binbisso

Central Park reporting 2 hundreds of an inch of liquid should be 1st measurable snow tonight that's as of 3:08 AM. Probably more now let's see if we can squeak out an inch tonight Nice Christmas Eve surprise

Moderate snow everything covered including roads in The Bronx about a 1/2 inch on the coldest surfaces coming down pretty good clip

I don't think anyone is hyping cold and snow Actually I think it's the opposite. Obviously this week is lost So nothing to speak about through Friday However the pattern does start to turn favorable after that there's nothing wrong with talking about post 7 day ensembles.

What are you looking for a full latitude PNA ridge a West base NAO and a negative EPO for it to snow here. It has snowed in worse patterns than what the ensembles are showing Post 12/20. It's a very serviceable pattern and I'd be surprised if it doesn't snow for at least parts of our area during that time frame

I believe we've had negative PNA patterns and above normal snowfall here. When other indices are favorable I believe a negative PNA can add to the potential for snowfall here (many SW in the flow) especially indices like the AO/NAO. It's extremely hard to get the perfect pattern at 500mb But the pattern starting from around December 20th onwards looks serviceable

From Webb 'PNA/-NAO patterns like this can often look deceptively warm in the extended b/c of the SE US ridge at 500mb. However, they're notorious for sneaky backdoor cold fronts & cold air damming along the eastern seaboard, that usually doesn't show up until we're in the medium range.

lol. Yes. He usually beats me to it.

"Euro/GFS/GGEM all have something to watch for 12/20 timeframe. They also have one for 12/18 but it seems like NNE might be the place to be for snow in that one. " Here is a great example of what I'm talking about. This from a poster in the New England forum. I know you'll say this is from the New England region but half of our region averages more snow than Connecticut. It's 9 days away and it's on the ensembles and besides a few posters all you hear about is how warm it's gonna be Or how fast the Pacific jet is but there is a very real possibility that we snow during that time frame for at least parts of this region. I mean half the fun is tracking the other half Is when it verifies

Yeah but that region in northeast New Jersey should be in the southern mid Atlantic since their climate is closer to Virginia Beach. That area is warmer than philly through New York including Trenton and Eastern PA

Central Park is probably next which is a little surprising since most reporting stations in the boroughs are still in the fifties except for Staten Island

Well I have to tend to disagree. Weather is all about probabilities. Let's say there's a 25% chance of cold and snow in the 7 to 14 day forecast. In this region that percentage is never discussed. Posters from other Regions like ORH, Carver's, psu Hoffman And others would discuss that possibility but not really in this region except for MJO allsnow and Eastern LI. By the way over the years that 25% has verified quite often

Reagan, Reagan, Bush senior, Clinton, Clinton, Bush junior, Obama, Obama, did not vote trump. slightly right leaning independent. It just seems that in this region most people are on the warm side compared to the other forums im on and the other regions on this site.

I agree and understand 100% The baseline is only gonna be going higher.

Yes I agree we know it's warm and it's only gonna be getting warmer why is everyone so impressed with this is beyond me. what makes anyone think we are going to revert back to any kind of normal or cooler than normal temperature regime going forward

Agree to disagree. went through this this yesterday what would make you think that we are going to stop this raging warming climate. I'd be more impressed with A day in the teens than a record breaking 70ﾟ

As we head towards peak climo end of the month through January we don't need super cold temperatures to snow and we probably would want a hint of a Southeast ridge. We don't want the Front blowing through Jacksonville we want the baroclinic zone to be near us

True. However this warm up looks muted may be lasting 5 or 6 days. Probably not wearing shorts and a T-shirt any time this week although from the post you read on here you would think that was gonna happen. the poster from Coney island is saying plus 14 for the next 8 days let's see if that verifies

I was specifically talking about our area I could care less what happens in Chicago or Omaha +1.4 in the park through the 1st 10 days of December is not impressive even in the new 30 year Cycle.

60S for 6 hours today and probably on Thursday Plus 5 or so for the rest of the week I think people are gonna fail on calling for a record warm December. Edit: Plus probably very little sunshine during this warm up. What a way to run a torch pattern

55ﾟ cloudy foggy and drizzle If this is what a torch means you can have it

I know I shouldn't take the bait but are you joking or do you have other reasoning

I'm not saying we shouldn't do everything we can to try and reverse climate change However do you think anything's gonna change in the foreseeable future. I don't. Warmer is the new normal that's just the way it is and there's nothing that I on my own can do about it

Maybe I'm looking at this incorrectly I don't know. Our climate is warming With greater increments each decade and there's no reason to believe that would stop. This year should end up warmer than last year and the next year warmer than this year. so if a year/decade can end up cooler than the previous year/decade that would surprise me more.

Sorry I disagree This is not the 1990s Our climate is warming pretty rapidly and there's no reason to believe it won't continue. I expect warmer than normal temperatures each month and year(esp with 30 year averages) Except in anomalously cold patterns. I'm more impressed with a negative 5 departure than I am with a plus 15.

Even this upcoming torch pattern looks Muted. We get plus 10 departures Saturday and next Thursday and only slightly above normal Sunday through Wednesday However Sunday's mean will be skewed with the midnight high Saturday night prior to the frontal passage The same probably happens next Friday. So if guidance is remotely correct 13 of 17 days will average normal and then you will have 4 days at + 10 departures with the cutters due to the unfavorable storm track