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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    Recon just recorded 946 mb. Winds not impressive on this NW-SE fix but but should be higher in the NE.
  2. cptcatz
    Landfalling south of Naples would bring devestating impacts to the east coast, exactly like Wilma did. Dade-Broward-Palm Beach is the most populated part of the state and the eye going through there would be nearly worst case scenario.
  3. cptcatz
    That's an amazing structure for having just crossed over Cuba. Do you think cat 5 is on the table?
  4. cptcatz
    Tampa Bay has an average depth of only 12 feet so there is relatively very little water to pile up compared to all the water that can be pushed the other way from the GOM.
  5. cptcatz
    Northern eyewall back over water.
  6. cptcatz
    Recon just did fix the center to be moving east of north although very slightly.
  7. cptcatz
    06z Euro making landfall at Sarasota/Bradenton and 24 hours later only getting to Lakeland which is only 50 miles away. Although this run initializes at 989 mb over Cuba so not sure if the wrong intensity would affect the track.
  8. cptcatz
    Did that plane fly through the eye over land? I thought they don't do that.
  9. cptcatz
    The southeast trends continue...
  10. cptcatz
    12z Icon correcting way west. That was always the eastern outlier so it looks like everything is starting to come together. Tampa could dodge a huge bullet.
  11. cptcatz
    It will still have huge surge though. Surge isn't correlated with the intensity at landfall but is a function of the size, intensity, and time over water of the entire history of the storm. All the water that the storm was pushing out in front of it will still be there. Similar situation as Sandy which was a massive storm over water for a very long time and even though it made landfall with only cat 1 winds, those other factors caused 14 foot storm surges.
  12. cptcatz
    71 knots in the NE quad. Special advisory coming with upgrade to hurricane?
  13. cptcatz
    It's a bit north and west.
  14. cptcatz
    Yep Andy Hazelton tweeted that he was on it.
  15. cptcatz
    Not necessarily. Surge would be worse in the first scenario. Look at the difference between Katrina and Ida.
  16. cptcatz
    Not sure if I'm being a weenie but it kind of looks like the low level swirl is moving due north on visible. A little hard to tell through the taller clouds but that's what my eyes see.
  17. cptcatz
  18. cptcatz
    I mean is this even a cyclone?
  19. cptcatz
    Looks like convection is trying to wrap around a center at 14.5N 76W. That would be a full degree north of what recon found.
  20. cptcatz
    Euro saying Miami gets hits, GFS saying Tallahassee gets hit. What a range.
  21. cptcatz
    No it's not, lil homie.
  22. cptcatz
    Agreed. That's a nice little pop of deep convection right next to the center while it looks like the convection to the southwest is fading away. Fiona did the same thing and ended up keeping its LLC. Wouldn't be surprised to see the southern Florida landfall like Icon is showing.
  23. cptcatz
    It's nice to give him the benefit of the doubt but that makes no sense since he specifically said anywhere in Florida, plus this storm is coming from the Gulf side so if that's what he meant it doesn't apply to what we're dealing with here lol
  24. cptcatz
    Is it? Off the top of my head in the last 20 years there were Ivan, Charley, Jeanne, Wilma, Michael, and Irma all landfalling as majors in Florida.
  25. cptcatz
    Four cyclones now in the basin. Anything from ldub? Race is on between 9 and 10 for Hermine and Ian.
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