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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Nam looked really nice.
  2. SnoSki14
    You get the overrunning and then precip from coastal.
  3. SnoSki14
    Temperatures could make a big difference with regards to accumulation. I'm at 29F now, I see the city at 35-36 which is not good. Need 12z to hold or shift west otherwise 6z runs are more fluky than anything
  4. SnoSki14
    Really emphasizes that when things get warm they shatter records and the opposite side is only average to modestly BN at best.
  5. SnoSki14
    ???
  6. SnoSki14
    Nice test of the AI models, we'll see if they have a clue
  7. SnoSki14
    Best chance is late Jan into Feb. If nothing works out then honestly I don't know what it'll take to get a significant coastal storm.
  8. SnoSki14
    Hard disagree. There's nothing to stop it from trending NW
  9. SnoSki14
    There's a kicker out west that should keep this to our east otherwise this would probably trend too far west.
  10. SnoSki14
    There's heavy west lean potential here. Doubt it's done trending
  11. SnoSki14
    I think we'll get something in this period but the better stuff waits til late Jan into Feb. Upcoming pattern is likely the most favorable pattern for snow and significant snows that we've had in years. And peak snow climo too.
  12. SnoSki14
    I'll take a grazer this far out. These things always trend too far west in the end
  13. SnoSki14
    Snow chances will start to increase a lot in a week or so. MJO going to 8 again. Just not sure if it'll be more of what we saw in December or something more noteworthy. Hopefully the flow can slow down enough to allow shortwaves to dig and amplify.
  14. SnoSki14
    This has legs I think. Really nice ridge out west. Just hope the flow isn't too fast
  15. SnoSki14
    This week was always a long shot but I'd watch the 18th to see if models trend more favorably given the +PNA now setting up.
  16. SnoSki14
    I like the ensemble trends. Actually not bad considering it's still 4 days out.
  17. SnoSki14
    Yes by quite a bit. I guess that's all we can ask for right now.
  18. SnoSki14
    I think odds remain low for a snow event with this storm but at least there's something to track
  19. SnoSki14
    You can see how the GFS solution can happen but it also doesn't take much for it not to.
  20. SnoSki14
    Agreed. It's too soon for us to benefit. I'd be shocked to see much snow prior to late Jan. If anything does come before then consider it a huge bonus. Maybe the only consideration I'd give is a storm could occur during the +PNA spike aka pattern transition zone.
  21. SnoSki14
    Doesn't mean it will snow though. A CMC depiction is more likely. In fact until the MJO circles back around I wouldn't be surprised to see little snowfall until late Jan.
  22. SnoSki14
    That's one of the craziest evolutions I've seen depicted.
  23. SnoSki14
    What a crazy evolution that would be. Volatile weather pattern. Will see rapid run to run changes most likely.
  24. SnoSki14
    It's not just bad luck. CC is affecting the weather patterns. This is why the Great lakes storm track has been so dominant and we've had a pacific jet on steroids over the last decade (record warm ssts western Pacific). The classic coastal track and even miller Bs have been practically non-existent for several years now.
  25. SnoSki14
    Wish there weren't so many cooks in the kitchen and we had a clean PNA ridge because that's some explosive potential there.
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