SnowenOutThere

Ukmet will not be as far north as its 0z run. Still ejects the SW but doesn't phase it as far back so should be better for all of us.

GEFS looks like it should be improved to some extent

Funniest part is it almost pulls it off but remains too positively tilted to capture the low. Ironically there is a larger storm out there.

Hour 150 with light snow exiting the region

Whoever is riding the mixing line on the CMC is in for the time of their lives. Its actually not too dissimilar than that GFS sounding from its 60 inch snowstorm in PA

We broke Tropical Tidbits output scaling

Almost looks like its going for a triple phase in the plains. Or it could just crush it... NVM

@stormtracker I believe your services are needed

Scratch that as others have pointed out it looks to phasing with the NS instead of being killed by it. This is exactly how the new CMC at 0z got us a complete ice storm as it jacked the whole track way north. Though the 12z CMC seems to be a bit further south so it may crush us

CMC so far with a bit less suppressed of a south west though I doubt it fully can climb to us.

I was focused on the out west interactions but honestly I liked what the GFS did where we live. It showed another path to a snowstorm even if we fail our golden route. I like this second failsafe situation where we use the NS to create an eastern low pressure with all of the moisture to our south. Hopefully it won't need to come to this but I like that its there.

Lmao you're doing great I'm just here ranting about maps. Speaking of which we flirt for so long with a phase before it starts to retrograde back west. Though... I think it might setup for a different storm later with this look.

We are SO CLOSE. Regardless of what happens this run has been a major improvement over 6z

Next 20 hours determines if the GFS can pull through. The SW is so close to ejecting east and we need the bit of energy north of it to help it instead of cut it off

We don't have the same piece of NS coming down to help lift it out of the SW that the Euro has. I doubt we get a similar evolution to our big hits though an improvement from its own baseline is possible.

The resident UVA poster approves of this change

Physics based GFS has the SW a bit more east and less confluence in front. Generally seems to moving in the right direction but need to see what happens in the next 20 hours.

Wanted to ask you or any other met @Eskimo Joe @high risk @WxUSAF about what happened out near Charlottesville and Shenandoah yesterday. Seemed like on radar we got a localized bit of terrain enhancement with some sort of upper level boost. Was wondering if that is a common thing out here or was just some freak incident due to extremely favorable wind interactions with the mountains. I plan to also pester my microclimate professor about this on Tuesday. Either way was an extremely interesting evolution where I got a rather significant surprise .5ish inch of snow. Heres a radar screenshot from when it was happening

So far no major changes through hour 60. Going to need to watch the NS interaction coming up. Edit: Take this back as the Southern vort is slightly more eastward and slightly more north which cant hurt us.

Most important run of the GFS so far for 2026 running. Big difference I'm looking for is around the hour 100 mark with the handling of shortwave over the Pac NW that either cuts off our southern stream energy or kicks/phases it eastward. The 6z difference in Euro vs GFS shows it nicely. GFS on top Euro on bottom.

Also you know its a real threat when we got a bunch of mets posting in the thread!

Quick hit. Not great but a big improvement both H5 and surface.

Real question is who starts the thread

Just wait for the snow to ice event to end all ice events. To be completely honest that is the real worst case scenario from impacts perspective and not an unlikely one. Would be a significant snow storm followed by a bit of sleet than freezing rain which would actually accrete to everything with temperatures in the teens before crashing to near 0 with widespread blackouts from the storm. IMO this is what we gotta avoid from a “holy shit people will die” perspective.

My thinking is similar to yours. Personally I think we’re in a pretty good spot as of now considering that the AI GFS/Ukmet are almost too far north. Main thing I want to see out of today is the Euro and Euro ai to hold and have the CMC and GFS come closer to that solution. I think the way we get that is have the pv to our northeast be a bit less intense or (better yet though less likely) have a stronger low. That said, I wouldn’t want models to all suddenly jump way north today but just show increasing confidence a total miss to the south is unlikely.