binbisso

The average forecast high for Central Park on December 13th is 44° so 50° is not a big deal. What's a big deal is temperatures in the teens for lows and highs in the 20s for Thursday and Friday this coming week really going to knock down the departures and looks very unlikely we'll finish with a positive departure for December

How so? Blue Wave and isotherm are on the warm train. isotherm called for +1 to 2 temperature departures for December. We are -2.3 so far this month with the bitter cold air mass coming Wednesday night through next Saturday. We're probably going to be -3 or better by the 21st not going to make that up the last 10 days. Also they're probably spin it because most of the country is warm except for our area but they specifically forecast for our area. Also if we get a few inches of snow on Monday will be very close to normal for December with two weeks to go. I will add that isotherm North Atlantic forecast is going to bust if guidance is correct with the Nao and ao. We will have had two episodes of negative Nao and the AO supposedly going to tank the last half of the month. His forecast called for no blocking in the Atlantic for December. And bluewaves mjo forecast is incorrect as it's going to probably miss the warm phases and come out in the cold of phases later this month. If I'm not mistaken he was calling for the same mjo propagation as last year

Me too!. The one feature that's been consistent since summer is the 50/50 Low. No way we're we're torching if that continues. just a continuation of cold high pressure to our North which as we get later in the season even with an unfavorable Pacific and cutters we will still be dealing with a lot of mixed events and eventually Storm Track should start shifting South. With the upcoming system this Tuesday that's three systems to track the first 17 days of December and most areas 20 or so miles north and west of New York City are probably above-average snowfall so far. I'll take this any December

1.5" here. 3" for the season so far. Looks like a winter wonderland here. If anyone lives in the Bronx take a drive through Pelham Bay Park on Pelham Parkway heading towards City Island what a beautiful sight this morning

Yes snow it's tough living in the city where everything is basically pavement. I'm one town outside of the Bronx and it looks like a winter wonderland everything's covered except the street and part of the sidewalk. blacktop grass all covered with about an inch of accumulation just eyeballing it. I will measure after the last band comes through

Heavy snow in the South Bronx 34° coldest surfaces are starting to get slushy if it continues like this for a few hours we should do pretty well

Very volatile mid and long-range pattern right now. What I like is cold air is close by and very active pattern with both the northern and southern stream.

Yes nobody likes snow to rain. And that storm was fun to experience. With the pattern we're in we have a chance because it's cold enough unlike the last several December's and Winters in general where it was just too warm to snow. If it's 50 degrees and you have a benchmark track what good is that. We have a chance this December that's all I'm asking for.

My preference is for it to be winter in winter. And I prefer it to be cold and tracking 10 to 15 storms per year and they all can be between 1 to 6 in and that would be an A+ winter for me. The worst winter I've ever lived through happened a few years ago during the Super El Nino when we had the one blizzard that gave us two and a half feet of snow. I don't think there was another storm to track that whole winter much worse than the 80s and 90s in my opinion. Edit. Actually the winter of 9798 was the worst winter I've ever experienced then came the super el nino a few years ago in a close second

I never mentioned anything about a 6 Plus in snowfall since I'm 57 years old I know how rare they are except for this last decade. I lived Thru the horrible 80s and mostly 90s takeaway 93 94 and 95 96. My point was basically that were in a cold pattern and that without cold enough air it will not snow and can not snow which has been the case for many of the December's this decade. I'm perfectly fine with 1 to 3 and 3 to 6 in snow falls. And those are much easier to achieve even with a cutter when there's Arctic are in place as it will snow quite often on the front end especially as we head into late December and January. Those 1040 MB highs are hard to push out the deeper we get into the cold season

Yes this is true but that was a fluke last year in November. If temperature stay below normal the rest of the month as it has been I'm sure we're going to score on a few events. may not be all snow but we should add to December's total. Edit. I believe the main ingredient for snow is cold arctic air and we've had a few Arctic breakouts since November 1st and another one for next week. We will eventually get a low pressure to push into this cold air only a matter of time

I really enjoy reading your post in the morning but sometimes I scratch my head as to where you get your figures from. We are below normal through Sunday then two well above normal days Monday and Tuesday and then three well below normal days Wednesday Thursday and Friday. We are well below normal over the next 7 days according to guidance. Edit. Looking a little more closely at guidance for Wednesday Thursday and Friday of next week -8 Wednesday -20 Thursday - 15 Friday would like to know what numbers you have. we ar in the 20s Thursday and Friday for highs which is about 20 degrees below normal

Since November 1st Central Park has had 26 below normal Days 7 above normal and two exactly normal. Looking at guidance over the next seven days five are below normal and 2 above normal. That would give us 31 of the last 42 days below normal. What's even more impressive it that 17 of those 31 below normal days had a departure of -5 or lower. there's no way to cut it, we are in a cold pattern right now and there are really no signs it's going to stop anytime soon

This is from PSU Hoffman in the Mid-Atlantic forum who I always enjoy reading his insights. They have some really good discussion is in there medium-range thread. I thought I would post it here for us to see. I hope he doesn't mind. QBO for November came in at 5.07. Looking at the progression the closest matches to this year are 2004, 2002, 1997, 1978, and 1969. Of those the best match purely on QBO continues to be 2002 with the last 3 months all being nearly identical. Of the 15 winter months those years the AO was negative 12/15 months. The only year of those that didn't feature a -AO for 2/3 months was 2004-5 but it is notable that year started with an extremely +AO and flipped mid January. There were 2 other years that were somewhat close, 1955 and 1961. If we include those the AO was negative 17/21 months.

December looks to be following in the footsteps of November where a very negative departure for the first 15 days may be hard to overcome. We are below normal the rest of this week and then warm up briefly Monday and Tuesday before the next arctic front comes in later next week. that should take us through the 15th and will probably be negative 5 in the departure that's tough to overcome but we will see

Considering I was at 27 degrees with rain and some sleet this morning surprised that it flipped to snow specially in Piscataway

That's probably 1 to 2" an hour rates over there should be heading up this way shortly

Snow and sleet here coating on the ground in southern Westchester anybody watching the Giant game Heavy big wet flakes coating on the field fun to watch

Very light sleet here in southern Westchester looks like we're going to have to wait for the stronger lift to cool the whole column to change over to snow but it looks like this could be an icy scenario with my temperature at 28 degrees currently

Down to 29 degrees already dew point of 14 in southern Westchester

Nice trend on the AO today going to briefly peak positive many members now take it negative in the longer range also the mjo looks to die off in Phase 3 avoiding. 4 5 and 6 definitely a different progression than last year but we shall see as guidance usually doesn't have a good handle on the mjo

For the first part of the storm we need precipitation to get here as quickly as possible but even if it's delayed a couple hours I think we're going to see minor accumulations even down to the coast dew points are around 10 degrees right now and there should be good radiational cooling tonight away from the urban heat island as for the second part of the storm we're almost going to have to wait and watch the radar and see where the banding sets up very tough forecast really feel for all you meteorologist trying to put out a forecast for this

Good trend on the AO today after a brief Spike many members take it negative again also the mjo looks to die in Phase 3 avoiding 4 5 and 6 hopefully it will come out again in the colder phases later in December we shall see but definitely a different mjo progression than last year

The ukie has Northern New Jersey all of the lower Hudson Valley and all of Connecticut below zero c850s through hours 72 looks like a good front end thump don't have thermals be on that

The uk transfers to the Delmarva a hour 72 993 MB low south of Montauk at hour 96 looks like a big hit