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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
  2. SnoSki14
    Clearly I was wrong, this s/w is no joke and the confluence isn't enough to offset it. I would love to be proven wrong now and no I'm not trolling.
  3. SnoSki14
    Mid levels will warm quickly so a quick couple inches followed by sleet/dry slot and then maybe another inch or two as the storm pulls east. And this assumes models don't keep trending west because if they do then it's more like 1-3" snow to rain. Once north of I-80 amounts go up significantly.
  4. SnoSki14
    Nam continues the nw trend. No way that's happening. I think it'll be closer to 1-3/2-4"
  5. SnoSki14
    Mid levels should warm quickly though so it could be like an inch to sleet that gets washed away by rain. I think you'd be right if we didn't have a full day of runs continuing to trend north.
  6. SnoSki14
    Models keep trending north. I thought the blocking would be enough but it doesn't look like it. The north trend was my fear a couple days ago but then models went a bit east and now they're way NW.
  7. SnoSki14
    Given it's still trending NW I'm thinking it'll be a couple hours of snow to sleet to rain with a coastal hugger up to the city. Huge storm for SNE.
  8. SnoSki14
    Welp there goes our snowstorm, ugh I guess the PNA will kill us after all. If models keep trending west it'll be a couple hours of snow to rain.
  9. SnoSki14
    A PNA would force this storm further east. The block is strong but not strong enough.
  10. SnoSki14
    Dang if only we had more of a PNA those crazy totals in PA would've been over our area.
  11. SnoSki14
    Barely. It's a bit more inland but then it goes ENE. A lot of this is just noise. Take a break until tomorrow.
  12. SnoSki14
    Icon is trash. Rgem isn't good outside 36 hours. I'll take the Euro/Gfs combo right now.
  13. SnoSki14
    Nam trending in the right direction. Don't worry so much about what it's doing aloft with 850s and such... that'll correct as we get closer. More ticks S & E wouldn't surprise me. Models starting to really pick up on the confluence.
  14. SnoSki14
    Knock on wood but anyone getting 6"+ amounts will have a white Christmas this year. The grinch storm is gone, we still have blocking in place, and things actually get kinda favorable for more snow last week of December if the GEFS is correct. Models are also raising the heights around Alaska, which would help a lot with the cold supply.
  15. SnoSki14
    A lot of our New England neighbors were quick to dismiss the Gfs, which is fair given it was an outlier but it clearly hammered in the blocking/confluence idea.
  16. SnoSki14
    Yeah this would be a solid 12-16/18" storm. The lows gonna press against that block hard and I think it'll allow for some very strong bands to develop. A few local spots near 20" wouldn't surprise me.
  17. SnoSki14
    Models haven't wavered much for days, just little ticks here and there. Don't expect any major revelations in the next day or so that would change that.
  18. SnoSki14
    That's my thinking right now and most models share this idea, it's just that they take the low a bit further north before it goes east. I'd be more worried if I lived in SNE.
  19. SnoSki14
    In the end it wasn't much different further north. That confluence can't be denied. The gfs actually takes it ESE eventually.
  20. SnoSki14
    I think the worst case for us is an initial thump followed by a mid level dry slot and then some backend snows as the low slides east. I don't see how anyone in the NYC area and nearby counties sees less than 6-10" in this setup even with mixing.
  21. SnoSki14
    Nam still out of its best range but it tends to be very amped beyond 48hrs in general.
  22. SnoSki14
    Nam is garbage outside 36-48 hours. My final prediction is models trend more offshore/south beginning later tonight or tomorrow up until the storm happens. I like a gfs/euro compromise. The high won't be denied. I think some of the people that live further north in SNE are getting gaslit by the more amped models.
  23. SnoSki14
    It just seems odd to me that this storm could be so amped up against a pretty strong nearby high. The low isn't that strong either. Honestly I'd be shocked if the overly amped models didn't start trending south 24-36 hours before the storm hits. I think a Euro/Gfs compromise works best right now.
  24. SnoSki14
    Why are people so quick to dismiss the Gfs? It's one of the best performing models there is. Seems odd to outright throw it out. And gfs does very well in the 3 day timeframe.
  25. SnoSki14
    Really because it trended a lot weaker and further south than a few days ago. The Euro was the first to amp up today's storm but now it looks closer to the Gfs. I don't think people should be quick to dismiss the Gfs in the presence of a strong, cold high not too far north.
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