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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    A thread. From one of SPC's lead forecasters, no less. Conclusion: significant outbreak is growing ever more probable.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Day 2 Moderate Risk will be needed at this point across the south. All models today are steadily inching closer to a potentially significant event. This is a nasty sounding.
  3. crossbowftw3
    the map you posted in the New England subforum looks like a hint at some LES going across WNY too
  4. crossbowftw3
    So to bring things back around for Wednesday’s threat down south: https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1371364187478224897?s=19
  5. crossbowftw3
    Whatever happens late this week, it’s probably curtains for any truly meaningful snow barring late season LES until October at bare minimum. Let’s make it count
  6. crossbowftw3
    Dry as a bone this morning making it feel even colder let’s see what happens late week. Quite probably winter’s last dance with respects to any meaningful snow for perhaps the next 7 months
  7. crossbowftw3
    Winter’s last dance perhaps. Let’s see what happens
  8. crossbowftw3
    I admit that this whole week's potential for some wintry events has been rather hard to follow in part because of the v16's inbound implementation. I don't think this would be more than a minor event regardless.
  9. crossbowftw3
    We might see dew points drop to negatives at some point which has to be some kind of record in association with this.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Looking potentially interesting for a little topper to our season. I'd lean lower on potential ranges but 1-4" seems like a good bet.
  11. crossbowftw3
    If this does become something, are we looking at uniform 10:1 or higher wrt ratios? I understand it's late season but also looking to fall at night. Also looks like it generates a lake response for our friends upstate.
  12. crossbowftw3
    This is a dizzyingly wide warm sector on the NAM
  13. crossbowftw3
    This is a Warm Sector you should be seeing in April or May down south, not March. This is becoming increasingly concerning.
  14. crossbowftw3
    The level of concern I hold for Wednesday's severe event down south is escalating. This wide warm sector could be accompanied by favorable shear, LRs, moderate forcing, and very favorable surface track. This is a warm sector you should be seeing in April or May, not March. This is getting increasingly worrying.
  15. crossbowftw3
    Some vbv exists in the soundings but the broad-brush potential of this event cannot be understated.
  16. crossbowftw3
    Fred Gossage is sounding alarm bells here. Knowing what other event for which he raised the alarm bells days out, that’s enough to garner attention.
  17. crossbowftw3
    Twitter, mostly, where some chasers will post their streams
  18. crossbowftw3
    Pretty substantial potential verbatim as of this moment, but vbv exists in soundings so cautiously sending out the message as of now
  19. crossbowftw3
    Keeping abreast of the developing situation for today’s event in Texas. First moderate risk of the season and a decent parameter space to back it up. We will see what happens later.
  20. crossbowftw3
    The parameter space looks good, but will cells stay discrete for long enough remains the question hrrr dews for later..healthy area of low 60s.
  21. crossbowftw3
    And I may say that the early look the models are giving paint a not-so-pretty-picture...
  22. crossbowftw3
    Watching from afar here in New York. Day 5 broad-brush 15% into the Lower Ohio Valley. The overall look is beginning to look pretty dang ugly at this range.
  23. crossbowftw3
    Potential severe event as well down south. One of perhaps multiple in the coming weeks. @weatherwiz probably has eyes on.
  24. crossbowftw3
    maybe have a gender reveal party while you're at it
  25. crossbowftw3
    Very good winter overall and those of us inland have maybe 1-2 more shots to push us AN for the season. Still wonder what could have been if the death band was 70 miles south on 12/16-17.
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