SnowenOutThere

I think this latest GFS will be significantly better for us from how the H5 is looking out over the plains. Still probably a bit too broad though.

I understand how a neg pna typically hurts us but I'm wondering how else we get a wave to track like the 18z shows. I understand that this is a traditionally -pna with a low in the southwest. However, like you said it is progressive so this low moves eastward and throws moisture up in front of it (alongside the WAA and ridging as a result of it impacting the flow). So to my (flawed) understanding wouldn't having higher heights in the pna region basically mean our storm doesn't exist/is far weaker? Or alternatively the pna is more positive which results in the storm rolling off the ridge at a higher latitude before dipping eastward in a trough, which seems like it would cause even worse thermal issues. I guess I'm just struggling to see how else we get a SWFL event without a negative or neutral PNA.

Pardon my ignorance but to get such an overrunning event don't we need a negative (or neutral) PNA since the wave is from the southern stream and tracks eastward across the country? Wouldn't a positive PNA block it's path or force it to be significantly weaker/disjointed as part of it goes over the ridge and part goes under?

I dunno man you should consult the big ones are locked in early chart.

What about this sounding? I mean could you even imagine the ground truth of a saturated DGZ that large with lift throughout it?

4 inches of sleet followed by a half foot of snow with some freezing rain mixed in would probably get me out of classes for more than a bit. Would also get gusts into the 30s to sandblast anyone (all of us) stupid enough to be outside.

I think this is the single most ridiculous snow map I have seen for pretty much anywhere nearby. Would need to make a drive up to see 90 inches of snow.

No matter what keep this thread unpinned we saw what happened when we pinned it the first time

#snowtown

Not to agree with Ji but being honest it’s too far to our east and a bit north. If anything it’s similar how we get something like this Thursday where it’s a NS wave we pray it develops south.

Think I'll refrain from looking into this one for a couple days and might take a break from the past 4+ days of tracking.

My only real complaining post I can make on this is that I don't think any of these shots are particularly likely at this time so it seems to be a lot of tracking with a questionable reward. The 18/19th is still very possible but we need to start seeing signs of life soon; beyond that is too far to really get invested in so they are low probability until proven otherwise.

I think we have to test a classic nino to see if this is the case. I am of the PSU school of thought where I think we are trending towards bad but our past decade is still abnormally horrific. That said, if we get a real nino and see storm after storm of mid 30s with a limited snow sector to the northwest it’s probably wraps.

Considering Florida is completely gone from the map maybe this is a post climate change hell world. That said, fuck generative ai, we need our brains more than ever.

The issue of the 12z GFS for the cape storm is not the southern vort - which pulls its weight and tries to develop - but instead the northern vort lobe which ruins any chance of it amplifying.

Gotta keep it that way

Hmmm maybe we should delete this thread and gaslight anyone who wasn’t awake into believing it never existed

Don’t know what that is but it’s NOT a clipper by any respectable clippers definition.

It was a delicate balance tbf, the only reason we got such a great dig is because the best vorticity was centered on the southern part of the lobe so it pinched south. Without that there's nothing that really helps it do that.

I was gonna make an extrap HRRR joke but highk don't think it would be good so nvm! Biggest GFS run for 1/11/2026 past 10:25pm

See id be against it if it was the only game in town but when we got three windows we gotta be siloing out the dying ones

It gets a name upgrade if it locks in tonight

Created. Made it clear I’m not taking ownership like December storms

Decided id lend my thread starting luck to this event. Let’s see how the cards fall. That said wanna make it clear I’m not taking responsibility over this storm like the December ones so don’t yell at me!

Wonder if your time period would've worked out on the 18z Euro. It has a completely different (and better) look than 12z