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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Steady as she goes
  2. MN Transplant
    Let’s be clear about the HRRR. There have only been 3 runs that take it to 6z Wednesday and 2 through 12z. The 06z run at 48 hours had 0.11” precip through 48 at DC. The current run has 0.40” through the same period.
  3. MN Transplant
    Not that it matters, but the QPF around DC is 0.45”, which is about the RGEM/ICON/Ukie.
  4. MN Transplant
    It is locked in. Can barely tell any difference in the precip fields from 00 to 06 to 12z.
  5. MN Transplant
    The HRRR is great - when it confirms what every other model is saying.
  6. MN Transplant
    Tight precip gradient around DC. Best from Fredericksburg east.
  7. MN Transplant
    It remains a 5-7” storm with the potential for a couple of inches upside in a small, tbd area. Nothing overnight changed that.
  8. MN Transplant
    Lop 1/3 off the NAM precip, apply a 10:1 and you put it right in the 5-7” range that the other models have been projecting. That’s our target for DC.
  9. MN Transplant
    3k is a nice 6-9”
  10. MN Transplant
    Other than Not Like Us, Kendrick has been more niche. Talented as hell, but not as radio-friendly. It was surprising when he was tapped for the halftime show.
  11. MN Transplant
    Dominating lines. Impressive.
  12. MN Transplant
    To provide a low side on the estimates, here is the max Total Snow Depth on the various models for DC. NAM 12k: 7.8" NAM 3k (truncated at 06z Wed): 3.5" with more to come RGEM: 4.4" GFS: 3.6"
  13. MN Transplant
    Come to papa
  14. MN Transplant
    I don’t envy whoever has to forecast for Richmond on this one.
  15. MN Transplant
    Big difference between the NAM and RGEM is that the NAM has a break in precip on Wednesday while the RGEM's transition is blurrier. Unfortunately on the RGEM that means rain by Wednesday evening.
  16. MN Transplant
    Weirdly splotchy precip distribution, but a general 3-6".
  17. MN Transplant
    The HRRR was dead on for yesterday. I got 0.05" precip. Blind squirrel and all.
  18. MN Transplant
    The NAM Nest puts the axis further south, between Fredericksburg and Richmond. Huge practical difference for DC for the afternoon into early evening hours.
  19. MN Transplant
    A couple from yesterday's obscene run. 12 hour snowfall Full run 10:1
  20. MN Transplant
    0.7” QPF into DC. Drawn out, but it works in this case.
  21. MN Transplant
    Flurries. 33.6
  22. MN Transplant
    18z HRRR is bone dry, but it is off on its own. And, HRRR.
  23. MN Transplant
    I’m impressed that the precip totals are on the high side of guidance, at least from DC south. Still only 32.0. Edit - My skycam
  24. MN Transplant
    0.74” fell with temps below freezing and there is basically no impact except pretty trees.
  25. MN Transplant
    Paved surfaces are fine but when we get a little more light the trees are going to look spectacular. This could have been a huge mess at 28 rather than 31 degrees.
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