SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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If it follows that playback then amounts will keep going up until start time
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I saw that and was in awe. I don't recall seeing a 60-72 hour ensemble prog that strong. The true scope of what's unfolding may not even be apparent yet if that's correct.
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Because it's not done trending yet.
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It tends to be more suppressed in general. Odd outputs sometimes. I remember with the Jan storm it kept spewing 3-4" totals over NYC and into my region too vs the 10"+ amounts we got.
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Having a 3 day ensemble mean have a 976 low is crazy.
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GEFS look really good
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If only it started tomorrow afternoon. Another harrowing day of model runs before the whole picture comes together
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I know we always worry about could go wrong but what if the storm is still trending towards a bullseye.
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The NAM would be a verified blizzard. It has sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 60+ pretty far inland.
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Plus there's ensemble support. It's a bit early but the GFS has done really well with this, shockingly so. Very consistent too. Broken clock type scenario
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Very possible although ensembles suggest a westward lean which could hint at more west trends tonight and tomorrow
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Agree, Mt. Holly are the watch happy ones
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Got more maps for the EPS
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No watches from Mt. Holly yet. Still on the cusp here. Need another 50 mile west shift. Although they usually hold off until later afternoon
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Believe it or not this forum may actually be the most accurate when it comes to the weather. TV news usually lags behind and the stuff on social media & YouTube is mostly an overhyped joke.
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They definitely don't especially the closer we get towards spring. We're the crazy ones
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Depending on Euro we could see watches late today. All models trending towards a significant (6"+) storm.
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Will be looking at GEFS to see if they stay the same or improve
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Agreed the surface depiction doesn't capture this as well. Amounts would be higher
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Really solid trends right now. Will the GFS hold? Even a slight shift would be ok
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I'm by New Brunswick so on the cusp of potentially bigger amounts so let's keep the NW trend going
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If this were trending like 5 days out then maybe but NW ticke in this range are welcomed
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Those models also suck.
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Strong support from GEFS
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GEFS are loaded once again The bulk of the heavy snows (on GFS) seem to fall in the evening and overnight hours for the sun angle, warm temps crowd.
