Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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Honestly, the last SWFE that we had, 3-4 inches of snow that stuck around for 5 or so days, kids had some fun playing in it. I think we had lows in the single digits twice in that stretch. It definitely looked and felt like winter for that stretch, but it wasn't 1-2 feet of fun. But it also wasn't what the Mid Atlantic has been dealing with the past few winters, so maybe the glass half full look?
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The cold is there, it looks like the storminess will be there. Knowing that blocking tends to show up in the mid range, hopefully something will popup when we least expect it. Completely different story if Canada is torching...Last year I think I had a total of 9 inches of snow from January/February combined then ended up with almost 20 inches in March, so maybe March delivers again to salvage things....
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Need some Greenland nlocking to push back the SE ridge...and we have non for the foreseeable future
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GFS with quite the gradient pattern setting up in the longer range....Going to be pretty scary in here if that boundary parks itself in NNE for a while, the rats will be flying left and right.
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The GFS showed this too, just further south and less organized....nice to see the NS adding some fuel to the atmosphere
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It was interesting to see the CMC kick that southern wave out to sea further, followed by the northern stream developing a larger precip shield down in the Mid Atlantic....in the end it doesn't make a difference this run, but there is still time for that "system" to develop...
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if 2 out of 4 of the bigger models were showing a hit and the GFS was lagging at this time, I could see why it would be worth waiting for the GFS to come on board. At this point we have a graze at best out of any of them and feel like that is the only upside at this point, a grazing with a dusting to maybe an inch. It sort of reminds me of the system a few weeks ago that ended up giving CT a dusting to an inch when it seemed like it was going to swing and miss totally....guess we shall see, still 72+ hrs out.
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great, the 8th spot up with 2 on and 2 out.....
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If it is going to rain next week, I hope it "torches". Pretty sure the past 2 Februarys have had 70s, so why not. But that boundary has been shifting south, so probably end up cloudy with drizzle and 30s....
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but we have the 6z Nam trending north...
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is there a chance that southern stream energy scoots out and that northern stream ends up digging further south and becoming the main event?
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Sadly back to hoping for a day 10 threat to work out, we can't seem to get anything from day 4-7 work in our favor....Hoping this weekend can break the streak.
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So the way things are going, we are setting up a 1-2 weeks worth of winter before we go back to what we had from December 17ish until now? Yikes...
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It left a piece of energy that ended up in the Baja region, looks like the Euro now.....
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GFS further SE at 12z....6z trend continues at 12z it seems
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I actually think the 6z Icon run is a pretty realistic outcome for this storm (if there is a slight phase that occurs). A quick hitting 6-10 inch storm for many in CNE/SNE. And I would be perfectly fine with that most winters, especially this one....
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Saturday we will all be watching satellite loops, having early phase hallucinations, thinking the ots forecast is wrong....only to have the models in the end being correct even though it was soooo close...
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I will take anyone of those 968/970 lows just south of eastern Long Island please....
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Just an observation over the years of watching the Euro, more often than not it doesn't just jump in the last minute with a storm like this....baby steps yes, but nothing like what the GFS does. Doesn't mean the Euro wont bounce NW hundreds of miles inside of day 3....Just saying it would be nice to have the Euro show something close by within day 5
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Definitely don't want to bullseye 5-6 days out, keep everything nearby. Let the ensembles show some hits and hopefully we are good. It would be nice to see the Euro Op show something closer soon rather than later though....
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Oh of course, playing the odds, probably well below 1%....This is what creates the so called addiction to weather modeling, the Euro ensembles are complete and everyone is silently needing the 18z stuff to start asap, winter time specifically.
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Lol at the GFS past 300 hr, maybe winter does come back with a vengeance? Is it too much to ask for the CMC to verify first, then follow it with the GFS storm after 300?
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We might finally be onto something...every model has had something now for a few days, hit or miss the players are still there. The ensembles are coming around and we are in the 6-8 day range. What do you say, 10-20% of some sort of impact along the east coast at this point?
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Reading back on previous coastal storms over the past 6+ years tells you why you do not want to bullseye 5+ days out...lets keep the storm around and worry about west and east within the 36-72 hour range...
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Consider it snakebitititus, but the concern is it starts backing off and looking more like the GEFS longer range...reminds me of just a few weeks ago. Hopefully no setbacks as we are pushing into February now...the sun this morning felt warm, the clock is starting to tick now...
