binbisso

My sister in laws house Charlotte nc today

I love to see this. It could end up being an epic Winter for 75% of the US with northern New England being the worst in a moderate LA Nina

moderate la nina With above normal snowfall from DC through the Southeast, northern Gulf coast Tennessee, Kentucky. well below average snowfall for northern New England england I guess Snowman 19 would have predicted that

I wonder if those weak lows well out in the Atlantic missed the phase with the northern stream. There's about 10 members that look like it would have minimal to no impact to our area. I think that's the piece going forward we have to look for when where and if the northern stream phases in

Yup you now have about 1/3 of the Members over the Atlantic compared to 12Z when there was 2

Is it possible that the shortwave phasing on the back side of the low causing it to go due North from the carolinas Slows down and the phase never occurs? Will this cause a possible colder and snowier solution?

@snowman19 my deepest condolences for your loss. I lost my wife to breast cancer 10 years ago. It's a devastating illness. Hopefully they find a cure.

In wake of polar trough, northern stream upper flow will dominate mid to late week with E US trough amplifying in response to a series of shortwaves moving through the flow. The shortwave energy of note appears to be NE PAC origin, diving towards the SE US coast for midweek. General agreement with this energy being the catalyst for northern and southern stream phasing Thu/Fri with development of closed low upper low and strong low pressure off the SE US coast. At this time, model consensus is that that this phasing will take place too far east in a progressive flow, keeping developing low pressure well east of the region. Since this is still 5-6 days out, with these interactions inherently tough for models to resolve, something that bears watching through the week for development and track closer to the coast. Otherwise, locally just a weak and dry frontal passage on Thursday in response to digging and eastward translating northern stream trough.

.15le With close to 3" is it possible that we're having 20:1 ratio?

heavy snow in The Bronx eyeballing inch and a 1/2 radar looks good

Snowing in The Bronx and 30ﾟ

6Z nam well West and juiced up. A solid 3 to 6" across the area more to the East. 996MB low off the Jersey coast

Yup imagine we grab a couple of inches tomorrow and a moderate snowfall next Friday. Most of the area would be above normal snowfall With a plus 5 departure for the 1st 5 and a 1/2 weeks of Winter

I agree except this is not your typical coastal storm with cold air already in place Trying to hold on. This is a wave forming on the cold front with some pretty good CAA under way. This is one where we need the South East Ridge to hold on longer

That's a nice hit for the Southern half of this sub form especially with the cold temperatures forecast Monday through Wednesday it will look wintry outside. Any chance this can shift 50 miles further Northwest to get everyone in the goods

The euro is warning level snows for the Southern half of New Jersey and extreme Eastern Long Island advisory snows for the rest of Long Island and the Southern boroughs

Wow the GFS with 20" of snow for Atlantic City incredible it does get around 2" into the city 6" around Long Branch New Jersey

Central Park reporting 2 hundreds of an inch of liquid should be 1st measurable snow tonight that's as of 3:08 AM. Probably more now let's see if we can squeak out an inch tonight Nice Christmas Eve surprise

Moderate snow everything covered including roads in The Bronx about a 1/2 inch on the coldest surfaces coming down pretty good clip

I don't think anyone is hyping cold and snow Actually I think it's the opposite. Obviously this week is lost So nothing to speak about through Friday However the pattern does start to turn favorable after that there's nothing wrong with talking about post 7 day ensembles.

What are you looking for a full latitude PNA ridge a West base NAO and a negative EPO for it to snow here. It has snowed in worse patterns than what the ensembles are showing Post 12/20. It's a very serviceable pattern and I'd be surprised if it doesn't snow for at least parts of our area during that time frame