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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Ensembles still don't really favor any major east coast ridging. Seems the heat may end up pretty pretty seasonable overall. Still get your point. I'm really crossing my fingers we can make it through climo peak heat without and massive heat dome for our area. Would be a welcome relief. The heat has been really, really tolerable this season so far. I know we can still torch into August and even early September - but at least by the later parts of that period you can get some good cool front pushes with much lower dews.
  2. Kmlwx
    CIPS and SPC are not onboard with a Monday threat for now. CIPS is *really* quiet until the 168hr and 312hr time periods.
  3. Kmlwx
    Looks stormy all of a sudden on radar
  4. Kmlwx
    I'm up in Odenton tonight. Definitely saw the orange sunset
  5. Kmlwx
    PWS lightning count total is around 771 now. Really impressive. We lost power for a few mins but it came back quickly. Was watching that nasty wind core go through PG etc on my tablet. PEPCO outages up to 40K it looks like.
  6. Kmlwx
    Deep, booming strikes. VERY dark outside. Strike count up to 291 already now. Insane.
  7. Kmlwx
    PWS has detected 200 strikes already - most of those in the past 10 minutes.
  8. Kmlwx
    I'm kind of surprised LWX didn't have that warning go a bit further north and east - especially since we tend to get warnings for 50mph storms.
  9. Kmlwx
    I think it's more just the rear part of that "seahorse" shape. Don't think it's a down/microburst.
  10. Kmlwx
    Is that a downburst signature W of Darnestown? Or is that just from the outflow interacting?
  11. Kmlwx
    I mean...unless it collapses...I'm liking radar for MBY right now. Yeah..the outflow is right on top of me almost....but radar looks good and almost looks bow echo-ey well into MoCo.
  12. Kmlwx
    Big cluster of lightning on the ENTLN data just N of Ashburn and in the area of the river.
  13. Kmlwx
    My weenieism is hoping the line can bully the outflow boundary back a bit. Not saying you can't get storms behind the outflow...just that the threat would be more heavy rain oriented versus severe t'storms. I think Potomac to Chevy Chase to College Park looks pretty good for storms. You can tell the outflow has made the northern part of the line really messy/weak looking. Line is fighting hard, though - the part right east of Dulles has a lot of lightning detected on it.
  14. Kmlwx
    Outflow from the northern MD cells earlier has made it down to almost Gaithersburg and then over to Sandy Spring/Norwood and then to Simpsonville. Not long before it is knocking on my northern doorstep.
  15. Kmlwx
    The CIMMS shapefile seems slow to update today. Has routinely been a bit behind the storms. Thinking if that outflow from the MD storms gets to/past you, you might be ruled out for severe (but perhaps not for flooding). Matches well with the actual radar picture right now. It looks like it'll get to me before the actual storms. Thinking South of a line from Leesburg to Rockville to Hyattsville perhaps for best odds now.
  16. Kmlwx
    Velocity is NOTHING like it was earlier - but a few decent looking pixels SW of Leesburg. On mesoanalysis earlier I noted a little "tongue" of better MLLRs running through Central Maryland still. Plenty of CAPE - and not lead cells have ruined the airmass in MBY yet. Let's see how strong it can cycle back up to in the next 30 mins or so. It has likely already had it's peak. But not ruling out a wind core forming again.
  17. Kmlwx
    The radar is probably broken and giving a false return in Leesburg
  18. Kmlwx
    Well...out of what is currently that "line" or cluster - the most intense part might be heading right for you.
  19. Kmlwx
    Yep - decent uptick in lightning in two little "pods" one between Charles Town and Hillsboro and another in the previously mentioned area. And as I type this even more lightning now showing up. Let's see if it makes a run at higher end severe again.
  20. Kmlwx
    Some increase in reflectivity now between just west of Purcellville down towards NW of Middleburg. Whether it's just the radar or actually cycling up again remains to be seen. LWX radar has a hail marker again in GR2AE. Increase in lightning in that area as well which would indicate intensification.
  21. Kmlwx
    CIMMS probsevere placefile has been steadily coming down on the hail percentages on the VA line. But wind probs have stayed very elevated.
  22. Kmlwx
    I'm not sure it technically weakened - I think maybe there's some radar stuff and how it interacts with the terrain perhaps? Or just how reflectivity is imaged with the higher terrain. I remember there being tons of reports pretty solidly as it came through the mountains and into our area - and reduction in the LSRs from that event to the west might have been from just less population to report severe.
  23. Kmlwx
    Though - given our propensity to fail at weather around here - I get where he's coming from - Certainly seems like that complex has overall trended down just a tad recently. My main question is whether there will be new activity or if that existing stuff will "rejuvenate" or cycle back up.
  24. Kmlwx
    Over/under on 3 raindrops for YBY?
  25. Kmlwx
    I'm watching your area and Western MoCo...that outflow coming down from the north could interact with the incoming activity if it's timed right...maybe. My eyes are peeled on the TIAD radar for signs of new initiation. ETA: In fact...looking at visible satellite - there's perhaps hints of some agitation of the cumulus clouds right ahead of the big time storms/clouds from the west and north. Certainly watching for new development in the areas mentioned above. West/Central MoCo, Potomac River, Leesburg area, down to Haymarket maybe.
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