Albedoman

I sure would like to know who is calling 60% chances of rain at Mt Holly? 20% would much more accurate. No more than 20% of the FWA have precip any any given time lately. When the public sees 60%, they start canceling outdoor events. Hitting 90 degrees for three days in a row is not being accurate as well. These short range models in this current pattern absolutely suck. Shortwaves also do not mean uniform precip coverage.

well, here it comes- first closing because of high Bacterial counts in our area from the first flush of these intense downpours like I said a few days ago. More will be coming: https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/news/2023/07/beltzville-lake-closes-to-swimming-following-high-bacterial-counts.html By the way, another major sinkhole a mile from my house https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/sinkhole-opens-behind-home-in-macungie/article_820c630c-1ff2-11ee-9973-47ea2197cdce.html#tncms-source=More-from-newsroom-(right-column)

by the way, I received 2.85 in of rain for todays event. Very productive

Yes they are up but they will come down quickly. I would like to see lighter thundershowers over several days in the course of the next week. These drenching downpours will help the corn and and soybeans and green up yards but we need long duration rainfalls to get the rain into the ground. A few 90 degree days this week will make this storm a distant memory. This storm was a million dollar rain for farmers. If we have several 90 degree days, the corn will be head high by next week. This storm event also really helped the trout population environment as thermal pollution was nonexistent today with the cooler water runoff temps. The downside is that in the waters such as Lake Ontalunee and Blue Marsh Lake in Berks County, I am betting huge algae blooms and high bacteria counts in the upcoming days which may curtail water recreational activity over the next five days or so as this warmer warmers just received a huge flush of runoff and bacteria followed by much warmer temps. watch the media

basically just enough to get the street wet. Cooled down but made it more muggy here in Macungie. Was at 93 down to 81 now. The debris clouds from these pop up showers make things worse and stifle redevelopment of t- storms for the rest of the afternoon. Can never get a full fledged heavy rain event unless the storm dies out right over you as fast as it forms. God, I miss training t- storms. Have not seen a good training t- storm in years

let me know the results please. Thanks

do you have a a heat pump system? If so , it sounds like the defrost board or the reversing valve maybe screwed up. The other issue in this high humidity is that the compressor maybe screwed up too if they never charged the unit with enough coolant when they installed it. Low coolant pressure can give you the appearance that the unit is working as the more you turn down the thermostat, the warmer it gets in the house as the air never really cools.

Wow, first decent t-storm since April. Real good squall line coming through with lots of heavy rain. Quakertown and points south should be in the mix too. My garden will love this. This rain event is helpful but not a drought buster.

as an official spotter for 30 years, I saw very little rotation with the tornado warned t -storm that is quickly fading. In fact, just enough sprinkles was the only thing produced in Lower Macungie with a brief downdraft as the storm was clearly localized (rain across the street but not at your house episode). Scud clouds gave the appearance of some rotation at the base of the storm. Major disappointment with the rainfall. Sprinkles and that was it. I am sure someone in Fogelsville and western Allentown got a quick downpour of an .25 in. or little more as we really need training t- storms. 70 percent chance of rainfall in the forecast has been a real misnomer as the areal coverage has been more like 30% or less. I see better chances of afternoon t storms in TN than I have seen here with 70-80% chances being predicted. The models absolutely suck in a Canada in dominated high pressure pattern. If I was Mt Holly, I would predict nothing more than 30% of rain in the forecast until the pattern changes or we get a cold front that means business.

CoolhandMIke you are spot on with above statement. That is another reason why I believe you and I are right in our thinking and why I made such a bold statement. Others will be making such statement soon in the media. The combination of significant volcanic ash and dust dispersal, wild fire smoke and a constant three years of a la nina pattern cannot be ignored. I distinctly remember the Mt Pinatubo eruption(as I am physical geographer and geologist) in 1991 and what happened the following years from the result of the ash ejected into the stratosphere. The winter of 93-94 was cold and wintry that's for sure for our area. The effects of the 1991 eruption were felt worldwide. The volcano ejected more particulate into the stratosphere than any eruption since Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) in the years 1991–1993,[9] and ozone depletion temporarily saw a substantial increase. The climatic results took two years from Mt Pinatubo in the southern hemisphere to reach the northern hemisphere weather and wind patterns. I also believe the effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption will arrive this winter since it is further from the northern hemisphere than is Mt Pinatubo and by January, we will see clear evidence of how the combination of ash, smoke and dust effect our local climate. To many idiotic climate activists rely on greenhouse gasses to make wild predictions when the real issue is dust, smoke and ash being ejected into our atmosphere. You all saw first hand what wildfire smoke can do to our atmosphere in our region by bringing down temps the last few weeks. Now imagine that higher up in the atmosphere with ash and dust from volcanoes too. These greenhouse climate people need to go back to school and learn about the albedo effect in our atmosphere.

its the winter of 2003 with presidents day noreaster plus others in December of 2002 that I am talking about.

I am going to emphatically state tonight and please mark this post. The Canadian wild fires have emitted so much smoke now in the northern hemisphere that this winter in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will exhibit record cold snaps and perhaps above average snowfall for some areas. The dominating HP over southern Canada which is preventing the Bermuda High from taking over this summer will relax every now and then during the summer but will continue its dominance over our weather patterns until the pattern reloads with el nino pattern becoming dominate. in mid to late winter. Below average monthly temps will continue into the foreseeable future. As the el nino returns with an easterly pattern, nor'easters will become the talk of the town in December. This year reminds me a lot of 2002 winter season coming off a major a drought into an developing el nino pattern. we had some good nor'easters that year. The smoke will help keep temp down.

enough to get my deck wet. Hopefully more after midnight

Total thus far is .75 in of rain today in western lehigh county. Not a drought buster but better than nothing. The garden and lawns are loving it but the streams will rise for a few hours and then drop again. The ground is no where near saturation thats for sure. Another round incoming, maybe this can round can put me over an inch of precip for today.

.45 in of rain total from the last two days, including the 10 minute downpour this morning. Its a start. Need that sun to come out in the next few hours to provide the juice now.

wow, I hear the thunder as the the skies are beginning to darken in the southwest just as as the debris clouds were beginning to thin out here - just maybe a quick downpour as the radar is starting to light up in eastern Berks County. If this current scenario is any indication this morning, those areas where the sun gets out in the afternoon - big time training t- storms and severe potential will be popping.

less than .10 in the gauge overnight. Rumbles of thunder- nothing more. Not a good day to start off for producing rain- no sunshine and cloudy from this early mornings showers. Have got to get the sun out out like in VA in the last hour satellite image below. Yesterday, the debris clouds from surrounding t- storms in south eastern PA and in the Poconos absolutely killed any chance of training t- storms in the LV. This morning is looking the same as yesterday afternoon. Very localized t- storms popping up where the sun is trying to peek out on the current radar.

here we go again. Chester county into Philly metro getting more heavy rain right now at 11:20 pm Unbelievable. that same area has received more rain in the last two weeks than the LV has received in over three months. The sinking air lid is over the LV even at night now. The line of t-storms west of Harrisburg is also fizzling out. The forecast has literally stated that the LV was to expect by the end of the weekend 2-3 in of rain. I have had less than .25 of precip in this same time period. Localized t- storms do not help in a long term drought situation.- it just makes it more frustrating.

flat out zilch from western Lehigh county to Lebanon Countym, especially along I -78 corridor. The area has been one huge wall of nothing the last 3 days.

wow. Forecast for 1-2 in of training thundershowers Monday night. Hey, Mt Holly, I am ready for another bust. I guess they believe what the Euro and CMC has been spitting out. The NAM/RGEM is however getting close to what the the globals are telling them but we have burned too many times in the past 90 days on even SR model accuracy. The one thing I am ecstatic about is the fact this morning is the first morning in 30+ days that the sun was out after 7am with absolutely no smoke/haze evidence in the air after the early morning fog burned off-. Crystal blue skies at 8 am . Its nice to breathe again

the sun cam out but every cotton picking t-cell was northeast of the LV into the Poconos or were SE near Philly. I say give it up Mt Holly. I have had only one t storm in three months at my house and it was only 20 minutes long- back in April. The lid is on for convectivity over the LV in the foreseeable future. These .15 rain showers at night are keeping the lawns green but the Little Lehigh streamflow in my backyard is the lowest I have seen in over 20 years. You cannot keep ignoring hydraulic stream flows in your discussions.

this is the biggest bust of the year IMHO. We were supposed to get 1.5 in of rain by midnight. I got .19" in my gauge in Macungie. This was not even close to what was forecasted. Tonights radar looks absolutely pathetic. The 60- 80% chance of heavy rain should have been forecasted to 20-30%. Philly metro area is getting dumped on the last two weeks, high and dry north of the South Mtn range. I expect nothing more than hit and miss showers the next five days. This pesky low- shortwave is not a drought buster- just a lawn greener. many residential wells in the LV and toward Harrisburg will be be going dry in the next few weeks. A drought warning and emergency should be issued by PADEP by Tuesday if we do NOT get some really significant rains this weekend and I mean real back to back gully washers. The sun did not come out at all today and without the convective nature with the sun daytime heating, we are destined to light rain showers and drizzle for the next five days.

I could take a leak more than what has fallen thus far. All these spotty showers are doing is simply washing the pollen off the cars. We need significant rain to infiltrate the ground and I mean inches of rain not a .5 inch here or there. The Euro saying 5 in-- it has not been right for the six months on any precip event. This winter was pathetic with this LR model. No LR range model has produced. We must rely on 48 hour models until this stubborn Canadian HP system moves the hell out of the way. This current dominating Canadian pattern has really screwed up the reliability and accuracy of LR models since last December. Time for recalibrating these models since the current pattern last existed in the 60's- 70's

no suicides but farmers will not be happy. Lucky it going to be cool- great way to green up the yard without weed proliferation.. The rains over the weekend maybe beneficial however if it rains everyday. The corn is still has sprouted but way too small. It should be knee high by now.