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MN Transplant

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. Let’s be clear about the HRRR. There have only been 3 runs that take it to 6z Wednesday and 2 through 12z. The 06z run at 48 hours had 0.11” precip through 48 at DC. The current run has 0.40” through the same period.
  2. Not that it matters, but the QPF around DC is 0.45”, which is about the RGEM/ICON/Ukie.
  3. It is locked in. Can barely tell any difference in the precip fields from 00 to 06 to 12z.
  4. The HRRR is great - when it confirms what every other model is saying.
  5. Tight precip gradient around DC. Best from Fredericksburg east.
  6. It remains a 5-7” storm with the potential for a couple of inches upside in a small, tbd area. Nothing overnight changed that.
  7. Lop 1/3 off the NAM precip, apply a 10:1 and you put it right in the 5-7” range that the other models have been projecting. That’s our target for DC.
  8. Other than Not Like Us, Kendrick has been more niche. Talented as hell, but not as radio-friendly. It was surprising when he was tapped for the halftime show.
  9. Dominating lines. Impressive.
  10. To provide a low side on the estimates, here is the max Total Snow Depth on the various models for DC. NAM 12k: 7.8" NAM 3k (truncated at 06z Wed): 3.5" with more to come RGEM: 4.4" GFS: 3.6"
  11. I don’t envy whoever has to forecast for Richmond on this one.
  12. Big difference between the NAM and RGEM is that the NAM has a break in precip on Wednesday while the RGEM's transition is blurrier. Unfortunately on the RGEM that means rain by Wednesday evening.
  13. Weirdly splotchy precip distribution, but a general 3-6".
  14. The HRRR was dead on for yesterday. I got 0.05" precip. Blind squirrel and all.
  15. The NAM Nest puts the axis further south, between Fredericksburg and Richmond. Huge practical difference for DC for the afternoon into early evening hours.
  16. A couple from yesterday's obscene run. 12 hour snowfall Full run 10:1
  17. 0.7” QPF into DC. Drawn out, but it works in this case.
  18. 18z HRRR is bone dry, but it is off on its own. And, HRRR.
  19. I’m impressed that the precip totals are on the high side of guidance, at least from DC south. Still only 32.0. Edit - My skycam
  20. 0.74” fell with temps below freezing and there is basically no impact except pretty trees.
  21. Paved surfaces are fine but when we get a little more light the trees are going to look spectacular. This could have been a huge mess at 28 rather than 31 degrees.
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