George001

I hope you are right, If it goes over the cape that puts interior se ma in the game for big snows as well. Even on the runs with a well inland track, for areas NW of the low even just like 5-10 miles are getting hammered with big snows. Didn’t one of the storms (I forget which one) in January 2011 have a low track over that area, and the rain snow line was confined to just NW of the canal?

I never met him in person but I was lurking here for years, and really enjoyed his posts. Man, I ****ing miss him.

You are correct. Water pistols with loaded up with Kevin’s beer!

Holy shit what a melt! I have always shit on the gfs even when it shows what I like. I’m just gonna be straight up with you, I am not gonna change my ways. If I see the potential for blizzard conditions in my area I’m going to express excitement about the potential, you are always welcome to ignore my posts if you don’t like it. If what you are saying is true, seems to me like you went from a happy young kid full of life to a bitter and grumpy old man. I am in my early 20s, but when I get older if I end up grumpy and bitter like that I hope someone puts me outta my goddamn misery. I hope to retain some of my youthful passion towards the things I enjoy as I grow older. Whether it is a blizzard or rain or whiff or whatever, even if it doesn’t pan out tracking it is part of the fun at least for me. There’s nothing wrong with liking to see the good in things, even if reality doesn’t always pan out that way. 5 days out, all options are on the table, and yes there is an elevated risk of a monster blizzard somewhere in New England due to the size of the storm so yeah I’m excited about the potential. Maybe it pans out, maybe it doesn’t. For now, I am on board and I’m going to stick to my guns.

Go ahead and keep looking at the GFS, it’s full of shit. There can and will be a monster blizzard somewhere in New England with a low that powerful. Liking big blizzards doesn’t make me a goddamn infant, idk what to tell you. Also remember last December? The same storm that was modeled to cut into Wisconsin ended up at roughly this lead time ended up giving Boston a foot?

I’m thinking based on a blend of the big 3, we see a low track over Long Island and then go inland a bit into se mass, like a March 2017 type track. In my area, that means heavy snow to mix to rain. It’s a bit disappointing that it’s not all snow, but it is what it is. This happens sometimes in la ninas, the risk is storms running too far inland leading to rainier solutions, but hey I’ll take that over not having a low at all or watching DC get 2 feet while we get nothing. I’m probably gonna get a sloppy foot, im a little bummed about it because of what could have been, but that’s better than nothing. The NNE guys though I think they will be very happy with this outcome, it would be a monster blizzard up there.

Beer?

It doesn’t look great right now but we don’t know that yet, it may not rain on Monday in eastern mass.

We need a 100 mile shift se, is that really impossible? The storm is still 5 days out.

Ok that euro run is disgusting, we need massive large scale changes to the setup. Models are struggling with the pattern due to the massive ocean storm.

Maybe it can turn into a Miller B if it keeps slowing down?

Maybe even if the low is se there is a way to get more precip back this way, if the trough goes negatively tilted and the low becomes massive, like March 2013. Wasn’t that low like 500 miles se of the benchmark?

I hope the entire setup shifts away from this Miller A bullshit. We need a Miller B, I hate seeing that on the Canadian guidance. Blend of the Euro Canadian and Navy still looks good though.

the GFS sucks, just 2 and a half days ago it barely even had a low, now it has a blizzard for Montreal.

Yeah if the navy is more NW than other models that can’t be ignored, it isn’t a useless model. I’d argue it’s alot more useful than the gfs because it has a clear and consistent bias that can be controlled for by the forecaster, where as the gfs is erratic. That’s why when I saw the Navy hugging the coast I started to get really nervous.

Ok if we look at the guidance all we need is a 50 mile shift se on the euro ensemble mean, that’s really not that much.

That’s a good sign considering how far west the Canadian and European guidance were and although it’s a very underrated model it does have a SE bias. Great start to the 12z guidance!

It sucks, I’m losing hope for an all snow event here. Still worth tracking though, even if it turns to rain eventually it’s possible we get a good amount of snow first like March 2017.

For the nor’easter last December the models had the low cutting to Wisconsin at one point with a massive rainstorm in the east. I ended up with around 15 inches in that one with areas NW getting even more (Binghamton NY got 40+ I believe).

This Friday storm might be closer for us east guys than the Monday one. Definitely something to watch.

The trends overnight were not good, and it is very possible this low does run inland. But even if it does, we could still see a few inches of snow before a changeover to rain in eastern areas. I’m not going to give up yet though, it’s not an ideal track but at least we have a low.

We need the high pressure to stay rather than move east, I hope that changes.

Didn’t see the precip maps but if it goes from NYC to right over eastern mass that’s a step in the right direction. Still would be rain for my area, but even like 20 miles NW of my area would probably stay snow the whole storm and get a blizzard, rather than being confined to far inland. So far mixed signals, Canadian trended in the wrong direction Euro in the right direction. Models are still struggling with the pattern, hopefully the low doesn’t go inland at all.

The low is a bit se of Nantucket that would be snow all the way to the cape with the airmass in place imo.

Theres so much cold air in place and a massive high to the north, not buying that it just moves outta there like that. GFS sucks, I’m all in with the NAVY.