SnoSki14

Strong cold high to the north could mean snows down to the coast. Really impressive potential.

Big SOI drop is a precursor to a major storm. Ensembles continuing to show a sharp PNA ridge and subsequent coastal with partial phasing (for now). Noted dips in the AO/NAO around March 5-7 timeframe too. I know it's early but I think we'll see a whopper Miller A snowstorm or blizzard for the northeast. Models/ensembles are already signaling this over a week out, which is usually a really good sign for an upcoming major storm.

These extremes will continue to increase. We could go from record warmth to cold and back in a couple days as the atmosphere gets more and more unstable. We could see more winters like 2015/16 with insane warmth followed by a record snowstorm. In addition I'm sure the warming east coast waters will increase the tropical threats with stronger storms and closer storm tracks.

Kudos to the Gfs for sniffing out the brief arctic shot. It could still back off but there's a lot of snow cover especially to our north that would help maintain the cold. Oddly enough the current forecast is much warmer than what models show. I see 22F Monday night and 41 Wednesday. No way it'll be that warm.

Basically Nina climo + AGW to come up with that forecast. Completely discounted blocking, SSW event, etc, Hadley cell interference.

There's a slight chance of something in the March 5-7 timeframe. Looks like a bit of a AO/NAO dip and PNA rise. EPS showing a pretty potent though transient eastern trough

Temps will always overperform on a sw wind.

Yeah I'll be surprised if we get nothing even with unfavorable tellies. Seems like the cold is still lurking up north too. Old GFS still persistent on that crazy early March arctic shot. How funny if our coldest temperatures of the winter came in March.

Lol sure. Where you live you may not get that till June easily.

Could be a fluke run though Euro has MJO running through 8-1 in March.

Time to start saying goodbye to the pack. Big melts rest of this week. I suspect we'll be reduced to piles by March 1st though your area should hold a bit holder.

That was a nice final event. Looks like a few inches with a nice snow globe look outside. I'm definitely ready for spring now as this event officially puts me over 40".

Strong convective elements to this line. We could be talking 2"+ per hour rates for a couple hours.

HRRR/Nam continue to suggest a thump of wet snow to the city. 2-3" west of city wouldn't surprise me.

Yeah it'll be up there though Feb 2003, 2010, and 2015 may slightly take the cake. The extreme cold of 2015 was more impressive and 03 had the bigger storm. 2010 had higher monthly totals and was a couple degrees colder on average.

A cold airmass is more vital than the sun angle and it's still only February. The biggest problem for tomorrow is the wind direction rather than daylight. However in marginal situations the daylight does matter.

I'm looking forward to the mild weather and am ready for things to melt. Based on tellies March should end up very warm but with all these crazy factors and seasonal changes in play you just never know. For all we know the month will torch with a random blizzard squeezed in somewhere.

It's all about timing here. Had this arrived overnight it could've put down advisory snows as far east as the city.

Yes 18z

Euro looked nice just west of the city for Monday. Gets me 2-3" if correct. Several models concur and I think they'll trend a bit colder once they recognize it'll be a quick thump of snow.

The high is in a nice spot. It all depends on the timing and amplification of the shortwave.

That's true but the antecedent airmass is good. The only downside is timing. Had this came overnight I think even the city would've gotten snows. Also paying close attention to the 26th. A cold front comes through Wednesday giving us a cold airmass ahead of the next shortwave. With the AO/NAO positive it's very unlikely the shortwave gets as far suppressed like models show right now. Beyond that it looks warm to start March, maybe even very warm with a large ridge building in the east though it could be transient and doesn't automatically mean it can't snow later on.

Btw early Monday supports a quick thump of wet snow especially west of the city. Euro had a few inches. Given cold airmass ahead of the system and faster than modeled timing usually seen with these systems it could extend into NYC.

Current tellies support a warm March so the chance of snows will be lower than usual. However the pattern should remain highly volatile so nothing is guaranteed.

Light snows continuing to fall. Will probably get an inch out of this.