MANDA

After looking at all the overnight data I think it is safe to say we have started to I am not at all surprised. The signal has been there for a lackluster December. Raging Pacific Jet just ain't gonna cut it for cold and decent snow in the east. Pattern needs to relax and reshuffle and that is not likely to happen before the end of the month. December = shot.

Two periods of light snow here so far this morning. Colder surfaces with a light coating. Temperature 29. I'll take what I can get! Festive mood flakes!

I believe the Ohio Valley Blizzard of January 1978 was also a triple phaser, not 100% sure though. That storm EXPLODED moving almost due north from southern Alabama to just west of Cleveland. Where I was in NENJ at the time we had temperatures into the low 60's and wind gusts to about 60 mph followed by plummeting temperatures and a flash freeze. A blizzard paralyzed the parts of the Ohio Valley. Just a few weeks later we had our turn with the Blizzard of 78 over our area.

Have a set of old DIFAX maps framed on my office wall. Event was well signaled 5 days in advance. All three streams phased from the high Arctic down to the gulf coast. If track was 100 miles further east most of this forum would have seen a snow event rivaling the Blizzard of '88.

and phasing with the STJ if you want something to remember. The STJ will be present for sure but without some stream interaction we could be on the the northern edge of things. Not to mention (as you did) the cold air supply.

I remember it turning quite cool for a day or so right after Hurricane Belle went by in early August. Except for the sun angle it felt like mid September.

That kind of cold is incomprehensible these days. That 76-77 and 77-78 was amazing stuff. Pattern in 76-77 quickly collapsed in early February 77 from what I remember. I seem to remember walking home from school mid to late February and breaking a sweat. Good old days for sure. Not much snow 76-77, only one decent event but snow cover for a very long period of time as nothing melted from December through early February.

Low of 18 with a breeze. Legit "hoodie weather".

Moderate snow shower earlier (bordering on very briefly heavy) left the deck completely covered. Also whitened dirt and mulch beds with trace amounts scattered on the lawn. Some blowing around with a gusty wind.

Not even much of a risk to say 5X as much as last year.

I'll go out on a limb and say CP will see twice the amount of snow it saw last season.

Per friend in Trenton moderate snow showers ongoing. Radar supports this. Dirt is white and starting to stick on the grass.

1.46" rain for the recent event.

Keep expectations in check and just know it has to be better than last year ! I am not expecting much from December based on current trends and guidance.

No notable wind here but a solid soaking. Will measure shortly but eyeballing the gauge from a distance I'd say about 1.5". To be confirmed shortly.

Like I said yesterday....gonna be an interesting winter to forecast. Guidance has been flip floppy for months on most major precip events around here. Sometimes even within 24 hours and that includes the EURO.

Going to be a fun Winter.

Waiting for the paper to dry before doing an analysis! Hitting refresh every 30 seconds waiting for the FOUS to arrive. Checking for the latest PREXTD discussion (WSI) when something was pending and hoping that Weinbrenner or Ships wrote it.

Remember that weather office well! Small and rather cramped. Was there (WCBS TV) late 83 to early 86. Started on weekends working with Tom Chisholm and when Frank Field came over from NBC Irv was bumped to weekends and Tom was let go. Tom was great. George was a great and very funny guy. Ran into him many times as I was leaving on Sunday nights and he was coming in. Steve Baskerville was also quite humorous. Also worked with John Coleman on occasion. Nice guy but a bit of a loose cannon when it came to forecasting. Tried to reel in in a few times but he wanted no part of it. I was right every time but it went unspoken about. Moving from the old office to the new one was a refreshing experience. We got a WINDOW ! Many stories I could tell.

27 here.

Cold morning with frost. Low of 32. Nice weather but I'd rather watch oil based paint dry. Boring pattern continues.

NJ October weather Summary: https://www.njweather.org/content/tranquility-october-2023-recap Seems like November continues the trend of October. Zzzzzzzz for at least the next week to 10 days. Nothing resembling a good cold shot in our immediate future that's for sure.

You aren't kidding. At least for the next 7-10 days a real snooze fest. Boring.

Low this morning was 24.8. Heavy frost and killing freeze.

Overnight low of 36 here. Rainfall for October at my location was a rather scant 2.12". Wet year to date at 49.80".