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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    While we're between run I looked at the NAM and FWIW at the end of its run looks to have more confluence further southwest than the 6z GFS while also having a slightly stronger southwest. I assume this would turn out well for us but I'm also by far not the best person here to analyze it.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    I volunteer to start the second thread to bring the storm back if this happens
  3. SnowenOutThere
    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1874606351701475799?t=Si4ZRrKNNJ68cDEWkY2Row&s=19 Post over at twitter seemed informative in the two ways this might go a little too far north for our liking @OSUmetstud mentioned he believed that the second way outlined in the post seems more likely than the first FWIW and in the second outcome it would most likely just help the coastal get going so we wouldn't necessarily lose out on snow from it.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Oh wow, I was expecting maybe a tenth of an inch or something. Even if just half (or frankly a quarter) of that was legit freezing rain that could accrete it definitely could help in giving me an extra long winter break.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    Would be nice if @NorthArlington101 (or any other person who paid for model runs) could post the freezing rain/sleet accumulation maps
  6. SnowenOutThere
    Way out to the 15th but the GFS is actually pretty close to a hit, so even if both Monday and next weekend fails we still have another shot.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    Hey, did you know Prince died?
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Its so close to a phase that could've brought it up the coast too but the NS kicks it instead.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    If it was just a little bit further north it actually would be a pretty good run, has a better snow max but is just a bit too far south.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    I support this being a thread but making one as the GFS is running wasn't the best timing.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    Has it really? Looks like it may have been partying a little hard over the past couple days.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Its also significantly faster than 6z with the storm in general
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Precip shield seems to be weakening on approach...
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Southwest and low looks a little more powerful and the confluence is slightly further north (Connecticut vs New York City on 6z) at hour 105
  15. SnowenOutThere
    You could even say the biggest 12z runs of the year
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Well at the very least the front end thump part…
  17. SnowenOutThere
    WAA doesn’t get shredded to hell and manages to hold together to us
  18. SnowenOutThere
    At the very least going to be a solid hit on the level (or above) the 12z cmc
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Between the gfs and the icon or the gfs and its previous run?
  20. SnowenOutThere
    The icon seemed to tick a bit better for our region plus the gfs still looks decent.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Hey I care about this threat but I just don't have weatherbell.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    Hey remember you’re still the person who willed us into this event so whatever happens falls on you
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Confluence is over Rhode Island vs New Jersey while the Euro has it north east of Boston, still a good shift regardless.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    Could you imagine the state of this place if this is the reality? I fear some of our posters may not make it past next week at this rate.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    That said the GEFS are now up to a solid .4 areawide mean which isn't entirely terrible, and there are no real outliers giving 4+ inches to throw off the mean
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