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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Definitely expect some snow in the nearby suburbs though.
  2. SnoSki14
    Euro would def give us some coastal flooding/wind issues.
  3. SnoSki14
    Definitely. I don't care about playing the jackpot games though. My area had basically nothing last winter so even 6"+ would be a huge win especially in a season where every major forecaster called for a snowless, torch winter.
  4. SnoSki14
    I'd be weary of the overly amped runs too given the strength and placement of the high. Hopefully we all cash in though. I do think the GFS was way too suppressed.
  5. SnoSki14
    Just keep in mind the Euro tends to overamplify systems while the Gfs can be more suppressed. I'll take a mix of the two for now and see what happens next couple days. NYC metro looks good even if it takes a more amped track.
  6. SnoSki14
    It's either gonna rain or snow, I don't see much sleet with this.
  7. SnoSki14
    It looks good to me.
  8. SnoSki14
    We thought the same would happen with some of those 09/10 storms but you can't deny the confluence. Granted the poor PNA would argue for a slight northerly component.
  9. SnoSki14
    Yeah that's why I didn't buy those overly amped runs.
  10. SnoSki14
    That's why strong -NAO/AO blocking is actually more favorable for us and the mid-atlantic than them. Sometimes it's even better for those south of the NYC metro.
  11. SnoSki14
    Yup agreed they should hope the storm trends stronger to buckle the confluence a bit.
  12. SnoSki14
    Incredibly consistent with the track/outcome from all major models. It's unlikely this changes that much.
  13. SnoSki14
    Best case scenario is 3-5" and models will struggle with due to the progressive pattern. They might not get it right until the storm is actually occurring.
  14. SnoSki14
    Yeah it's not an apples to apples comparison.
  15. SnoSki14
    I think people are underestimating this event. Yes it's very marginal but models have been trending stronger with this turning into a fast moving coastal. Could be a nice paste job just outside the city.
  16. SnoSki14
    Ensembles are steady run to run so I think it's just noise. However the risk of a tucked in solution is out there.
  17. SnoSki14
    Some of these tucked in lows have produced the most in the past if the right setup/airmass is in place. Hoping for a nice Euro run tonight to round things up.
  18. SnoSki14
    I noticed the CMC is more amped than the GFS because of the way it handles Mondays wave. I'd be willing to forego Monday if we get a bomb on Wednesday.
  19. SnoSki14
    The thing about blocking patterns is that they're very stable. I don't anticipate a lot of changes between now and then regarding track.
  20. SnoSki14
    That's a very strong shortwave interacting with strong confluent flow. Pretty ideal MECS setup honestly.
  21. SnoSki14
    I wonder if the NAO will be as persistent this time around as it has been in the spring months. The first step would be for the coming systems to bring the goods. Nina's with good Decembers typically fair well.
  22. SnoSki14
    Makes sense. Best case scenario would be us getting hit with both though it'll be tough with the lack of cold in wave 1.
  23. SnoSki14
    It helps when you have a strong blocking pattern in place (pacific or atlantic). Blocking patterns give every shortwave an opportunity to overperform and turn into at least a minor event, there's generally a cold air supply around, and you have more wiggle room even when the setup isn't ideal. Blocking patterns can also last several weeks to months.
  24. SnoSki14
    Very true. About a week ago everything looked hopeless with the Nina ridge returning. Can you imagine if the CMC ends up being correct, talk about a giant hammer to all the doom and gloom wall to wall torch winter forecasts.
  25. SnoSki14
    Classic I-95 MECS on the CMC. Really cold surface temps too.
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