Kmlwx

Coworker says his folks lost power up near Clear Spring. Must have been with the gusts from that line.

MRB gusted to 59mph a little before the top of the hour.

Velocity scans look pretty impressive on that radar activity coming over the mountains now. We will start to battle less mixing from the sun going down - but my guess is there's a good surge of wind damage with that precip.

Sun doing the mixing work it seems. Good gusts here in Colesville now.

CIPS for the super long range is really lighting up for huge swaths of the US.

Looking at the NAM nest and HRRR wind gust product over on the CoD site - you'd not expect a HWW...both are relatively tame with gusts outside the ridge tops.

Toasty out there. For whatever reason the toads/frogs are sounding off out in my parent's yard right now. Whole chorus of them.

Remember to limit their intake! Digestive issues galore in high quantities!

The 168hr CIPS time slot from the 0z suite does have some severe potential over us. Nothing big, though.

Big wind here now. But with the precip side of things - I got like 15 rain drops earlier (Colesville, MD today)

Looking like the immediate DC-Balt corridor may be out of the game completely at this point. Thinking east of the Bay is where it's at. Oh well. We keep waiting for severe season!

I don't think you're ever talking out of your @ss when it comes to weather Then the fall has another window of sorts in September for some TOR related activity. This is of course ignoring any threat from tropical that could come August to October for the most part. Would seem to me that we are "due" (hate that term for the most part) for a derecho event. At least based on the average return periods for that type for stuff for the DC area.

Bet I know which camp wins out

April can perform under the right circumstances. I think April/May have slightly higher odds to go with in terms of things of the TOR variety. Probably into June too. But by June we tend to look for ring of fire type derecho stuff more so than tornadoes (other than an isolated event). All about lining up the shear that can be really good in spring with the instability that can be spectacular in the summer. By July we tend to be limited to the pulse severe stuff...don't get me wrong - a monster cell can blow up in July that delivers huge hail or major wind damage - but it's less likely to be the widespread mod risk type thing.

Wonder if the coming cold morning this week will slow/delay things.

No mounds at my parent's house or my place yet. But my parent's just had fresh mulch put down - so any holes *could* be concealed.

The super long range 6z HRRR has the activity waiting to fire until mainly east of the Chesapeake. 6z NAM nest still looks decent for a line, though.

NAM nest sim reflectivity certainly could look worse. I'll take it given that I'm not expecting much to begin with. Could keep us semi satisfied while we wait for something bigger to track.

All we've got for now - and really for the extended period as well... D4-8 discussion excerpt ...DISCUSSION... Low/mid-level winds will likely strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Wednesday as an upper trough moves eastward across these regions. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much low-level moisture will be present ahead of a cold front. If enough boundary-layer instability develops by Wednesday afternoon, then strong/damaging winds appear possible with any storms that can develop along or ahead of the quickly moving front. At this point, confidence in organized severe convection producing a swath of damaging winds remains too low to introduce 15% severe probabilities. Still, some severe risk appears possible from roughly eastern NC to southern NY, and this region may need to be included in low severe probabilities in a subsequent outlook.

It's not May yet...

We may end up being at early May for any appreciable severe threat (or later). CIPS is pretty much dormant for any analog related risk to our area for the next 1-2 weeks.

The last two storm days we've had - yesterday and the day last week, really have featured some nice lightning and thunder.

The ARW and NMMs have both been super paltry on sim reflectivity for multiple runs now. There was really only one long range HRRR run and one NAM nest run that got good storms into the area. Meh.

There's the marginal risk for tomorrow on the 1730z update.