Powerball

Tornado Warning TXC097-337-050045- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0028.220405T0010Z-220405T0045Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 710 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Montague County in north central Texas... Northwestern Cooke County in north central Texas... * Until 745 PM CDT. * At 710 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near St. Jo, or 10 miles southeast of Nocona, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Montague and northwestern Cooke Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3389 9718 3384 9717 3380 9723 3365 9759 3374 9769 3391 9748 3389 9745 3384 9746 3382 9743 3382 9737 3388 9733 3386 9733 3387 9731 3389 9731 3386 9726 3390 9725 3392 9723 TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 226DEG 16KT 3372 9757 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ 30

There's another arch down around Mansfield/Burleson, over to Midlothoan/Waxahachie and then curling NE over to Forney/Rockwall/Terrell that gets hit a lot too. Gotta love Microclimates.

Mesoscale Discussion 0398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022 Areas affected...Central/North-Central Texas and extreme South-Central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 042325Z - 050100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 0030-0100z for portions of Central/North-Central Texas. DISCUSSION...Moist boundary-layer surge, characterized by mid 60s surface dew points, is advancing north across central TX and will soon spread into the Metroplex. Latest satellite and radar imagery support this with scattered showers now evident just east of Waco into Ellis County. Given the approaching short wave there is increasing concern that scattered supercells will evolve within this more buoyant, and strongly sheared environment. Current thinking is the warm frontal position may not advance appreciably north from its current position and given the amount of convection observed over southern OK this seems reasonable. As LLJ strengthens into the Arklatex this evening there is increasing concern for the potential for tornadoes. Tornado watch will likely be warranted by 01z across this region. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/04/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31649784 34009674 33749523 31419622 31649784

Some cells are percolating in the northern suburbs of DFW. Just got what was attempting to be a downpour.

Mesoscale Discussion 0396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022 Areas affected...Southern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042200Z - 050000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may continue to mature over northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande into southern Texas over the next 1-2 hours. If/when this occurs, storms will pose a severe hail threat and possibly damaging winds. Trends will be monitored, and a watch is possible if this scenario appears likely. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and reflectivity mosaics show thunderstorms developing off the terrain of northern Mexico to the southwest of the Del Rio, TX area. Cloud top cooling has been noted in IR imagery over the past hour, suggesting that this activity is becoming increasingly robust. These storms may drift east towards the Rio Grande over the next 1-2 hours and encounter improved boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. A 20Z sounding from Del Rio captures this moisture well and also reveals meager mixed-layer inhibition and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as well as an elongated, nearly straight hodograph above 1 km. This environment will likely maintain the northern Mexico convection and support eventual storm splitting (with an attendant large hail/wind risk) across parts of southern TX. The severe risk will be conditional on this convection actually moving off the terrain, but has been depicted in latest HRRR guidance, which lends credence to the scenario. Trends will be monitored and a watch may be needed if confidence in this scenario continues to increase. ..Moore/Thompson.. 04/04/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29570125 29960102 30350046 30420007 30319955 29739933 28739931 28369953 28269991 28410037 28580054 29080085 29300106 29570125

There does seem to be good clearing to the west, south and east of here. Maybe it'll get here soon, lol.

Really? I'm right down the street from you and ever since the brief attempt at clearing I mentioned earlier, we've been stuck under a mix of residual stratus and cirrus debris. EDIT: Or when you mean "N. Dallas," do you mean The Colony (not the neighborhood North Dallas)?

And here we go... Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC155-275-042030- /O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0061.220404T1947Z-220404T2030Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 247 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Foard County in northern Texas... Northwestern Knox County in northern Texas... * Until 330 PM CDT. * At 247 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 15 miles southeast of Guthrie, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. * Locations impacted include... Benjamin, Gilliland and Truscott. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3399 9986 3371 9950 3342 9999 3383 10000 3384 10004 TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 228DEG 34KT 3352 10009 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH $$ Zwink

@canderson I don't know if your flight is still set for 6:30pm, but you might be able to make it out of there. Models have trended slower with the storms getting into DFW.

From what I've observed in the past, when the outline is purple, they're undecided on which type of watch they want to go with. Blue = Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and Red = Tornado Watch.

Mesoscale Discussion 0394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022 Areas affected...Portions of north-central/northwest TX and far southern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041916Z - 042145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two will increase this afternoon and evening. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...19Z surface observations show a nearly stationary front across parts of northwest TX into far south-central OK. The warm sector along and south/east of this boundary continues to destabilize this afternoon, with surface temperatures reaching into the 70s and low 80s, and dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km have overspread this region, and they are contributing to upwards of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE as of 19Z. Additional diurnal heating and gradually cooling mid-level temperatures as an upper trough ejects over the southern Plains should allow MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg to develop across parts of northwest/north-central TX over the next few hours. Recent visible satellite imagery shows gradually deepening thunderstorms along and just behind the front in northwest TX, along with mid-level convection farther east over the open warm sector. As substantial convective inhibition continues to erode (see 18Z FWD sounding), and modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector this afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to form along the front. Deep-layer shear of 35-50 kt will likely support supercells with this initial activity. Isolated large hail should be the main threat with this convection through the early evening, although some damaging winds could occur as well. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, some very large (2+ inches) hail appears possible. With time this evening, thunderstorms will likely grow upscale into a bowing cluster across north-central TX and far south-central OK as weak low-level southerly flow gradually increases. Damaging winds will become increasingly probable as this mode transition occurs. The tornado threat through the rest of the afternoon should remain fairly marginal given modest low-level shear (see recent VWPs from KDYX/KFWS). Still, a threat for a tornado or two may gradually increase this evening, mainly after 01Z, as low-level shear slowly strengthens. Regardless, the overall severe threat along/south of the front this afternoon will likely warrant watch issuance in the next couple of hours. ..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/04/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 31589970 32159991 33029988 33739956 34209908 34409842 34429774 34349692 33839687 33339718 32139816 31499876 31359924 31589970

The setup seems to have some similarities with May 2, 2007.

Seems a bit of clearing is trying to happen, which should help with surface destablization. That said, seems some weak showers are trying to percolate to the west of the Metroplex. They're not really blowing up into t'storms or a complex, but could continue percolating just enough to hamper stronger heating as they move ENE.

There are a couple: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/radar/ https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml

The SPC's discussion even mentions the potential of hurricane force winds with the MCS as it develops a cold pool

SPC has a 30% hatched risk area in the latest Day 1 Outlook, which stops just short of a moderate risk.

Day 1 outlook: SPC AC 040501 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist today across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through tonight. Damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough, noted late Sunday night in water-vapor imagery over southern California, will continue to migrate east across the Southern Plains later today. Modest height falls aloft will support weak cyclogenesis across northwest to north TX by mid to late afternoon along a stalled front. Richer boundary-layer moisture via 60-65 F dewpoints (currently noted along the TX Gulf coast) will continue to advect northward through the day. Storms are expected to develop in the afternoon and grow upscale as they move into the lower MS River Valley overnight. ...Central to Northwest TX... Thunderstorms are expected to develop around peak heating in the vicinity of the surface low and front. Elongated hodographs above 3 km and off-boundary storm motions should support a few initially discrete cells. The degree of low-level cloud cover (implied by latest guidance) and lingering inhibition by late afternoon casts some uncertainty into storm coverage - especially south of the surface low along the front and into south TX - but the combination of 8-9 C/km lapse rates and strong flow aloft will support the potential for significant hail with more isolated supercells. Continued lift in the vicinity of the low will foster gradual upscale growth with a corresponding increase in damaging gusts as the low shifts into northeast TX.

000 FXUS64 KFWD 040102 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 802 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday Night/ Bottom Line: Rain and thunderstorm chances begin increasing across North and Central Texas this evening/tonight with the potential for a few strong storms capable of producing small hail and strong wind gusts in our northwestern zones. The threat for strong and severe thunderstorms will increase late Monday afternoon through Monday night region-wide. All hazards including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible Monday. Additionally, heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and small stream flooding despite ongoing drought conditions. Meteorological Analysis: In response to the modest southerly breeze in place this afternoon, the poleward transport of Gulf moisture has served to sharpen a diffuse western north-central Texas surface dryline, extending from Quanah, TX southwestward towards Midland, TX. The warm sector is further outlined by a quasi-stationary cold front, associated with a northern stream shortwave trough advancing across the Northern Plains. Surface analysis showed the cold front draped from near Topeka in northeastern KS, to Cherokee in northwestern OK, to Childress in the southern TX panhandle. Regional radars indicate the initiation of convection in a fairly narrow corridor just ahead of the dryline. In this region, synoptic-scale ascent associated with the deepening upper trough to our west is arriving while localized lift focused along the dryline/cold front, low-level warm advection/surface heating, and a strengthening low-level jet which is sending a deep surge of moisture east of the dryline is supporting thunderstorm development. Latest high-resolution model guidance suggests that instability is locally confined along and just ahead of the dryline with a semi-discrete/discrete supercellular convective mode favored due to increasing effective shear and the orientation of mid-level flow in relation to the surface boundary. This activity is progged to move eastward through the late evening, crossing our northwestern/western zones overnight. As the convection becomes further displaced from the boundary, the environment will become less supportive of severe weather, however a few thunderstorms may still be strong enough to carry a threat for small hail and gusty downdraft winds. Even the most aggressive CAMs do not maintain convection to the Interstate 35 corridor so it is likely that most of North Texas will remain dry tonight. Low PoPs have been maintained across parts of North Texas through daybreak Monday as additional showers and sub-severe thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of residual outflow boundaries from decaying convection. By Monday morning, the stalled front will have settled over south-central Oklahoma and far western North Texas. Convective activity through the morning hours should remain anchored near this boundary though there is the potential for a few shallow warm advection showers to develop across North and Central Texas as low-level flow continues to transport moisture into the region (dewpoints near 60 degrees approaching the Red River). Most areas are likely to remain dry throughout much of the day however due to the absence of forcing in the lower levels and the delayed erosion of the EML/MLCIN. Though cloud cover will generally inhibit diurnal heating, ongoing WAA and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the approaching upper trough will lead to eventual destabilization as the nearly stationary front north of the region begins to be pulled south/southeast into our western zones. Convective intensity and coverage is expected to increase Monday evening and into the overnight hours as surface-based thunderstorms erupt near the front/dryline. Vertical veering of wind profiles with height should favor discrete supercells initially, with the highest potential further south in southwestern Central Texas along the dryline with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible. Upscale development into larger clusters and eventually an eastward- advancing QLCS continues to be the most probable evolution as storms will likely struggle to remain discrete amid the increasing low-level jet and deep-layer flow parallel to portions of the surface boundary. The CAMs have favored this evolution for several runs even as mesoscale details have wavered. This convective activity will progressively march across most of North and Central Texas before midnight. While the tornado and large hail threat will be higher with any storms that manage to remain discrete, the environment is still likely to be supportive of all severe weather hazards including areas of widespread damaging winds and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes given the strong low level shear in place. The general timing for the peak severe weather threat across our forecast area will be 7 PM CDT Monday to 12 AM CDT Tuesday, so it is very important for everyone to have multiple methods of receiving warnings through the overnight hours. In addition to the severe weather threat, locally high rain rates may result in isolated minor flooding, especially in low-lying and flood prone areas, despite the anticipated progressive pace of convection.

Today's slight risk area is gone with the latest outlook.

There was a MD for a possible watch in NW Texas and SW Oklahoma, but it has expired as storms have struggled to organize so far. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0391.html

I've looked at all the Hi-Res models, and they all show the entire Metroplex getting hit pretty good tomorrow evening. It's the first time since I moved here that I've seen such a consensus. Not a clean setup (synoptically-speaking), but could still deliver.

SPC AC 031730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. ...Central and northern Texas/southern Oklahoma east-southeastward to Louisiana and southern Mississippi... An upper trough is forecast to advance out of Desert Southwest/southern Rockies into the central and southern Plains Monday, supporting weak surface low pressure development over North Texas. As this occurs, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Panhandle and South Plains region, gradually overtaking a dryline across the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau area. Ongoing/elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from western North Texas/Oklahoma east-northeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, in a zone of warm advection north of a warm front, expected to lie across northern Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley. As this boundary gradually shifts northward toward the Red River Valley as the low develops, heating/moistening of the warm sector will result in moderate destabilization, though much of the warm sector will remain capped into the afternoon. Eventually, ascent near the dryline/front, and the low itself, should foster surface-based storm development -- perhaps as far west as the Concho Valley depending upon the location of the surface frontal advance. Initial storms will likely become supercells -- aided by favorably veering flow with height, and thus potential for all-hazards severe weather will evolve locally. With time, storms are expected to cluster together across the north-central Texas vicinity, with upscale growth likely during the evening as a strong southerly low-level jet develops. As the jet increases/veers, and increasingly strong southwesterlies spread atop the area, a well-organized -- eventually bowing -- MCS may evolve. CAM guidance suggests this evolution, which would then shift quickly east-southeastward across northeastern Texas through the evening and eventually parts of northern and central Louisiana overnight, reaching southwestern Mississippi late in the period. As such, potential for a more widespread wind event is evident, supporting an upgrade to 30% wind probability/ENH categorical risk. Along with the wind potential, large hail will be possible locally. Some tornado risk is also evident -- both with QLCS-type circulations embedded in the linear convection, as well as with any isolated/supercell storms which may evolve in advance of the MCS. ..Goss.. 04/03/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1821Z (2:21PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

As I sort of suspected would happen, there's now a broad enhanced risk area (including DFW) on the Day 2 outlook.

Latest Day 1 outlook was shrunken a bit and shifted ever so slightly SW: SPC AC 031620 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are most likely across parts of southwest Oklahoma into west Texas, centered on 5 to 10 PM CDT. A couple of strong to marginally severe storms are also possible across southeast Florida. ...Southwest OK to west TX... As a triple-point cyclone becomes established near KCDS, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in the early evening just ahead of this low in southwest OK and to the south-southwest of a wavy dryline towards the Lower Pecos Valley of west TX. A deep well-mixed boundary layer is expected near the dryline as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to low 90s. Modified moisture return will be limited to upper 40s to mid 50s surface dew points, yielding a confined plume of modest buoyancy with 600-1200 J/kg MLCAPE amid steep lapse rates. Effective bulk shear increasing to around 40 kts near the triple point should foster a threat for a couple high-based supercells. Otherwise, more muted deep-layer shear along the dryline should tend to favor transient supercell/multicell structures. Isolated severe wind gusts appear to be the most probable hazard, but a few severe hail events are also possible. The severe threat will wane after dusk as MLCIN rapidly increases given the relatively dry boundary layer, despite elevated convection likely increasing tonight in vicinity of the surface frontal zone across OK.