TheClimateChanger

Dust storms were mostly from autumn through spring. I don't think there were many dust storms during the summer. A review of the Nebraska Monthly Weather Review for July 1936 reports only once instance of dust which lasted for a couple of hours ahead of an advancing cold front on the 19th. Looks like 1912 was an isolated stretch. 14 of the last 15 days of the month were below 80F in Boston that month, resulting in the 4th coldest stretch on record for that timeframe.

Can you speculate as to implications for winter in eastern North America?

On my mind for today:

Already seeing some of this activity in western Minnesota, with a number of these backyard Purple Air sensors registering AQIs in excess of 400. Comparing this to the modeled quantities for tomorrow, I wonder if we could see some AQI readings of 600-800 around Duluth, at least on some backyard sensors? Visibility has been as low as 1/2 mile in Grand Forks today. So that's what I mean when I say these visibility forecasts tend to be pretty conservative.

Tomorrow afternoon looks particularly rough for northeastern Minnesota, including Duluth and International Falls, with possible Code Purple conditions and visibilities potentially dropping below a mile in dense smoke. A bunch of active wildfires in western Ontario and eastern Manitoba (close source region) look to really get their act together tomorrow and throw off tons of smoke which may converge over the region.

Rarely see this visibility forecast register the smoke to this degree, but definitely going gung-ho on this in the western UP and northern Wisconsin, with widespread surface visibilities of 1-3 miles in dense smoke. Definitely something to keep an eye out for in Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit, and Minneapolis. I see a lot of sunny forecasts, but those forecasts could be spoiled by this developing pall of smoke.

Definitely looks like some hazardous air quality will be working into the Midwest over the weekend. We can see by late Saturday night, things are looking particularly dicey over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This spills southward across Wisconsin and Michigan during the day on Sunday.

I would say that area is generally less prone to high heat (100s+) than the coastal plain. It does happen, but not very frequently. Regardless, my point is just that the reading is way above any surrounding observations in the immediate vicinity. Clearly, it was a hot day either way, but that reading is obviously inflated somewhat from either instrument error or poor siting/exposure.

I understand that, but that doesn't explain why the Martinsburg temperatures are consistently 5F warmer than surrounding towns in that era, including on the date it "hit" a state record of 112F. On the same date, it was 103F in Hagerstown (25-minute drive) and 105F in Kearnesyville (10-ish minute drive) with no appreciable elevation difference.

What? It never gets above 90F on Mount Chesco!

You just know that user @FPizz is going to chime in with a poo emoji, and there it is! I post a very reasonable critique of a clearly bogus reading, and that's the response. I see him typing something else up, wonder what it could be? It's like an IQ test. Anyone with any knowledge of meteorology/weather knows such variance is implausible/impossible, so you have to either willfully pretend its plausible despite the physical impossibility or, well you know...

112F in Martinsburg, yeah, I don't believe that. It was 103F in Hagerstown and 105F in Kearneysville on the same date, right next door. Hot day, but it's not 7-9F hotter in Martinsburg than neighboring towns. More bogus nonsense, so we can hear how it was so much hotter in the past and climate change is a hoax.

Some will say I'm making a big deal out of nothing, but if you look at all the surrounding sites, you'll see only 2010 was consistently warmer in recent years, with years like 1994 & 2024 comparable to this June, which jives with the official statewide rankings. If you looked at the DCA records, you'd think a whole slew of years in the 2010s were warmer - 2008, 2014, 2015, 2017... etc.? I mean 2014 - that was a relatively chilly summer? Not even close to 2025 anywhere else on the planet. What a joke.

Weird. 5th warmest June on record in West Virginia, Virginia, and Delaware. 4th warmest in Maryland. But only tied for 18th warmest at DC. Yeah, ok... but, I bet we'll still have people bellyaching (hallucinating?) about supposed urban heat islands and tarmac heat islands.

Morning thoughts:

Well, I'd personally say a negative number for (2) and suggest the UHI effect has had cooling trend on the winter averages, considering the US CRN stations [all sited in pristine rural locations] show more, not less, warming since 2005 than the full network.

Ten coldest summers at Detroit (by average hourly real feel) (1934-present) 1992 66.8 1985 68.0 1972 68.4 1965 68.4 1964 68.5 1979 68.6 1982 68.7 1962 68.8 1967 69.0 2009 69.4 Ten hottest summers at Detroit (by average hourly real feel) (1934-present) 1995 75.6 2005 75.4 1955 75.3 2012 75.2 2016 75.2 2010 75.0 2018 75.0 1988 75.0 2011 75.0 1949 74.7

Ten coldest summers at Detroit (by average daily mean temperature) (1934-present) 1992 66.9 1985 67.7 1972 68.1 1982 68.1 1979 68.3 1967 68.9 1958 69.1 2004 69.1 1945 69.2 2009 69.3 Ten warmest summers at Detroit (by average daily mean temperature) (1934-present) 2016 74.9 2005 74.8 2012 74.7 1995 74.5 1955 74.4 2010 74.4 2011 74.4 2018 74.4 1988 74.2 2021 74.2

Ten coldest summers at Detroit (by average hourly observation) (1934-present) 1992 66.7 1985 68.0 1972 68.0 1964 68.2 1979 68.3 1965 68.3 1982 68.4 1962 68.6 1967 68.8 2004 69.0 Ten hottest summers at Detroit (by average hourly temperature) (1934-present) 2012 74.8 2005 74.6 2016 74.6 1955 74.5 1988 74.4 2018 74.3 2010 74.2 1995 74.2 2020 74.1 2011 74.1

Ten least humid summers at Detroit (1934-present) 1936 55.7 1985 56.6 1992 56.7 1965 56.7 1950 57.0 1946 57.1 1934 57.1 1958 57.4 1971 57.6 1964 57.8 Ten most humid summers at Detroit (1934-present) 1995 64.4 2010 63.2 2021 63.2 1998 63.0 1949 62.8 2002 62.7 1987 62.6 1973 62.5 1993 62.5 2005 62.5

I don't know how this myth keeps coming up. Recent summers have been hotter and more humid at Detroit. This is objective data, not opinion. Note data discontinuity in 1959 is responsible for much of the cooling in the 1960s and 1970s. Data for 1934-1958 from City Airport, and from Metropolitan Wayne International Airport since 1959. Data source for all hourly readings is Iowa Environmental Mesonet, and for the mean average temperatures is xMacis.

Not liking all of this heavy rainfall language just about every day. They must be getting nervous from all the recent 1000-year floods. Today Considerable cloudiness. Areas of fog this morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall this afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. Tonight Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the evening. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph, becoming south after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent. Thursday Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the evening. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. West winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. Chance of rain 50 percent. Friday Partly sunny. Areas of fog in the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. Light and variable winds, becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent. Friday Night Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then mainly clear after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the evening. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Saturday Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Heat index values in the mid 90s in the afternoon. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 40 percent. Sunday Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent. Monday Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Monday Night Scattered showers in the evening. Mainly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Tuesday Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Not even close. Low was 66F.

I always see people dismiss this analysis and go back to 1895, but that makes little sense. From 1895 to 1970, CO2 went from 294 to 324 ppm, a relatively small 30 ppm increase over 75 years. It's now more than 100 ppm higher than it was 55 years ago. So that's a big change, and there's less cooling sulfur aerosols from industry today. There's certainly nothing to suggest the trendline is going to get less steep with time. In fact, 4 of the past 6 Januarys are above the trend I display above, whereas 6 of the first 7 and 8 of the first 10 are below. This suggests a possible acceleration in the trendline.

I think such warming is plausible, especially in the winter. Last 50 years trend is +12.3F/century statewide for January - more in certain areas, especially in the north. Prior to this year's chilly January, it had been nearing 14F/century. If we reel off a couple of very mild Januarys, it could reach 15F/century soon.