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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Oh stop it's a solid 6-10" dump even with the warmest runs. This would be the biggest storm in years for many.
  2. SnoSki14
    The problem is the phasing. Without it you risk suppression, with it you risk a lot of mixing. You don't have an ideal setup out west given the trough placement.
  3. SnoSki14
    The front end thump is solid. There's a higher ceiling with this than usual too.
  4. SnoSki14
    Yes but we do have an anchored and very strong Arctic high in place. Hence why highs will be in the teens on Sunday
  5. SnoSki14
    If we do look at the Nam it drops tons of snow before any mixing. And whatever snow we get will be encased in ice and will get locked in for days.
  6. SnoSki14
    Several models hinting that coastal low lingers, if not strengthens somewhat and drops a few inches Monday
  7. SnoSki14
    And it over amplifies a lot
  8. SnoSki14
    Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model
  9. SnoSki14
    Is that mostly snow?
  10. SnoSki14
    I'm going with the wall of snow to sleet idea. We could easily accumulate 6-8+" over a few hours if it comes in fast and heavy. Heavy snowfall rates could also help keep mid levels colder so we hold onto snow longer until things lighten up enough where we fully go to sleet
  11. SnoSki14
    Don't assume it can't trend better either. Either way we don't control the weather...no sense in getting angry about it if it doesn't work out.
  12. SnoSki14
    Yeah but 4-6" of snow plus 1-2" of pure sleet on top when temps are like 20F would still be quite bad.
  13. SnoSki14
    Nothing we can do about it. I really don't want inches of sleet though, that would really suck.
  14. SnoSki14
    Best GEFS yet. Much better than OP which was probably more fluky than anything. They usually send them out for most major, impactful systems and it helps refine forecasts and gives us more data which is always good but it won't have huge ramifications for this type of system. If we were talking a Boxing Day scenario where 50 miles in track made all the difference then sure.
  15. SnoSki14
    I don't expect any drastic changes even with that data. Very strong consensus for 4 days out. There will be some waffling and minor adjustments as is normally the case but nothing more.
  16. SnoSki14
    Love seeing the GFS more subdued. It usually means the most amped models are probably too amped and the correct solution is between the two. Euro/GFS AI look to be on the money right now
  17. SnoSki14
    This would require the WAA snows plus snows from coastal. I think 6-12 is the best range area wide and that could skew in the 6-10 direction or 8-12.
  18. SnoSki14
    From 3 to 34 here. Really looking forward to tomorrow's 50F
  19. SnoSki14
    Ugh the sleetstorm from hell
  20. SnoSki14
    Besides a few ticks here or there I don't see tons of changes going forward Big systems inside 5 days don't alter much.
  21. SnoSki14
    I'd go 6-10 or 8-12
  22. SnoSki14
    That would be the biggest storm in years. If you're complaining about that then find a new hobby
  23. SnoSki14
    I wonder if models are holding onto the primary too long.
  24. SnoSki14
    That's only for weenies on FB & Twitter
  25. SnoSki14
    I smell a biggie on the horizon.
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