Kmlwx

Looks like our main water line into the house is leaking perhaps at the point where it enters the house. Weird that it would coincide with heavy rain...which tells me maybe it's rain related and not overtly a water supply line issue. None of the 24 hour services seem to have anything until later in the morning - so we are holding for our plumber. Any ideas?

Lull coming soon.

Near Sligo Creek Pkwy and Maple. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/md/nwis/uv/?site_no=01650800&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060,62615,62620

It just updated (must be hourly at night maybe)...but it's showing a decent rise at the 11:45pm update. 210cfs for discharge and 2.79ft

Places like @H2O - definitely don't even need moderate rain - let alone heavy. House here is OK as we are on a hill - though a little puddling can come into the garage (I just put in a new seal the other day!). That was some impressive rainfall IMBY for a time - it's a bit lighter for the moment.

The coordinates for it put it near that old bridge that's closed off. It seems like it's just a hair south of actual Randolph Rd. This time of year probably not visible from the road - but perhaps in winter?

It does seem there will be a lull (no backbuilding at the moment) behind this stuff and ahead of the next wave to the south (if that stuff survives up here, that is)

For archival sake -

What a deluge out there - NWS posted a flash flood warning now. Well warranted if this keeps up. I'm keeping an eye on the USGS gauge on NW Branch near Kemp Mill Rd. EDIT: The gauge hasn't updated since 0245z (about an hour ago at this point). It does generally lag a bit - but normally only by 30-45 mins. Suspect that the next update will show rising water at this point. Link below for both of you as it should be fairly representative for any creeks in our area. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/md/nwis/uv/?site_no=01650500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060,62615,62620 https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph_to_xml.php?gage=clam2&output=tabular

Dumping here in Colesville, MD. Power is out as well.

Fred is having a big blowup of convection right now...

Not surprised, honestly. Given how quickly they got drenched the other night...not going to take much to get those torrents of water rising again. There's been some really neat radar depictions the past week or two as well.

Pre-emptive FFW out already.

For the GEFS versus the GEPS - the GEPS would be much more likely to bring us impacts locally (available on TropicalTidbits).

18z NAM takes the center of the remnants on a pretty different track compared to the 18z NAM nest. NAM nest is pretty far north and west with the center around our region...12km NAM would seemingly be better for a closer in pass.

Decent amount of rain on radar between Stafford and the US-22 area east of Culpeper. Suspect the splotchy radar we've seen the past few days will continue.

That was crystal clear in the new normals data

No risk area on the D3 SPC outlook. So that means at this range we are absolutely in business

The good old fashioned "rubber band theory" - snap back far in the other direction!

Certainly not expecting an Ivan-esque outbreak - but there seems to be some decent agreement now that the remnants will post an iso tor threat (as well as some isolated flooding risk as well). What a wet pattern lately!

NAM is solid for the Fred remnants.

A little further east could bode well for impacts up here I'd think.

My questions are - how much of a defined center will remain - and whether it will pass too far to the west for any severe threat.

Prior to the last day or so - KLWX was blue like that but all the TDWRs were grey and wouldn't return any data. Can confirm it's not due to a GR update as both machines were on 2.92 before and after it popped up.

Either something changed with my data feed or they finally lit up the TDWRs on GR2AE (I use the IA State feed). But they had been greyed out for me until yesterday.