MN Transplant

It gets DC to about 1" QPF, all snow. Kuceras are going to be large.

This run doesn't bring the warmth anywhere near us.

We spent days not wanting the GFS solution, now it is our best hope

GFS still with a weak 850 low like this morning. This shouldn't end up like the ICON or even the Euro.

One thing that I'm noticing is that the models with a stronger 850 low in the central US are the ones that are able to drive it up to Cleveland and eventually draw up the warm sector for us at the end of the storm. The GFS does not do that, with a weak 850 low that is eventually replaced by a new low that forms off of Cape May, NJ.

This is what the Euro looks like above ground over DC. 1000mb at the bottom, going up by 50mb to 800mb and then by 100mb. So, there isn’t necessarily any sneaky layer, it is just the 850-700mb level we lose later on in the storm. Via Windy

From above, it looks like almost half of the members have 6" or less.

Not quite as good

While we are waiting for the GFS, here is a nice visualization of the 06z GEFS members for IAD. https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/plumes/

My brother got a faint glow outside of Frederick. Camera visible only.

Went from ~0.06" QPF to ~0.75" around DC from 12z to 18z. Love the GFS.

Be careful with Kucera!

GDPS is great, but I'd pump the brakes on HECS-level. DC and north looks like it is <1" QPF.

Exactly. This is a fail as far as what we want, but that is a solid northern stream vort that does some good work for us. Still a couple to a few inches of snow with temps in the teens.

The SW low is in exactly the same spot as the 12z GFS.

I was just poking around the Euro and had to go all the way down to Rocky Mount/Raleigh before a warm nose at 725mb showed up. It is amazing how cold these runs are.

At least until we get convergence on the individual members. This is still a substantial spread on the GFS. Still ~8 of 20 members that are duds for most of us.

And showing the suppressed GFS isn't going to get clicks.

The models didn't know. We all did.

Chuckles nervously in Minnesota Vikings... Looking back at the prior runs, it was the 12z GFS run yesterday that figured out that the storm was not a cutter. Since then it has been consistently south, but we have plenty of time. The other solutions this morning are really fun to see.

@high risk would have a better explanation, but usually if the models are struggling with surface temps while everything else looks normal, it is something to do with how they are implementing approximations via a boundary layer scheme. Global and regional models simply can't calculate everything, so you effectively end up with little "models" inside of models. Models have always struggled with how to calculate the mixing and radiative transfer near the surface in stable conditions. The Euro is handling this poorly, which is how you get a minus teens forecast for parts of Virginia next week, which is not going to happen. I think it is even struggling with temps in the pre-storm period on Saturday, given the much colder surface temps than the GFS despite only 1° difference at 925mb. I'd just be cautious with any surface temp output from the Euro right now.

Just a reminder that the Euro surface temps are completely broken, so go with the GFS and adjust based on storm location if you think the Euro track is better.

We had not-even-close-to-accumulating flurries so I'm pretty sure they'll be a T. The discussion in this thread about slick streets is a completely different world from what we experienced around DC.

Trace of snow both days this weekend.

Cold and dry