Powerball

The SPC's discussion even mentions the potential of hurricane force winds with the MCS as it develops a cold pool

SPC has a 30% hatched risk area in the latest Day 1 Outlook, which stops just short of a moderate risk.

Day 1 outlook: SPC AC 040501 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist today across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through tonight. Damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough, noted late Sunday night in water-vapor imagery over southern California, will continue to migrate east across the Southern Plains later today. Modest height falls aloft will support weak cyclogenesis across northwest to north TX by mid to late afternoon along a stalled front. Richer boundary-layer moisture via 60-65 F dewpoints (currently noted along the TX Gulf coast) will continue to advect northward through the day. Storms are expected to develop in the afternoon and grow upscale as they move into the lower MS River Valley overnight. ...Central to Northwest TX... Thunderstorms are expected to develop around peak heating in the vicinity of the surface low and front. Elongated hodographs above 3 km and off-boundary storm motions should support a few initially discrete cells. The degree of low-level cloud cover (implied by latest guidance) and lingering inhibition by late afternoon casts some uncertainty into storm coverage - especially south of the surface low along the front and into south TX - but the combination of 8-9 C/km lapse rates and strong flow aloft will support the potential for significant hail with more isolated supercells. Continued lift in the vicinity of the low will foster gradual upscale growth with a corresponding increase in damaging gusts as the low shifts into northeast TX.

000 FXUS64 KFWD 040102 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 802 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday Night/ Bottom Line: Rain and thunderstorm chances begin increasing across North and Central Texas this evening/tonight with the potential for a few strong storms capable of producing small hail and strong wind gusts in our northwestern zones. The threat for strong and severe thunderstorms will increase late Monday afternoon through Monday night region-wide. All hazards including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible Monday. Additionally, heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and small stream flooding despite ongoing drought conditions. Meteorological Analysis: In response to the modest southerly breeze in place this afternoon, the poleward transport of Gulf moisture has served to sharpen a diffuse western north-central Texas surface dryline, extending from Quanah, TX southwestward towards Midland, TX. The warm sector is further outlined by a quasi-stationary cold front, associated with a northern stream shortwave trough advancing across the Northern Plains. Surface analysis showed the cold front draped from near Topeka in northeastern KS, to Cherokee in northwestern OK, to Childress in the southern TX panhandle. Regional radars indicate the initiation of convection in a fairly narrow corridor just ahead of the dryline. In this region, synoptic-scale ascent associated with the deepening upper trough to our west is arriving while localized lift focused along the dryline/cold front, low-level warm advection/surface heating, and a strengthening low-level jet which is sending a deep surge of moisture east of the dryline is supporting thunderstorm development. Latest high-resolution model guidance suggests that instability is locally confined along and just ahead of the dryline with a semi-discrete/discrete supercellular convective mode favored due to increasing effective shear and the orientation of mid-level flow in relation to the surface boundary. This activity is progged to move eastward through the late evening, crossing our northwestern/western zones overnight. As the convection becomes further displaced from the boundary, the environment will become less supportive of severe weather, however a few thunderstorms may still be strong enough to carry a threat for small hail and gusty downdraft winds. Even the most aggressive CAMs do not maintain convection to the Interstate 35 corridor so it is likely that most of North Texas will remain dry tonight. Low PoPs have been maintained across parts of North Texas through daybreak Monday as additional showers and sub-severe thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of residual outflow boundaries from decaying convection. By Monday morning, the stalled front will have settled over south-central Oklahoma and far western North Texas. Convective activity through the morning hours should remain anchored near this boundary though there is the potential for a few shallow warm advection showers to develop across North and Central Texas as low-level flow continues to transport moisture into the region (dewpoints near 60 degrees approaching the Red River). Most areas are likely to remain dry throughout much of the day however due to the absence of forcing in the lower levels and the delayed erosion of the EML/MLCIN. Though cloud cover will generally inhibit diurnal heating, ongoing WAA and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the approaching upper trough will lead to eventual destabilization as the nearly stationary front north of the region begins to be pulled south/southeast into our western zones. Convective intensity and coverage is expected to increase Monday evening and into the overnight hours as surface-based thunderstorms erupt near the front/dryline. Vertical veering of wind profiles with height should favor discrete supercells initially, with the highest potential further south in southwestern Central Texas along the dryline with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible. Upscale development into larger clusters and eventually an eastward- advancing QLCS continues to be the most probable evolution as storms will likely struggle to remain discrete amid the increasing low-level jet and deep-layer flow parallel to portions of the surface boundary. The CAMs have favored this evolution for several runs even as mesoscale details have wavered. This convective activity will progressively march across most of North and Central Texas before midnight. While the tornado and large hail threat will be higher with any storms that manage to remain discrete, the environment is still likely to be supportive of all severe weather hazards including areas of widespread damaging winds and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes given the strong low level shear in place. The general timing for the peak severe weather threat across our forecast area will be 7 PM CDT Monday to 12 AM CDT Tuesday, so it is very important for everyone to have multiple methods of receiving warnings through the overnight hours. In addition to the severe weather threat, locally high rain rates may result in isolated minor flooding, especially in low-lying and flood prone areas, despite the anticipated progressive pace of convection.

Today's slight risk area is gone with the latest outlook.

There was a MD for a possible watch in NW Texas and SW Oklahoma, but it has expired as storms have struggled to organize so far. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0391.html

I've looked at all the Hi-Res models, and they all show the entire Metroplex getting hit pretty good tomorrow evening. It's the first time since I moved here that I've seen such a consensus. Not a clean setup (synoptically-speaking), but could still deliver.

SPC AC 031730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. ...Central and northern Texas/southern Oklahoma east-southeastward to Louisiana and southern Mississippi... An upper trough is forecast to advance out of Desert Southwest/southern Rockies into the central and southern Plains Monday, supporting weak surface low pressure development over North Texas. As this occurs, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Panhandle and South Plains region, gradually overtaking a dryline across the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau area. Ongoing/elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from western North Texas/Oklahoma east-northeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, in a zone of warm advection north of a warm front, expected to lie across northern Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley. As this boundary gradually shifts northward toward the Red River Valley as the low develops, heating/moistening of the warm sector will result in moderate destabilization, though much of the warm sector will remain capped into the afternoon. Eventually, ascent near the dryline/front, and the low itself, should foster surface-based storm development -- perhaps as far west as the Concho Valley depending upon the location of the surface frontal advance. Initial storms will likely become supercells -- aided by favorably veering flow with height, and thus potential for all-hazards severe weather will evolve locally. With time, storms are expected to cluster together across the north-central Texas vicinity, with upscale growth likely during the evening as a strong southerly low-level jet develops. As the jet increases/veers, and increasingly strong southwesterlies spread atop the area, a well-organized -- eventually bowing -- MCS may evolve. CAM guidance suggests this evolution, which would then shift quickly east-southeastward across northeastern Texas through the evening and eventually parts of northern and central Louisiana overnight, reaching southwestern Mississippi late in the period. As such, potential for a more widespread wind event is evident, supporting an upgrade to 30% wind probability/ENH categorical risk. Along with the wind potential, large hail will be possible locally. Some tornado risk is also evident -- both with QLCS-type circulations embedded in the linear convection, as well as with any isolated/supercell storms which may evolve in advance of the MCS. ..Goss.. 04/03/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1821Z (2:21PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

As I sort of suspected would happen, there's now a broad enhanced risk area (including DFW) on the Day 2 outlook.

Latest Day 1 outlook was shrunken a bit and shifted ever so slightly SW: SPC AC 031620 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are most likely across parts of southwest Oklahoma into west Texas, centered on 5 to 10 PM CDT. A couple of strong to marginally severe storms are also possible across southeast Florida. ...Southwest OK to west TX... As a triple-point cyclone becomes established near KCDS, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in the early evening just ahead of this low in southwest OK and to the south-southwest of a wavy dryline towards the Lower Pecos Valley of west TX. A deep well-mixed boundary layer is expected near the dryline as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to low 90s. Modified moisture return will be limited to upper 40s to mid 50s surface dew points, yielding a confined plume of modest buoyancy with 600-1200 J/kg MLCAPE amid steep lapse rates. Effective bulk shear increasing to around 40 kts near the triple point should foster a threat for a couple high-based supercells. Otherwise, more muted deep-layer shear along the dryline should tend to favor transient supercell/multicell structures. Isolated severe wind gusts appear to be the most probable hazard, but a few severe hail events are also possible. The severe threat will wane after dusk as MLCIN rapidly increases given the relatively dry boundary layer, despite elevated convection likely increasing tonight in vicinity of the surface frontal zone across OK.

Today's risk area has also been expanded a bit: SPC AC 030521 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of southwest Oklahoma into western Texas this afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of strong storms are also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a prominent upper-level shortwave trough transversing the Great Lakes region, with a pair of weaker disturbances noted over the northern Rockies and approaching the southern CA coast. A weak surface low over the upper OH River Valley will migrate into the Northeast through the day while a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains will shift into the Plains by this evening. A lee trough/dryline will mix eastward into the Plains through the afternoon in tandem with the northern High Plains low. The combination of the falling surface pressure across the western Plains and a modest lee cyclone over the southern High Plains will strengthen southeasterly flow off the TX Gulf coast, spreading 50-55 F dewpoints into west TX and southwestern OK by late afternoon. ...Southwest Oklahoma into southwest Texas... Thunderstorm development appears likely in the vicinity of a weak surface low and along the surface trough/dryline, from southeast NM/west TX into western OK around peak heating. The observed Saturday evening Midland, TX RAOB reveals a dry boundary layer with around 7 C/km lapse rates aloft, which should be maintained through the day as weak broad scale ascent ahead of the CA wave steepens lapse rates. Initial storms are forecast to develop in a steep-lapse-rate environment, which may support a few dry microbursts across southwest TX. Loosely organized convection will move east by late afternoon/early evening into richer boundary-layer moisture as flow aloft strengthens. Consequently, the risk for large hail will accompany the more intense updrafts. Into the overnight hours, waning instability will diminish the severe potential.

Monday's outlook has been shifted a bit further NW into far southern OK, and a broad 5% tornado risk area has been added (including DFW): SPC AC 030556 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. ...OK/TX/ArkLaTex... A somewhat broad, and neutral to positive-tilt upper trough over the southwestern U.S. will develop eastward to the Ozarks/Sabine Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Additionally, a south/southwesterly low-level jet will increase to around 40-50 kt during the evening and overnight across eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. The evolution of surface pattern appears somewhat messy and uncertain. A stalled front will reside from northwest TX into central OK and the Mid-MS Valley early in the period. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing along this boundary Monday morning across OK and far north TX. This activity should spread eastward or dissipate through the morning, but steep midlevel lapse rates could allow for some marginal hail. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward through the day, with 60s surface dewpoints as far north as the Red River/far southern OK possible by afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints may make it as far north as I-20. Coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate destabilization is expected despite somewhat modest diurnal heating. An EML/capping around 850-700 mb will likely limit thunderstorm activity for much of the day across TX. By early evening, a weak low is forecast to develop over northwest TX and a cold front will shift east across OK/north TX to the ArkLaTex overnight. Initial supercells are possible in the vicinity of the surface low and southward along the cold front/dryline composite. While storms maintain discrete mode, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across north/central TX. However, it is unclear how long discrete cells may be maintained. An increasing low-level jet and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary suggests upscale development into a QLCS is likely. Nevertheless, favorable low-level shear will exist and support mesovortex formation within any line that develops. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible across parts of north/east TX into the ArkLaTex during the evening/nighttime hours.

Just curious, why is this in the complaint thread?

SPC Day 2 Outlook https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma Sunday evening. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of strong storms also are possible across west Texas and the southern Florida Peninsula. ...OK/TX... Westerly low-amplitude flow across the western half of the CONUS will amplify as a midlevel shortwave trough develops east/southeast to the Upper MS Valley vicinity. A second midlevel trough will pivot eastward across the southwestern states as well. A weak shortwave impulse will eject eastward across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains during the late afternoon/evening ahead of the western trough. This lead impulse will provide increasing ascent across western TX into OK by late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift east/southeast across the central Plains and into northern OK during the afternoon/evening. This front will stall across northwest OK as a weak surface low is forecast to develop over eastern NM/western TX. A dryline also will exist from near the TX Panhandle/western OK border into southwest TX around 00z. Increasing southerly low-level flow will result in modest moisture return to the east of the dryline/south of the cold front, with dewpoints generally reaching into the mid 50s F to possibly near 60 F. While boundary-layer moisture will be modest, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing midlevel moisture will support MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg. A weak capping inversion may preclude convective initiation until after 00z when a 35-45 kt low level jet is expected to increase and strong ascent arrives with the shortwave impulse. Once storms develop, vertically veering wind profiles with 35+ kt effective bulk shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs will support supercells capable of large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layer air also will support strong, locally damaging gusts. The severe threat should diminish/become more conditional with southward extent given weaker forcing and potentially stronger capping. However, should convection develop southward along the dryline across parts of west TX, sporadic strong gusts and hail could accompany this activity for a few hours during the late afternoon/early evening. SPC Day 3 Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html SPC AC 020734 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across central/eastern Texas, and spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A neutral to positively tilted upper trough will quickly eject east from the southwest U.S. to the Ozarks/east Texas on Monday. A large warm sector ahead of the trough will result in a broad area of severe potential from central/eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. A surface low over northern IL will dissipate as it shifts east across the Midwest, leaving a nearly stationary cold front extending from the mid-MS Valley into central OK and western TX. As the western trough shifts east, a weak surface low is forecast to develop over western TX and track east in the vicinity of north TX or southern OK. Low-level southerly flow will transport mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints northward into central and eastern TX and low to mid 60s as far north as the Red River Valley. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a dryline, and also in the warm advection regime in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary cold front across central/southern OK. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing quickly with height, will support initial supercells across the warm sector from central into eastern TX. Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible with this activity through the afternoon/evening hours. As the low-level jet increases during the evening, upscale development into an eastward-advancing MCS is possible across the Sabine Valley vicinity. During the evening and overnight hours, the southwesterly low-level jet will increase and spread east across LA and the lower MS Valley into western AL. A warm front extending from the ArkLaTex vicinity to southern MS/AL during the evening will lift northward through the overnight hours to roughly central MS/AL, and will demarcate the northern extent of at least mid-60s surface dewpoints. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with any MCS/QLCS that develops across TX/LA and shifts eastward overnight, as well as with any semi-discrete convection that may develop. Forecast hodographs across the region will be quite large given the strength of low-level flow, and instability will be more than sufficient to support a risk for damaging gusts a few tornadoes. ..Leitman.. 04/02/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1123Z (6:23AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Even if the strong/severe storms don't hit DFW directly, there seems to be good model consensus that a thunderstorm complex will develop close enough to DFW's flight paths, which might cause delays merely due to the turbulence while flying through the storm clouds.

Looks good to me!

Those studies do suggest the drying out of the atmosphere is part of the reason, but I also suspect it has to do with the wind currents becoming progressively faster. Systems get shoved off to the east so fast when they blow off the Rockies that it limits the amount of time for atmospheric recovery to support significant severe weather outbreaks, with the window for moisture return being limited the further west you get and updrafts getting sheared apart. That's probably the same reason it's so difficult to get a storm system like the 1978 Blizzatd today.

Jokes aside with the bolded, there has definitely been a steady statistical decrease in the frequency of tornadoes over the past several decades in the current area known of "Tornado Alley," as well as a shift SE in the statistical center of activity. https://earthsky.org/earth/tornado-alley-dixie-climate-change/#:~:text=We found a notable decrease,and Kentucky into southern Indiana. https://theweatherstationexperts.com/is-tornado-alley-shifting-east/

An article yesterday from CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling into question whether "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name... An article on CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling to question whether "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name... https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/31/weather/march-tornado-record-climate/index.html

An intra-hour high of 70°F yesterday saved DFW from breaking its current 70°F+ streak the past 7 days. Should continue at least through Sunday, maybe longer.Also, March ended up right around normal, with a departure of +0.3°F.

I've been to Springdale once and met a few people there through my work. It was a cute, prosperous, bustling little town. It definitely sucks to see this. Hopefully they'll have a smooth and speedy recovery.

It's a whopping 94*F at DFW now. Definitely exceeded my expectations. Also 2 degrees shy of the record high, BTW.

For DFW, it seems December alone was so extremely warm that it helped the entire 2021-2022 winter crack the top 10 warmest list (#10 specifically), even with January only around average and February well below average.