Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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Thanks, it was more in jest with regards to the past few weeks.....
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besides that one cutter, which could also flatten out overtime...That was a wintry Euro run, with the ridging beginning to build at day 10 into Alaska....
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SWFE like, hopefully that third piece tucks the cold air in because it seems a 4th piece is following....
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high pressure flattens everything out too much, then moves out just in time for the 3rd wave to blast through the great lakes....
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We did have 2 weeks in December and a cold November(just no snow)...We'll see, the way the winter has gone, I fully expect next week to turn into 4 hours of frozen precip with days and days of 33 degree misery mist/rain. I just hope climo takes over for a while
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At least the end of the GEFS looks better....Ridging extending into the Arctic region? Flattening of the SE Ridge? What could go wrong? Salvage 2 weeks in February with that look possibly...
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Reminds me of a late March morning, foggy, temp hanging around freezing with a coating of snow/ice...Is it spring yet?
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I moved up here December of 2014....2014/15 - 59" 2015/16 - 38" 2016/17 - 58.6" 2017/18 - 72" 2018/19 - 35" 2019/20 - 14.3" so far I somehow forgot about the 2016/17 season, so I guess it hasn't been that terrible. Especially moving up from central Delaware (lived there for 8+ years) where I averaged 15 inches per season..
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I am actually ahead of last year by 2 inches which is my lowest seasonal snowfall at 35 inches. I had 38ish inches in 2015/16 thanks to the blizzard. Three out of the last four years have not been very good....
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My expectations are pretty low. I hate seeing all of that cold air up north and having that sinking feeling that we end up with cold rains during peak snow climo. Lets end this and just start spring already. Then again, I would be ok with a 2 week run to make up those deficits.
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But we know that somehow the 6z GFS will verify with almost 100% accuracy on where the boundary sets up It has become comical now, sitting at just over 14 inches for the season here, 30ish inches away from average, that is a lot of SWFEs needed to make up that ground in the next 2 months....
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ok, maybe its the internal/mental shift to spring despite the calendar date, its just extra early this year...Which means, a -NAO sets up March 25th through June 15th this year,
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to be honest I think it has started already....I was just outside, 28 degrees and there is mud, not frozen ground anywhere the sun is hitting, I would assume cars are warming as we speak. My Greenhouse is pushing 60 at 1130 am in January, garlic is 4 inches high, I even have random weeds sprouting. Even they think it is spring
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Honestly, the last SWFE that we had, 3-4 inches of snow that stuck around for 5 or so days, kids had some fun playing in it. I think we had lows in the single digits twice in that stretch. It definitely looked and felt like winter for that stretch, but it wasn't 1-2 feet of fun. But it also wasn't what the Mid Atlantic has been dealing with the past few winters, so maybe the glass half full look?
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The cold is there, it looks like the storminess will be there. Knowing that blocking tends to show up in the mid range, hopefully something will popup when we least expect it. Completely different story if Canada is torching...Last year I think I had a total of 9 inches of snow from January/February combined then ended up with almost 20 inches in March, so maybe March delivers again to salvage things....
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Need some Greenland nlocking to push back the SE ridge...and we have non for the foreseeable future
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GFS with quite the gradient pattern setting up in the longer range....Going to be pretty scary in here if that boundary parks itself in NNE for a while, the rats will be flying left and right.
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The GFS showed this too, just further south and less organized....nice to see the NS adding some fuel to the atmosphere
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It was interesting to see the CMC kick that southern wave out to sea further, followed by the northern stream developing a larger precip shield down in the Mid Atlantic....in the end it doesn't make a difference this run, but there is still time for that "system" to develop...
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if 2 out of 4 of the bigger models were showing a hit and the GFS was lagging at this time, I could see why it would be worth waiting for the GFS to come on board. At this point we have a graze at best out of any of them and feel like that is the only upside at this point, a grazing with a dusting to maybe an inch. It sort of reminds me of the system a few weeks ago that ended up giving CT a dusting to an inch when it seemed like it was going to swing and miss totally....guess we shall see, still 72+ hrs out.
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great, the 8th spot up with 2 on and 2 out.....
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If it is going to rain next week, I hope it "torches". Pretty sure the past 2 Februarys have had 70s, so why not. But that boundary has been shifting south, so probably end up cloudy with drizzle and 30s....
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but we have the 6z Nam trending north...
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is there a chance that southern stream energy scoots out and that northern stream ends up digging further south and becoming the main event?
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Sadly back to hoping for a day 10 threat to work out, we can't seem to get anything from day 4-7 work in our favor....Hoping this weekend can break the streak.
