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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    The means, the means for the CMC, Euro, and GFS ensembles for the TN valley river systems are from 4.5 - 6.5 inches. I think flamingo man riding his floaty in front of the fellini Kroger was pretty much peak flood action in Knoxvegas in 2019. I think I was looking at the means that far out that year, so I'm going to go dredge up those posts and see how that looked. But lordy the 6z GFS gave me flashbacks with where the firehose was aimed. And it wasn't at fantasy range:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z GFS: 6z GFS 0z CMC (only to 240): 0z Euro (only to 240):
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 18z GFS has reached new levels of flooding:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    We'd be worrying not about ground temperatures, but about the snow sticking to the flood waters: All this precip is before the snow starts.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Might as well show the snow map, just in case the GFS is having one of it's moments of long range clarity:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I was just about to say that was kind of a weenie GFS run if I ever saw one.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    @John1122 Happy times
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah if it happened in early March no one in this area would likely see the effects for at least 3 weeks, but I figured I'd throw it out there since it has been so strong this winter. But if it can promote some late March blocking in the AO and NAO areas, it might help keep any dynamic upper lows south of us.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS has ben showing some strat. warming at the pole pretty consistently at the end of its run, for the past few cycles. More than I've seen so far this year when I've paid attention to it. If it can hold for a few more days it might have some legs.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is it really a flood threat until janetjanet starts posting here? But yeah, the past several runs of the GFS have been showing someone getting 5"+ between the Ohio Valley and us. So far most of those runs favor the OH Valley. The EPS mean is up to around 3.5 - 4" across most of the state. I'd say 25% of the members get us over 5 - 6" and one member gives ye olden "get your waterwings and floating flamingos ready" amounts of 8 - 11 inches over eastern parts of TN. Hopefully the CFS is right and we get a break by early - mid March from this pattern that seems to be setting up. It seems to me to be like the pattern we've had, in the sense that the northern stream kept throwing energy at the Gulf, but it just never synced up with southern waves. So there were a bunch of chances for something big, but it never pulled it off. This new pattern looks like it will keep throwing energy at us in ways that would be conducive to flooding, but hopefully it doesn't sync everything up just right.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just woke up to get a glass of water and I have a dusting on elevated surfaces.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    So de we think much of this will hold together? Looks like High Knob is at least going to get a couple of inches tonight. HRRR tries to kill it off, but I don't think that will happen. Now it may not make it to teh ground, but I think the radar returns will hold together: Notice (Tri Cities folks) that there is also some weird 181 or 26 or whatever it is now band that shows up. It literally looks like it starts as some lift over the Eastman Bubble and then follows someone to JC. I'll be asleep, but will be interested to see if that verifies on radar overnight. maybe it is the ultra rare Bays Mountain point leeside low? JiC index may be in its COD, but it is still in the good phases 8/1 and we also we have the all important No One Cares Anymore (NOCA) index going for this to overperform tonight. Level of public and even weenie interest in any given event are like the SOI. We've dropped to -31.23 for this event.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sleet in Oneida/ Big South Fork area.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    TIMS extended range model is running:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    That is the time frame for the GFS's big Chatt system from the 12z Feb 5 run.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was a model we invented (Thunder In the Mountains) based on the old saying that thunder in the mountains in winter means snow soon.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z NAM
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    @John1122 I'm adding the JiC (John in Chatt) to be like the MJO, that is if John knows the general weeks he has to go to Chatt each winter. We can even create plots. Current conditions
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    But the 18z GFS hates everyone but TRI and wants us to die
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it had a better interaction with the secondary N. stream piece (blue circle), than it has had in previous runs, but yeah, still too positively tilted with the main vort to the south.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know that we had a storm thread for it (maybe I missed it) but the obs for this start on page 12:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the radar from the top CIPS analogue: and the H5/ MSLP pattern: Honestly the radar doesn't look too different from what some of the models have been spitting out. 12z RGEM at 60 hours:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the top CIPS analogues out to hour 60 based on the 12z NAM (I wish that CIPS site gave analogues based off the RGEM, lol): site: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F060&rundt=2022020912&map=COOP2perc
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z RGEM looked interesting.: No clue where that would have gone, but it is quite a bit different from the NAM: 6z GFS that John posted looked more like the RGEM, which seems odd to me since I think the NAMs are closer akin to the GFS wrt their physics.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we end up with ye olden suppressed solution from last week (below is la la land GFS run from 12z Feb 1): I've started saving the nice runs at day 15, after what happened earlier in the month. Compare the above to what you mentioned, now under 10 days out: And to be fair, this is what this weekend's (now seeming suppressed) storm looked like at in GFS la la land: :
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