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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Let's get this track later in Dec and early Jan when the airmasses are better!
  2. precip field much further west on the 3K NAM. Regular NAM only has about .50 QPF for the NYC area when as the 3K is triple that amount.
  3. Yeah the lack of a cold high ahead of time is the killer here.
  4. 18z GFS with its usual suppressed solution at this range....
  5. I'd agree. Classic case of later and later development as someone above noted...
  6. Euro has been slowly moving the precip max east last 3 runs. NE PA and Catskills get close to nothing now where the big rains and snows are now over New England.
  7. Thats why OP models are a waste of time beyond day 5 or 6
  8. GFS and CMC show a suppressed solution with almost no precip north and west of NYC. With no cold high to the north, I'd doubt such solutions
  9. it's a wind driven rainstorm for 98% of the board on a weekend day no less, why would anyone get excited over that?
  10. Euro is wet with up to 5 inches of rain in areas
  11. Coldest day here on Upton's forecast is next Monday with a high of 43-rest of the days are warmer. Seasonable to slightly above
  12. Good show here-had their been leaves on the trees we'd have a fair amount of issues-also the 11/16 storm took down some of the weak/dead wood.
  13. once the rain ends winds have a tougher time mixing down plus the LLJ is moving east now.
  14. would be rain anyway-no cold high-we usually don't do well with Low pressure north of the lakes
  15. all snowfall duds. The only one that delivered was 10-11 with the strong blocking that developed.
  16. That's why I'm hoping the pattern delays a bit-12/10- to 12/30 would be bit better....
  17. blocking would be great as long as there's some decent arctic air to lock in....
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