Spanks45

We are actually in winter now and it has been pushing 4 days since we have been below freezing here....the mosquitoes are going to be out and about soon.

The GEFS at 18z kinda showed this at the end of the run too....maybe the thaw will end up being 2 weeks instead of 4?

Bring it, lets pad the stats before the massive month long January thaw begins....

Kind of a run of the GFS at 18z, I'm sure the GEFS look horrible past day 10....but the OP looked nice!

Thanks, same to you.I personally would love to see the long range fail completely and we are tracking snow events starting with this weekend staright through March

I was adding to Tip's observations regarding the Euro in the longer range, not trying to be a Debbie...That is what the panic room is for, lol

Then day 8 has 983 mb low sitting over upstate NY....

After that period, we will start the wet/warm, cold/dry pattern for 10-15 days....that is when it will get really bad

Pattern change thread?

The earth is flat and vaccines are bad....This is still a debate despite the year 2019/2020, we should be well past those debates unless new science based facts are brought forward. I think the main issue begins when one comes off as correct despite absolutely no scientific evidence available to one's argument. Sadly the days of having a good scientific debate based on facts has come to end....

I just wish everything now a days wasn't so political, especially regarding science....It would be nice if the world could come together and share data, ideas, hypotheses, etc with getting so darn upset and taking everything personal. We probably could have saved the planet by now if we did. As a scientist, it drives me nuts that we can't just use the simple 5 step scientific method without stomping out of the room because one's private donors tell them what they should believe not what the data actually shows...sorry for the banter

The carousel does me in at this point....I guess I should be happy with my dusting of sleet last night, might be the last trace of anything until at least February, hopefully....

we had about 2 minutes of a mix here as well, covered the deck, looked a bit large for sleet....at least 10 lightning flashes with house rattling thunder, impressive....temp is down to 35 right now

Incoming....

Might be time for us SWesterners to head to the panic room for a while....Ugly

34.7°/33.1°....close but nothing more than a 33 and rain it seems, onto day 8-10, good luck to those to the north

EPS starting to show the SE Ridge in the 11-15 day....Where is the -NAO when you need it?

SE Ridge incoming after a 3 days window of "something"....

The Nam has me between 32-35 through most of the event....last storm that it showed us in that range we ended up being 30 with a ton of freezing rain, I am sure it will end up being 33 and rain, but who knows....

Nice down this way today, temps near 50 felt great...finally melted the ice left over on the cold side of the house. On another note, spent the beginning of the holidays back in my hometown of Lancaster PA and noticed a Los Angeles like haze for the 3 days I was there. Definitely not winter like down that way...

I know, I figured since everyone else has been so negative recently that I would just add some gasoline to the fire....lol

Its good to see Canada cold, they need it. But we know what that means for our weather down here...It should make everyone a bit nervous seeing the last temperature that cold was in January of 2012, what was the winter like in this neck of the woods in 2011/2012?

I always look towards Hawaii.....There is a bit of a glimmer around there in the 11-15 day range, but....this might be the season of 2-3 weeks good, 2-3 weeks bad pattern. So lets hope for some good after say January 5-10 period.

Cold rain...wish it it were a warm rain though.

We need more of this type of system.....