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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Earlier 12z CIPS run has 5/2/2016 and 5/13/2002 in the analogs. The 2002 date was a MDT risk day.
  2. Kmlwx
    Mid-level lapse rates suck on the NAM. Timing could also adjust since we are several days out. NAM does give us sunshine that morning (for now)
  3. Kmlwx
    CIPS has a few heavy hitter events sprinkled in the next 48 hours.
  4. Kmlwx
    Yep. I saw two maybe. Not a storm though!
  5. Kmlwx
    I'm really, really, really hoping this is something special. I remember seeing the 1997 Leonids with my dad.
  6. Kmlwx
    Could have been a sporadic (not attached with any distinct shower) but apparently there was a bona fide Tau Herculid seen on a meteor camera a day or two ago. Fingers crossed this turns out to be something! Odds aren't high, though!
  7. Kmlwx
    Mesoanalysis does have some instability available in our area still. Not expecting anything widespread - but yeah a last hurrah SVR is not out of the question. I'm hearing some thunder here now.
  8. Kmlwx
    ENTLN is showing a few strikes near Sugarland Run now.
  9. Kmlwx
    Line is doing a last hurrah effort between Walkersville and down to Manassas. It'll likely be sub-severe but guessing there might be a last minute uptick in storminess.
  10. Kmlwx
    Isolated flooding threat may evolve in MoCo - some heavy showers popping up.
  11. Kmlwx
    Looks like that is the dominant cell. Looks like this round will be a snoozer into DC proper for now at least. Just heavy rain in pockets unless a new cell gets going.
  12. Kmlwx
    TVS on GR2AE near Charlotte Hall.
  13. Kmlwx
    Something is trying just west of Charlotte Hall perhaps.
  14. Kmlwx
    Impressive storms down there in VA (and crossing into Charles Co, MD soon! Looks like the part of the line heading for me is pretty weak - still time, but I bet the more intense activity may rob the northern parts of some of the juice.
  15. Kmlwx
    I am watching (for MBY purely) the activity between around Staunton up to like Broadway, VA. That seems like the part of the line that may come through my area...if that stays anemic I think I'm done for the day with severe. I do think DC proper has a shot. I'd be watching closely if I lived in Spotsylvania/Stafford or lower southern Maryland.
  16. Kmlwx
    In all seriousness, I think the watch is well drawn. Will be curious to see how the storms behave as they come more north into the more stable airmass (though there is SOME CAPE). Charles County, MD and areas like Culpeper could be rocking!
  17. Kmlwx
    It's 0.4 miles from me. I'm contacting SPC to have them revise the outline to be a half mile north.
  18. Kmlwx
    However...using the watch box rather than county outline, the northern line of the watch is literally walking distance from MBY. So I will just say I'm impacted.
  19. Kmlwx
    Watch to the south of me boooooo
  20. Kmlwx
    Have gone form 65 or 66 back up to 69 now in Colesville. Getting little hints of sunshine now. Though it's not like high noon anymore. Not sure how much heating the sun will provide late in the day.
  21. Kmlwx
    I un-mehed as the line was rolling in earlier. Didn't hit severe here - and no damage IMBY - but it was a nice storm.
  22. Kmlwx
    Many of us aren't even in a slight risk anymore.
  23. Kmlwx
    Still stuck at 66 degrees here with full cloud cover. I may meh.
  24. Kmlwx
    The more recent HRRR runs have focused some better activity to the south in the next round but are a little less impressive than earlier runs in the immediate DC-Balt corridor.
  25. Kmlwx
    Showers running from SW of CHO down to Chatham, VA. Those could serve to increase cloud cover. We'll see how the pockets of clearing sustain or fill in in the NoVA/Central Maryland/DC areas in the next hour or two. The most recent mesoanalysis shows we are pretty worked over in terms of CAPE.
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