stormy

I went from 1.6 at 00 to 2.3 at 12z ECM. Mostly vortex instability possibly drawing a little off coastal qp and frontal precip. for western folks imo.

We are basically in a dry pattern regarding winter storms. You can hash it it or dash anyway you wish, but that is a fact. The very dry progressive pattern northwest to southeast kicks potential storms off the east coast. The vortex over eastern Canada needs to relax. This will change in February, but will we still have enough cold air? Friday/Saturday? Possible, but not likely.

The trend is your friend. The 12z Euro snow map gives D.C. 2.5 inches vs .8" at 00z . The eastern shore of Maryland/ Delaware receives 6 inches vs. 2.5 at 00z. I receive 1.3 vs. 1.1 at OOz As I suggested Saturday, if it is still there tomorrow, the party is on.

Before the pattern flip, this might be possible. Nice to see the King GFS showing this. Lets look at this closer about Tuesday if it survives.

Everybody needs to take 10 deep breaths and chill out. This possible threat is 175 hours out. When I read many doomsday proclamations, I chuckle. All of this will change a dozen times during the next week. Remember, there is a threat 150 - 200 hours in the future. All of the hype and perceived expert hyperbole at this point means nothing.

Yes Bob, we are doing quite well in January! I have received 3.22" rain and melted snow the first 18 days. This will likely be the wettest month since September when I received 5.24" Regarding wet January's, during the past 20 years my wettest was 2013 with 4.48" rain and melted snow.

The latest models seem to be suggesting a major event. We all need to remember that this is 96 hrs. into the future and changes will occur. The trough entering the Great lakes and retreating HP over the North Atlantic will decide.

I believe most of us understand the problems up north and northeast. At least we can be thankful that we don't have an OTS southern slider.

The GFS leads the way again. No 50/50 and HP in the NA makes it very dicey. Some locations in the MA will be dumped on.

A lot of NAM bashing this morning and that is fine but I would like to make an observation regarding the late Sunday night/Monday morning event for my immediate area. At 2 pm Sunday, the following accumulation expectations from the models I sampled: GFS 15 inches, Euro 10 inches, GEM 11 inches, ICON 6 inches, NDFD 5 inches, 12 NAM 8 inches. I received a total of 8 inches. Yes, I am aware of all the variables that skew and taint these model wishcasts but this is an observation. Regarding Thursday night into Friday. This will be a quick hitting system with a likely Tennessee southern Virginia track that is mostly snow north of the track, likely 2 - 5 inches for a swath across central and northern Virginia.

The pre -event temperatures will result in rapid melting except in grassy and elevated surfaces unless the SFR is very heavy.

The Euro is finally getting the idea.... Better late than never but the Euro suffers.

The Euro is trying but just can't get the scent. If the GFS pulls this off, The Euro will drop a couple notches. Next Friday? I'll start paying attention about Tuesday.

.62" this morning. Not a "drought buster, but real nice! I was 10 inches below normal for last year.

Mid jan to Mid feb is really our last good window. Anything after that is a crap shoot and not that fun unless its a blizzard This is not intuition, but I would guess that mid January to mid March is a good bet to break the pattern. Mother Nature always balances.

The seasoned meteorologists say that when predicting rain or snow. When in Drought, leave it out. This dry pattern for rain or snow will break at some point. Until then, speculation about rain or snow is a moot point. .50" of rain is not a break in the pattern unless it is followed by much more. Is anyone smart enough to say when it will break?

Central Virginia needs 8 inches of rain to get back to normal. Anyone care to guess??

During the next 15 days, the Pacific should relax enough to pull out support for the SER. Mid and late January is promising.

In the very unlikely probability of verification. The SER would likely push into the OV or be an Apps. runner.

CBS 19 in Charlottesville reported at 6 pm only 1 inch of rainfall since late October and they are saying we need rain badly. This is seriously affecting the water table. A USGS test well in Rockingham County indicates the 250 ft. water table is 1 ft. lower than during the drought last summer!!! This is seriously affecting our subsurface water level for next spring and summer. Prayerfully, it will change to above normal precipitation during the late winter and spring. If not, we are in serious trouble in the spring.

After a very dry November, I have received only .09" of rainfall during the first 21 days of December. Normally, the first 21 days of December would give my location 1.68" of rain and melted snow.

.78" rainfall to date for July. Normal for July 19 would be 2.66" 30% of normal rainfall for July.

Real time radar depiction over southwest Virginia gives the 06z ECM,& HWRF the greatest accuracy. The GFS, GEM and both NAM's are out to lunch.

The westward shift overnight is pure Joy. The HWRF, HMON, NAM 3k and GEM all give my area much needed very beneficial rainfall on Thursday.

Its official. My rainfall total for May is .87". The driest in the last 42 years. The second driest was 1.60" in 1991.