Yep, what looks great (or bad) in October and November doesn't always carry through to Dec-Mar. Last few years seemed to have a development that came out of nowhere and wrecked our winter (last year the PV and also the warm water NE of australia which kept the MJO in 4-5-6)
Yep big ol torch coming this winter after a cold November. It'll be interesting to see if the usual suspects go cold and snowy for a 3rd yr in a row....
Almost nothing here-but the band is approaching so maybe we'll get something. Some breezy conditions too, but by and large, the general public is saying "what storm" (we are under a Tropical storm warning here)
someone noted yesterday the storm would be ventilated by the incoming trough over the OV. Maybe that's the case for strengthening despite it being over borderline water temps
often as these systems move north into our latitude, the big rains shift to the north and western side of the low. With that said, the 12z Canadian shows what you're talking about and keeps the convection off to the east