binbisso
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Everything posted by binbisso
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@bluewave The 1st 10 days were not a warm pattern. It was A unfavorable pattern for snow With 2 cutters which skewed the means. December 2nd and December 6th were plus 9 + 12 at islip the other 8 days averaged below normal.
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
binbisso replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
@40/70 Benchmark isn't this nina now east based? These are current surface temps for each region using the tropical tidbit site 4/ -.645 3.4/ -.844 3/ -1.084 1.2/ -1.679. -
Ensembles keep pushing back on this warm up. It's obviously gonna warm up for a bit but But maybe for not so long. The polar vortex on our side of the globe probably has something to do with it. Old run New run
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It is very interesting. I don't think 2011 2012 type Winter this year. not a wall to wall Winter either as I think those are pretty rare but we should have our opportunities this Winter
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That a pretty impressive 486 1000-500mb dm in Southern quebec which can Do the job to at least get front end accumulating snow even across the coastal plain. To Snowman 19 we don't need a negative NA O to have a light to moderate snowfall here. We did very well between 2010 and 2020 with a mainly positive NAO
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Very dry lately with down sloping gusty Northwest winds. I've noticed that the models have been too cool with temperatures. Do they factor in down sloping winds and soil moisture into their algorithms?
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It's solidly East based. What the Implications are I'm not sure. usually East based LA Nina's are better for our area if you like snow and cold
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I thought this was gonna be a moderate to strong LA Nina. Didnt someone post last week that 3.4 and 4 were gonna fall off sharply? What happened?
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Today's teles and MJO forecast look better than recent days they now have the MJO going into phase 7 And while the AO/NAO trend positive they look to bring it back to neutral. I know Snowman 19 feels and I agree with him that the MJO will have a tough time getting into favorable phases, however I do think that with The colder temps now established in regions 3 and 1.2 we have a chance to get convection over or near the date line. We shall see
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A -epo Will usually dump the cold into the central US. Storm track would be to our West with lots of cutters especially with no nao help. It's not the end all be all for Winter forecast.
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Totally agree. So far the mjo standing wave is weak and other factors seem to be driving the pattern. many forecasted a warm November even up to a week ago and now looks like November will be solidly below normal Probably negative one to negative 2 for CPK. 1st negative 10 departure on Tuesday? More cold coming next weekend.
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Yeah I realized I read too much into it that's why I edited it. Thanks for your response enjoy reading your Winter forecast each year
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Using euro MJO guidance it doesn't look to progress out of the COD Until early December when it comes out in either 6 or 7. Assuming it's correct I would hope it would continue to progress into 8 by latter half of December which would be great timing. As far as the strat you can have it. if we're relying on an SSW to save Winter count me out half the time they don't even favor us. Not implying you favor that just stating how I feel. Edit: just keep the spv weak. I'll roll the dice with that
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Am I missing something here. the MJO is basically in the COD through early December. granted it will be between phases 4 and 6 but will it have any influence on the weather pattern during this time frame? I don't think so. I think other factors will play a bigger role in determining our our sensible weather through at least early to mid December.
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GEPS also corrected colder day 10+. Back to a western ridge. Looking at the gfs individual members about 12 have an inch or more of snow for nyc on north thru turkey day. Probably not happening but can't be ruled out
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If guidance is remotely correct we're going to be solidly below normal by the 20th. I don't see most of the area above normal for November except for Newark of course. Sorry had to throw that in there lol
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Yup. Classic coupled Nina. Fast start. Cold Canada.
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It looks like the GEFS Corrected towards the EPS around day 9. Actually the G EFS has below normal 850's day 9th through the end of the run. also today's operational euro has some mighty cold air in Canada day 9 and 10 I know it's the operational but its ensembles usually follow suit. Models usually have a tough time during the fall with long range forecasts so take with a grain of salt.
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Ok impact of climate change. Warmer temps for sure But 15 of the last 20 years have had normal or above normal snowfall. And I disagree about Winter forecaster's most are not biased at all. we know the few who are. listen to them at your own peril.
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https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202110311046-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX I'll be there and donate hedge cutters, glasses and a yard stick. Edit: It's a virtual ceremony so may have to send package in the mail
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the last few model cycles look to bring in some pretty cold air next week. 1st cold front Monday with slightly below normal temps the next one around the 4th or 5th looks pretty impressive could be negative 10 to 15 departures. Maybe 1st freeze for many areas away from the coast. Let's see if it holds
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@donsutherland1 in your post above you have Nino 1.2 at slightly positive right now however when I look at tropical tidbits ocean analysis it's showing Nino 1.2 at -.8. Am I reading it wrong or is there another site with more accurate analysis? Edit. Nino 1.2 has also been negative for the last 6 weeks on tropical tidbits site
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Yup. Even going forward the temperatures look to be near normal through the 1st half of November if long range guidance and weekly's are correct. Negative 10 departures do us no good until we get late November and onward. And who likes 48ﾟ and rain the first half of November.
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I'm a winter weather lover however We are far from Winter. You're crazy if you haven't loved the weather the last 6 weeks. highs in the seventies and lows around 60 perfect. it could stay this way till Thanksgiving for all I care then we can flip
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That is probably true 30 plus years ago But in our new sub tropical climate as some posters here have pointed out Warmer and wetter seems more likely. We could have a dry month or even a dry year In certain patterns but that's probably more the exception than the rule going forward
