Powerball
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Everything posted by Powerball
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Starting to get peeks of sun here... -
Those storm are pretty far removed from the surface-based instability. For now, they should only pose a hail threat. That said, they seem to be forming off the nose of the LLJ along the prefrontal trough.
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They added a 15% tornado area around College Station, as well as a decent sized 45% hatched wind area.
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You can also see their skepticism about the threat levels up towards DFW (for understandable reasons). That said, can't argue against the model trends either.
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It's a weak cap that's been show from time to time on the NAM and other hi-res models (-25 to -50 J/KG of CINH), which isn't much, but it could be just enough to keep storm development along the dry line from getting too intense as the better dynamics with the LLJ will have shifted to the NE.
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Yep. The only thing that has been retracted somewhat back to the SE is the 30% wind area, which makes sense. With the cool surface temps and the storms not organizing into a QLCS until east of here, that was always a relatively lower threat.
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Parameter-wise and synoptically, 00z NAM was similar to the 00z HRRR. The big difference that the NAM maintain a relatively stout cap, which keeps convective coverage/intensity in check.
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Day 1 Enchanced Riak Area was expanded just far enough NW to technically include Fort Worth and Dallas proper, but they stoped just short of including the entire Metroplex. And this was mainly for the wind threat. Location of other probabilities didn't really change, expect the hail threat area taking a bit more of a NW to SE orientation.
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The radar's already been posted above. Here's the sounding:
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00z HRRR is really ominous for DFW tomorrow evening, including a PDS Tornado sounding.
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At least for this sub, it's yet another messy setup. Not to mention, a lot of the regular posters here are in DFW, which is NW of the highest risk area. 2022 definitely seems to be starting right where 2021 left off, though.
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18z RAP also has a similar sounding to the 12z NAM for DFW Monday evening. But again, still a weak cap with the best forcing/dynamics just to the east.
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FWD has cleaned up the wording in their grids, and added a heavy rainfall mention with 1-2" of precipitation tomorrow. I know extreme drought conditions are ongoing, but they did mention the possibility of a Flash Flood Watch in their morning discussion. We'll see if they isssue one.
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That's capped (albeit weak) and the best forcing/dynamics are well off to the east by that point.
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That's probably because the MS/AL folks also post over at SouthernWX.
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Hmmm, not sure what to think about that 00z NAM. Definitely some changes with it.
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With the 00z runs, we're now getting into the time frame for the hi-res models which should hopefully aid in predictability.
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Contamination in that specific sounding aside, other soundings from the Mississippi Delta region show parameters roughly as extreme.
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I will add the caveat, the 06z and 12z GFS have gradually trended towards a NAM-like solution
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Won't need temps to get too warm for a tornadic weather in this setup, although it would keep the hail and damaging wind threat in check. For DFW specifically, the key is going to be how quickly the shortwave moves eastward. Same thing goes if the morning round of storms ends up overachieving, which would put the Metroplex under the influence of an outflow bubble. These factors would displace the LLJ (thus inflow of moisture / unstable air) further east. The NAM has been closest to a worst case scenario, but it's also kind of on its own. Most other models are a bit more progressive with the shortwave and bullish with the coverage of morning storms, focusing the severe threat more so towards East Louisiana and East Central TX.
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Welp, the 18z NAM trended towards the faster GFS solution...
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The latest 30-year averages nationwide, with the March/April averages being cooler and the September/October averages being warmer, definitely seem to suggest that we're seeing a gradual shift in when seasons start/end.
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If I remember correctly, March and May were both above normal in 2010 & 2012. But yeah, April was normal to coolish both times.
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The NAM is notably slower with the system on Monday, FWIW.
