Let’s be clear about the HRRR. There have only been 3 runs that take it to 6z Wednesday and 2 through 12z. The 06z run at 48 hours had 0.11” precip through 48 at DC. The current run has 0.40” through the same period.
Other than Not Like Us, Kendrick has been more niche. Talented as hell, but not as radio-friendly. It was surprising when he was tapped for the halftime show.
To provide a low side on the estimates, here is the max Total Snow Depth on the various models for DC.
NAM 12k: 7.8"
NAM 3k (truncated at 06z Wed): 3.5" with more to come
RGEM: 4.4"
GFS: 3.6"
Big difference between the NAM and RGEM is that the NAM has a break in precip on Wednesday while the RGEM's transition is blurrier. Unfortunately on the RGEM that means rain by Wednesday evening.
The NAM Nest puts the axis further south, between Fredericksburg and Richmond. Huge practical difference for DC for the afternoon into early evening hours.
Paved surfaces are fine but when we get a little more light the trees are going to look spectacular. This could have been a huge mess at 28 rather than 31 degrees.