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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Several models hinting that coastal low lingers, if not strengthens somewhat and drops a few inches Monday
  2. SnoSki14
    And it over amplifies a lot
  3. SnoSki14
    Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model
  4. SnoSki14
    Is that mostly snow?
  5. SnoSki14
    I'm going with the wall of snow to sleet idea. We could easily accumulate 6-8+" over a few hours if it comes in fast and heavy. Heavy snowfall rates could also help keep mid levels colder so we hold onto snow longer until things lighten up enough where we fully go to sleet
  6. SnoSki14
    Don't assume it can't trend better either. Either way we don't control the weather...no sense in getting angry about it if it doesn't work out.
  7. SnoSki14
    Yeah but 4-6" of snow plus 1-2" of pure sleet on top when temps are like 20F would still be quite bad.
  8. SnoSki14
    Nothing we can do about it. I really don't want inches of sleet though, that would really suck.
  9. SnoSki14
    Best GEFS yet. Much better than OP which was probably more fluky than anything. They usually send them out for most major, impactful systems and it helps refine forecasts and gives us more data which is always good but it won't have huge ramifications for this type of system. If we were talking a Boxing Day scenario where 50 miles in track made all the difference then sure.
  10. SnoSki14
    I don't expect any drastic changes even with that data. Very strong consensus for 4 days out. There will be some waffling and minor adjustments as is normally the case but nothing more.
  11. SnoSki14
    Love seeing the GFS more subdued. It usually means the most amped models are probably too amped and the correct solution is between the two. Euro/GFS AI look to be on the money right now
  12. SnoSki14
    This would require the WAA snows plus snows from coastal. I think 6-12 is the best range area wide and that could skew in the 6-10 direction or 8-12.
  13. SnoSki14
    From 3 to 34 here. Really looking forward to tomorrow's 50F
  14. SnoSki14
    Ugh the sleetstorm from hell
  15. SnoSki14
    Besides a few ticks here or there I don't see tons of changes going forward Big systems inside 5 days don't alter much.
  16. SnoSki14
    I'd go 6-10 or 8-12
  17. SnoSki14
    That would be the biggest storm in years. If you're complaining about that then find a new hobby
  18. SnoSki14
    I wonder if models are holding onto the primary too long.
  19. SnoSki14
    That's only for weenies on FB & Twitter
  20. SnoSki14
    I smell a biggie on the horizon.
  21. SnoSki14
    This model did really well inside 5 days with the last system and its performance is beating the regular op models
  22. SnoSki14
    It did really well with the last system for us in Jersey vs the GFS OP (too amped) and Euro OP (suppressed).
  23. SnoSki14
    Wow look at that coverage
  24. SnoSki14
    They can but the initial wall of snow is very likely...unless models suddenly flip to suppressed again
  25. SnoSki14
    Good to have a mix of amped plus less amped solutions across models.
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