to have to fight hard against shear and dry air. Hard to believe a storm in this position at the peak of the season is battling this much shear and dry air. Just goes to show you that conditions that have been present all season so far are still there. The MDR region and deep tropics are not really favorable for robust development this year. Edit: Just wanted to add will have to see if this completely decouples today. It is possible although shear does not seem all that severe. If it does decouple the future of the system becomes highly uncertain. As of now I'm thinking not but it is possible.

Agree with everything except water is not all that "cold" off MA and NE at the moment. Anything that did try to make it up to New England on a track like that with an upper air setup like that would stand a far better chance than usual to be a headline maker. Especially if it were hauling along at 30-40 mph. That being said this will change 20 different times on the next 20 GFS runs. Fantasy land at this point. If there were model consistency in the days ahead and other models start showing something similar than maybe I'd pay more attention. For now nothing more than grist for the mill.

T-Storms not likely as upper ridge will be overhead. Going to take some time to get meaningful rainfall for locations in this forum. Will be 10 days at least.

.59" for part one of the rainfall event at this location. Slow and gentle periods of rain yesterday for most of the day. All of it was able to soak in.

Up to .26" here as of 1:30.

Nice NJ Summary of August and Summer 2022 for NJ : https://www.njweather.org/

Three day total here = 2.53". Had .63" last 24 hours from steady light rain, mist and drizzle.

1.9" so far at my location. .98" as of 8am yesterday. Dry all day yesterday into the evening. Another .92" in the gauge this morning. All rainfall went to productive use. Slow and steady rate of fall. No tremendous deluge with mostly runoff. Based on radar some additional rain to come today.

For my area of NJ I'll be happy if EURO comes close to verification. Anything less than 2" and I'll be grossly disappointed. Very slow moving in that is for sure. Daylight hours today for majority of NJ, except far NW will end up being dry. Was expecting much more shower activity today than what has verified so far. Need rain badly but not nearly as bad as south shore LI, you guys have just been in the worst of the dryness.