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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    This will be the longest stretch of snow on the ground that I can remember. And that sleet will form a glacier essentially
  2. SnoSki14
    More sleet and snow. Those rates before the transition could be insane (3-4"/hr)
  3. SnoSki14
    And more room to get colder too. Models increasing precip aka a bigger thump and more sleet on top.
  4. SnoSki14
    Nam is useless after 48 hrs so not worried.
  5. SnoSki14
    Nam is my worst case. 6" of snow + 2-3" of sleet on top is nightmare fuel.
  6. SnoSki14
    Agreed Nam is trash beyond 48hrs Ok bye
  7. SnoSki14
    To be fair the icing potential, which will cause the biggest impacts is substantial and covers a massive region. This storm is a very big deal for many. We've dealt with a lot worse but those south will see historic winter weather.
  8. SnoSki14
    Agreed the historic storm will come later. This is just the beginning
  9. SnoSki14
    At least it'll be the weekend
  10. SnoSki14
    Sleet will happen, not much you can do but you'll get the wall of snow no matter what. At least we're not pulling our hair out over whether we'll get a near miss from a coastal. It doesn't get more brutal than missing a 1-2' storm by 50 miles.
  11. SnoSki14
    Man if the GFS idea is right about the quick coastal transfer then the ceiling is very high
  12. SnoSki14
    It transfers a lot faster. This is the best case scenario It'd be 14-20" pretty much area wide
  13. SnoSki14
    Let us pray. Its been trending with a faster coastal transfer.
  14. SnoSki14
    GFS is definitely not buying the amped camp
  15. SnoSki14
    Rgem is always over amped and runs warm btw. It's also very inaccurate beyond 48hrs
  16. SnoSki14
    Well they average like 5x we do so yeah
  17. SnoSki14
    That's why Mt Holly is going higher. Ratios for half the storm could be quite high given ideal snow growth and temps
  18. SnoSki14
    Mt. Holly and Co are betting on high ratios to start for higher totals. If ratios do hit 15:1 then maybe.
  19. SnoSki14
    Is that snow + sleet since technically sleet counts for totals.
  20. SnoSki14
    I hope we don't get 6-8" of snow with 2" of sleet on top. With temps as cold as they are that'll create a giant skating rink with horrendous plowing & travel conditions. That's far worse impact wise than a pure 12-15" snowstorm
  21. SnoSki14
    Agree 100% Rare possibility of more upside than downside I think. Also if precip falls hard enough near the transition zone that we could hold onto snow longer boosting amounts by 2-4"
  22. SnoSki14
    Sure would be nice for the GFS to score for once. GEFS also look great
  23. SnoSki14
    Yeah but every event is different. I'm going with wall of heavy snow to sleet and 6-10" region wide with locals 12+ Leaning on the colder side too. The scope and intensity of this airmass is much larger than what we're used to. It wouldn't surprise me to see models trend colder
  24. SnoSki14
    Oh stop it's a solid 6-10" dump even with the warmest runs. This would be the biggest storm in years for many.
  25. SnoSki14
    The problem is the phasing. Without it you risk suppression, with it you risk a lot of mixing. You don't have an ideal setup out west given the trough placement.
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