MANDA

We know that is not happening and I'd make a sizeable wager against it happening.

I'd have to agree. I'm thinking 110-120. Much will depend on how Ian cycles overnight and into tomorrow morning.

Again another slight nudge southeast at 5pm with TPC projected landfall near Charlotte Harbor. No change in forecast surge numbers on FL west coast with 8-12' from Longboat to Bonita. Intensity at landfall a bit questionable but seems as though Cat. 3 is most likely at this time. Major impacts likely central and southwestern FL coast from large and expanding wind field, surge and excessive rainfall.

You can sure see how Ian would have weakened coming into the Northern Gulf coast. DP's right to the gulf coast in the mid to upper 40's and PW generally just about .50". Definitely not the case from Tampa southward. Also very dry over the southeast so very cautious about Ian maintaining fully tropical characteristics once off the N FL coast if that track is realized. Will have ample supply of dry air to ingest. Most of the wind generated over the GA/SC/NC coast I think would come from the pressure gradient with big high to the north and lower pressure of Ian to the south. We'll see. I'm not looking for any notable second landfall.

The moat feature has almost completely filled in and nice convective band is rotating around from the SW side. Eye is very circular and has been contracting. Tremendous hot tower erupting on NW side. Based on satellite and radar looks to me like Ian is still in intensification mode. We'll see what recon finds. Certainly has not weakened or lost any organization this afternoon. Would expect TPC to either keep track steady or most likely nudge it a slight distance SE for a landfall point. Not by much maybe 10-15 miles based on 12Z models /ensembles and 18Z tropical models.

Looks to be tightening up for landfall near or just north of Charlotte Harbor.

Looks to be tightening up for landfall near or just north of Charlotte Harbor.

If correct not a good time to have that happen. It will have time to "recover" / tighten up before landfall. If it did not tighten up then the result would be a much more spread out wind field. We'll have to see how this goes.

Closer in look through 12Z Wed. EURO and GFS clearly aligned for a wetter solution for most of this forum. It will be most welcome for the south shore LI crew if it works out. Chances certainly have gone up for something decent over the last 12 hours.

Yep, entirely different animal than it coming to the Northern Gulf coast ingesting dry air. Much more classic scenario and favorable conditions for a major landfall. Not good. EURO track verbatim coming in near or a tad north of Charlotte Harbor would bring terrible surge and wind damage. Like Charley but over a much wider area.

Only way out is for landfall Marco Island on South. Anything north of there is going to inflict much damage and hurt. Not sure that Marco Island on south can be pulled off at this point.

Based on current trends (models, satellite and radar) I think the furthest north Ian landfalls is Venice. Most likely landfall IMO between Port Charlotte and Naples. Clearly looks to me to be moving NNE. It is feeling the trough. Barring an ERC (not something that can be forecast) looks to landfall as a strong 3 to possibly low 4? Satellite presentation is extremely impressive. Obviously conditions will be the worst near and to the right of landfall location but it is going to be bad over a large area of coastline. Some areas between Venice and Naples are very surge prone.

Looking great. Satellite presentation is super impressive. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop120.html

This would be so welcome if it is real. Based on trends with Ian this morning I think the chances for decent rainfall reaching into this forum have increased over the last 12 hours. We'll see what future trends show. Way to early to lock in these amounts but encouraging to see.

That plainly says to me that another nudge to the right is coming with the 5pm advisory. Little doubt in my mind about that.

Took a little longer to get going early on but Ian has not disappointed over the last 12-18 hours. Atmosphere was primed for this to happen and SST ideal. Once it got vertically aligned off it went.

TPC has once again nudged right with 11am advisory. This is coming in south of Tampa. In fact they have lowed the surge forecast for Tampa Bay and increased it to 8-12' further south. Surge disaster for Tampa Bay is off the table in my opinion. Still noteworthy and potentially damaging but not the disaster it could have been. This further south lnadfall also means Ian could be coming in near or just below peak intensity as water is warm and "shear damage" will be more negligible. Only an ERC could change intensity significantly before landfall but that would also expand the wind field so not sure that is best scenario. Heavy to excessive rainfall along the path. Only saving grace for wind damage for FL east coast will be slow movement and winds should fall off so that sustained hurricane force winds should not be felt on the east coast expect maybe in a few gusts. Tampa disaster averted but going to be BAD further south over a much larger area than Charley in 2004. Also think it is possible this gets another nudge or two to the right in coming TPC advisories. The southeast trend probably not quite done.

Floyd was another great example over NJ. Lived through that and it was a disaster over parts of NNJ. Floyd itself was a shell of itself with is arrived up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Parts of NNJ had up to 12" rainfall.

I hope the 1/2" makes it that far north. Questionable in my mind. Hopefully it does especially for the sake of those on the south shore of L.I. who have been long suffering and screwed over at nearly every turn over the last several months. Fingers crossed.

Looking better for Tampa and immediate vicinity this morning in terms of avoiding worst possible storm surge. Huge difference center going near or north vs. off to the south. Means difference of water getting pushed into the bay or being blown out. Let's hope recent trends hold and center crosses south of Tampa. IMO that is likely based on recent model trends. Trends over the last few days in fact have been indicating a gradual nudge to the right and TPC has been on top of it with advisories being nudged eastward with each issuance. Heavy to excessive rainfall still going to be an issue for a large part of Florida peninsula. Of course one persons gain is another ones loss. The track further south means the ante is upped in terms of a stronger landfall, perhaps near or just off peak. There is going to be a 9-12' surge for someone.

TPC has again nudged the track a little to the right. Looks to me as if they are calling for landfall very near or just north of Tampa. If that track is realized the slow movement to me implies about 24 hours of water piling into Tampa Bay being pushed along by 80-100 mph winds. That in addition to water piling up before that 24 hour period. If that track is realized it is going to be a bad scene up into Tampa Bay. Current surge forecast is 5-10 feet. Would not be surprised if that forecast was increased depending how things evolve over the coming 18-24 hours. Satellite has been becoming more impressive every hour during the day today. Exact track and intensity very important to exactly how bad it gets in an around Tampa. Seems to me the best chance for Tampa to avoid the absolute worst would be for this to cross the coast and come in to their south...i.e. like the 18Z Icon. A distance of 10-20 miles will make a big difference.

All signs point to dry weather pattern into next week. Any remnant moisture from Ida looks to get squeezed out to the south of NJ. Maybe SNJ gets something meaningful (1-2") but not even sure about that. Just can't seem to get the tables to turn to get the Northeast into a wetter pattern.

So agreed. That is about as close as you could have come to a disaster and have avoided it. Someday it will happen but was not to be with Dorian. As storm like Dorian moving east to west toward a south Florida major metro would be epic disaster.

Tampa is about the latitude where conditions are going to become rapidly unfavorable to maintain a strong hurricane. Intensity will fall off quickly north of Tampa Latitude - especially with very slow movement. Satellite presentation is going to degrade quickly once past about 28N.

Exactly. Until that starts to correct TPC track adjustments will be minor. Also, Tampa still fully in the "cone" any tug to the right, by even 15-20 miles will put Tampa under the gun for the worst of the surge. Not over by a long shot for serious surge flooding into Tampa Bay. For Tampa to experience the worst possible surge the center would need to cross the coast just north of the metro area. Angle of approach also important and we're not likely to see the worst case scenario as far as that goes. Ian will be moving NNE approaching Tampa as opposed to worst case NE or ENE. Makes a big difference. Also Ian moving slowly so any wind trajectory the keeps winds coming up into the bay will be for rather long duration. Delicate situation and not fully resolved yet IMO.