SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Depending on Euro we could see watches late today. All models trending towards a significant (6"+) storm.
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Will be looking at GEFS to see if they stay the same or improve
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Agreed the surface depiction doesn't capture this as well. Amounts would be higher
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Really solid trends right now. Will the GFS hold? Even a slight shift would be ok
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I'm by New Brunswick so on the cusp of potentially bigger amounts so let's keep the NW trend going
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If this were trending like 5 days out then maybe but NW ticke in this range are welcomed
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Those models also suck.
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Strong support from GEFS
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GEFS are loaded once again The bulk of the heavy snows (on GFS) seem to fall in the evening and overnight hours for the sun angle, warm temps crowd.
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Is the GFS really about to score a huge win?
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Compared to the GFS, yes but it shifted NW and was a big hit.
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I still think it's gonna be a whiff if I'm being honest but the odds of a grazer are going up.
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Huge shift in one run. Had pretty much nothing 2 runs ago.
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Geez look at some of those members too. I don't ever recall such a drastic EPS shift in this close range. Op run yes but not the ensembles
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Man this "hobby" sucks lol It's like gambling, you get so excited with a win only to likely lose it all next hand.
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Is there any legitimacy to the 18z runs not being as accurate?
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Agreed we need some follow through. This could be off hour run nonsense
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GFS model needs to be put down.
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I don't know about warmth though. Maybe near normal. I think the -WPO type pattern that's been in place since November will want to keep us cold. Not cold enough to get snow mind you, but just cold enough to annoy everyone hoping for spring weather
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I think the GFS needs to be retired. Inexcusable to be this out of step only 3 days out
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I agree with you. There's just too much interfering with a positive outcome. Maybe a grazer for coastal regions at best.
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Looks like a holdover from the November pattern that kept us colder all winter.
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I think you gotta go with the whiff runs. What's more likely, a huge blizzard or a whiff especially given the seasonal trends. My guess is the next few runs the gfs shifts east. AI models were also east this morning so there's no support of a 6z GFS solution. My forecast would be snow showers at best and a miss. Little to no snowfall
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Yeah odds are against it given the seasonal trends but it's fun having something to track. And at least spring is around the corner.
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We need to see the whiff models trend towards the GFS/CMC, GFS AI was a start. It's ok if the GFS/CMC aren't a bullseye yet but ensembles and other models need to trend towards them.
