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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    And almost certainly will spell the end of our snowpack barring more storms after next week, regardless of what might or might not happen this weekend.
  2. crossbowftw3
    So it looks like we probably won’t have a storm for this weekend upcoming: can reasonably infer now that it will spell the end of our pack without any storm threats until probably after next week. The March transitional period can be weird but here’s hoping we can see some snowcover on the first day of Spring.
  3. crossbowftw3
    So, do we still have anything with this or should we move on and look at any possible threats after next week?
  4. crossbowftw3
    I’m going for 10 above tonight +/-5. Somehow we will still hold the pack here despite the fact that some serious grass patches are now emerging. The death knell for our pack is almost certainly the warmup for next week—IF we see 50+ degrees for more than a day or two.
  5. crossbowftw3
    Totally expecting 60s next week and then a 10” snow the week after. I think we’re all due for a March surprise.
  6. crossbowftw3
    ftfy
  7. crossbowftw3
    Using MSV as the measuring stick around 65” a year, probably slightly lower here at 700’ compared to their 1200’ if Tuesday/Wednesday is the last appreciable snow chance that isn’t from any weird season transition thing, then I welcome it, this winter was good overall
  8. crossbowftw3
    Still need roughly 10” IMBY in Sullivan to meet average which is crazy to think about with two 12+ storms with one of them being over 20”; I would tend to believe we see one more big snow and maybe a few more minor-moderate events before we’re truly finished for this winter.
  9. crossbowftw3
    Pi Day and then 2018 tell me that this can totally happen in March, still need roughly 10” to actually meet average for this winter which is shocking to think about overall that we still are slightly below normal for snow if the death band was only so much more south in December we would’ve been at least 5-10” above average
  10. crossbowftw3
    I’ll tentatively guess that we’re probably done with events that give over 8” but I’ve seen March do weirder things. Would not be shocked for one more major snow and maybe 1-2 minor-moderate events before we are truly done with this winter. For now, I’ll enjoy this warmup, however relatively muted it is.
  11. crossbowftw3
    Just catching up since this evolved right under my nose while I was dealing with other affairs yesterday. 2-4 looks good for BGM’s WWA where I probably only see 2” of slop at my house because surface temperatures look otherwise highly questionable
  12. crossbowftw3
    2 at my elevation and maybe up to 4 for you. Just catching up since this evolved quickly
  13. crossbowftw3
    Looks to be about another 2.5” OTG over the course of the overnight so storm total sits at around 4.5” with maybe another 1-2” today but I wouldn’t count on it given current radar presentation for at least us inland folks
  14. crossbowftw3
    pretty solid idea
  15. crossbowftw3
    Ran out to shovel and estimated about 2.5" or so has fallen to this point, give or take. Looking for maybe another 1-4 or so with the next wave.
  16. crossbowftw3
    ERCOT just said that Texas’s power grid was a mere MOMENTS AWAY FROM CATASTROPHIC FAILURE:
  17. crossbowftw3
    Generally speaking yes, most of our accumulations should be happening between now and then.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Finally into the snow here in Sullivan with an overall light-moderate intensity. We probably won’t see more than 2-3 out of this initial burst before the lighter stuff takes over
  19. crossbowftw3
    We could definitely bust low but we can still get to say 4” or so just from duration and ratios. this will make it north but without a doubt we probably don’t see heavier rates
  20. crossbowftw3
    Radar doesn’t look too friendly right now as it looks like the snow is getting stunted from making much more forward progress. Could bust low but ratios and longer duration of lighter snows can still get 4-6”
  21. crossbowftw3
    Meanwhile here north of 84 it looks like precip still getting held south by the drier air....could bust low here but we can still get to 5-6” purely by longer duration/ratios alone
  22. crossbowftw3
    Eyeballing between .5-1” after the quick shot earlier on this morning, now having to wait for the first main wave to inch northward (if it does)
  23. crossbowftw3
    correct. generally speaking only 1-2" will be falling for every 6 hours of this storm's residence.
  24. crossbowftw3
    WWA for 3-7 here: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Pike and Wayne counties. In New York, Sullivan county. * WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact commutes starting with Thursday morning.
  25. crossbowftw3
    There we go, these were what I was looking for
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