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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    It's def picking up on the overrunning though. I'm thinking its suppression bias due to overdoing the cold dome is in play right now but we'll see.
  2. SnoSki14
    And then a monster coastal after that. Would be an incredible achievement in AI weather modeling if it's even 80 percent correct.
  3. SnoSki14
    This is a nowcasting situation now. I've stopped looking at models
  4. SnoSki14
    What indicators could suggest this?
  5. SnoSki14
    If the HRRR is right it will explode quickly between now and 4
  6. SnoSki14
    Huge if the AI models are anywhere close to being right next weekend
  7. SnoSki14
    Nearly identical to GFS AI
  8. SnoSki14
    PNA will be positive and MJO moves to phase 8. Multiple factors aligning for something big. And some winters it just wants to snow. We've been seeing that so far this season. Yes no biggies yet but it's coming.
  9. SnoSki14
    I genuinely think the pattern is pretty loaded for a large overrunning Miller A/B type storm in late Jan. And it's showing up in spurts across op runs. With today's event the AI models had the best handle several days out so definitely keep an eye on what they show.
  10. SnoSki14
    It's gonna snow a lot. Don't believe the extreme suppression that's being shown.
  11. SnoSki14
    The suppression is overdone.
  12. SnoSki14
    Will get 2"+ with the banding in central nj
  13. SnoSki14
    Yeah it's really coming down. If the coastal delivers later we might reach the high end advisory totals
  14. SnoSki14
    Big cold dome in place with trough expanding west signals big overrunning potential imo. Models strongly hinting at this now.
  15. SnoSki14
    Really nice snows down to FL panhandle on models. The disconnect between the northern stream and the dead southern stream have made these unusual occurrences more plausible despite overall warming.
  16. SnoSki14
    At least today worked out. Take what you can get. I'm more interested in late Jan to early Feb...best potential in years.
  17. SnoSki14
    It's still useless beyond 12hrs and it was too far west with the heavier stuff.
  18. SnoSki14
    Best pattern in 5 years
  19. SnoSki14
    Hoping these little events are the precursor to an actual snowstorm in late Jan. Hard to believe its been 5 years since our last 12"+ snowstorm.
  20. SnoSki14
    It's dumping right now. We definitely got what PA should have gotten
  21. SnoSki14
    This will definitely help with colder thermals for tomorrow. Dynamics are my biggest concern
  22. SnoSki14
    I'm very conflicted about tomorrow and so are models. Thermals and dynamics are a concern
  23. SnoSki14
    Heavy stuff right now. Very strong thermal gradient driving these rates.
  24. SnoSki14
    Anything beyond 4-5 days is pure fantasy but the pattern will support a lot more snow
  25. SnoSki14
    Rgem thermals tend to run too warm but it is concerning
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