Jump to content

SnoSki14

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,785

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    These things always get further north than initially modeled. 8 out of 10 times we're more worried about sleet/rain than cold/dry
  2. SnoSki14
    I'd be nervous if we were in the bullseye this far out as these things almost always come north. Having models keeping this south 6 days out is not a bad thing
  3. SnoSki14
    This reminds me of a lighter version of PDII. Wish it were a few days closer however large systems usually stay on guidance and don't shift that much.
  4. SnoSki14
    One of the strongest blocking patterns on record. AO will get pretty negative but NAO not so much.
  5. SnoSki14
    Nice to see CMC come aboard. There's more support than just the AI models. And these things usually trend north unless there's a massive -NAO type block
  6. SnoSki14
    Here's another real test to see how legit these AI models are.
  7. SnoSki14
    Way too early to make this declaration. At this stage the Euro was completely OTS on yesterday's system
  8. SnoSki14
    Very consistent
  9. SnoSki14
    Massive cold dome with trough out west and SE ridge in place. This will yield a massive overrunning storm. Yes there will be a brick wall somewhere but good chance it ends up affecting areas pretty far north. Very PDII esque on AI models
  10. SnoSki14
    Biggies are coming
  11. SnoSki14
    A very wintry weekend. Looks like a snow globe out there. And it should stick around for a while. Only real melting day is Thursday
  12. SnoSki14
    It's def picking up on the overrunning though. I'm thinking its suppression bias due to overdoing the cold dome is in play right now but we'll see.
  13. SnoSki14
    And then a monster coastal after that. Would be an incredible achievement in AI weather modeling if it's even 80 percent correct.
  14. SnoSki14
    This is a nowcasting situation now. I've stopped looking at models
  15. SnoSki14
    What indicators could suggest this?
  16. SnoSki14
    If the HRRR is right it will explode quickly between now and 4
  17. SnoSki14
    Huge if the AI models are anywhere close to being right next weekend
  18. SnoSki14
    Nearly identical to GFS AI
  19. SnoSki14
    PNA will be positive and MJO moves to phase 8. Multiple factors aligning for something big. And some winters it just wants to snow. We've been seeing that so far this season. Yes no biggies yet but it's coming.
  20. SnoSki14
    I genuinely think the pattern is pretty loaded for a large overrunning Miller A/B type storm in late Jan. And it's showing up in spurts across op runs. With today's event the AI models had the best handle several days out so definitely keep an eye on what they show.
  21. SnoSki14
    It's gonna snow a lot. Don't believe the extreme suppression that's being shown.
  22. SnoSki14
    The suppression is overdone.
  23. SnoSki14
    Will get 2"+ with the banding in central nj
  24. SnoSki14
    Yeah it's really coming down. If the coastal delivers later we might reach the high end advisory totals
  25. SnoSki14
    Big cold dome in place with trough expanding west signals big overrunning potential imo. Models strongly hinting at this now.
×
×
  • Create New...