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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Probably won't be too painful. It's the Euro after all. Now if the reliable GFS was showing ice......
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro marches snow and ice across the state later next week: 1040ish High over the Lakes.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye olden -EPO/ -AO: This after a nice overrunning event. The overrunning event will lock in to a cutter in approximately 5 days.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I probably matched my totals from the last storm. Around 2.5 here, when measured in the shadiest and most elevated surfaces, as is the custom. Kind of an eerie crescent moon rising over the valley to the southeast with light snow falling.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's good, we need multiple models, if we can get a couple more we'll throw together an east TN ensemble!
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    It looks to me like someone near Farragut will get more than me with that band.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    It really was. I had kinda just "turned off" so to speak from watching it and just tuned out. Looked out and there was already half an inch. I'd say I'm at just barely under and inch now, and all from that one band now moving off the plateau
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully this band holds together as it comes off the plateau. I wasn't really paying attention but I feel like I've almost up to an inch now in just half an hour.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Decided to watch some TV while waiting on the band to come through. It is absolutely pouring snow here now. I bet it would nearly be a whiteout if it were daylight (it actually got harder after this video).
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting close to moderate now. Would be interested in Oak Ridge obs in about half an hour.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’d say I’m at “light snow” level now. Pretty small flakes though.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally spitting a few flurries here in southern Morgan
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    WBIR just showed a pic of Oliver Springs. Looks like they have half an inch on the ground. Nada here just a few miles NW. Apparently that band is producing.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS with ye olden 1060 high in South Dakota at hour 360. Nice mild temps under there too:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright, everybody needs to be on their A game for TIMs model obs today. HRRR showing some CAPE and lightning flashes. We gotta recharge the TIMs model as much as possible before next weekend. I don't think it counts if we just see it on GOES-16 derived flashes. HRRR lightning flash density 0-3km CAPE:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    A pretty good radar return just north west of me, we'll see if it any of it reaches the ground when it gets here
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    For your model watching pleasure, Tropical Tidbits had some kind of an overhaul last night and now has extra hours and a bunch of extra parameters for the Euro.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I have a good memory for one from Jan. 1994, I think. Only one I can remember off the top of my head. I came through just after dark and I remember what you describe on my back deck in Kingsport. I don't remember the exact date, but the experience.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z 3k NAM actually had what looked to me like an arctic front producing snow as it crossed TN between hour 40 and 50.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour GFS run from Jan 19, for Feb 2 - 4: 12z Euro for Feb 2 - 4, lol: Thankfully no apocalyptic totals though:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hate to say this, but once the next storm cuts, I kinda think we're going to back to watching to see if the shortwave can kick out of the southwest again. If it does in time, somebody gets some snow, if not, cutters gonna cut. If it had kicked out more at 12z, we'd be back to a snow after, but as it played out, we had to wait until the next cutter to pull through. IMO all that depends on the strength and position of the ridge off or on the west coast. A couple of pattern obs. though. 1) Big bomb storm could do some oddball temporary blocking and 2) at least the shortwaves that get stuck in the southwest aren't getting sheared out like they are now, regardless of when they eject.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll add one more thing. As cynical as I am right now, the fact that we are in a Nina (seems like an actual Nina this winter) and it it looks like the pattern can't quite decide what it wants to do in February is probably a good thing.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll take the easy way out and say maybe its some sort of combo of what we had in December and now. We kind of have that this weekend with the Aleutians ridge and a PNA ridge. The PNA is rolling forward as it breaks down and the Aleutian is trying to build back in: So let's put this into motion, as the weather folks say: and the Euro: Watch where the waves break; sometimes over the Aleutians and sometimes closer to the Gulf of Alaska. When it is closer to the Gulf of Alaska, the downstream trough takes a more favorable track for the TN valley. When it is closer to he Aleutians, you get a variety of cutters. These wave breaks are modulated by the jet, which is modulated, in part, by tropical forcing. Blocking can modulate the trough and ridge axes as well, but that seems to be hard to come by in the NAO region since December. So the jet it is for now. Euro: GFS: So we want an upper level Aleutian low to cause the waves to break near Hawaii. When it is near the Okhotsk Sea/ Kamchatka, the waves break too far west. So watching these animations, it looks to me like the pattern kinda wants to do both lol. I guess this is what they mean by mixed signals, lol. MJO signals are mixed. BOM and Euro want to mess around in the COD, suggesting the mixed signal above, while the GFS wants to do that for a bit, it finally kicks it out into the dreaded phase 4, but the GFS only goes out so far. The BOM shows something similar, but rolls it back to around 7/8 by late February. I mean, to be honest, I think you probably summed it up a lot more succinctly than my mess above, now that I think about it. Bottom line looks like we are going to have to just time a wave along a front just right. But it does kind of seem like a mix of the two patterns we've seen this winter, to me.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z NAM, just looking at the southwest shortwave, looks like it is holding back quite a bit of energy as compared to the its 18z run and the 6z Euro looks like it is holding back more than 0z (but not much). GFS is holding back a tick more than 0z. So are we tied now wrt this weekend? GFS 1, Euro 1? HRRR is going to have tun a 2 point conversion for someone.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mean, still not quite where we in east TN want it, but looking better.
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