Albedoman

My first call -- lots of southern sliders as the PV has to lock in early over the upper midwest in late November for us to see some "Big Daddy's" Lots of rain to sleet to snow storms and us being on the cusp on every storm event for precip types until early January. If one cold PV system locks up in mid December- game on. Actually the major game changer for this winter is a tropical system in late October for our area which can quickly rearrange the flow of frontal systems and change our weather pattern. I have seen it a bunch of times. The key will be how strong the tropical system will be and how it will help pull down colder air when it departs. Then the new pattern sets up for the next 30-60 days. The deeper the tropical system, more colder air dumps in behind the system.

omg Wake up Wednesday morning and you can almost see your breath at near 50 degrees. Cannot wait. The grass will love it as soil temps drop a few degrees too.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/pjm-interconnection-heat-alerts-us-power Basically it is a warning to the generators(suppliers) in the PJM electrical system to be online as demand will peak by Saturday evening. They maybe fined if they are not online. Key- everyone needs to reduce their energy needs. Weekend should help as many people will be involved in outdoor activities. Media blowing it oout of proportion. I worked with PJM in Lower Providence and Milford Township facilities. Their grid system is unbelievable and they are located in concrete harden bunkers literally 50- 100 ft underground with giant computer screens controlling every power switching station . They are the guys that saved PA from the 20013 NE blackout from hitting our area. https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/pjm-interconnection-heat-alerts-us-power https://insidelines.pjm.com/fifteen-years-since-northeast-blackout-reliability-remains-top-pjm-priority/

add that to your 13 inches of rain for the month. Zilco here and parts of my area are still in a PADEP drought watch as the media reported.

no t-showers on the radar within 200 miles of here. Please someone tell me how a 50% chance of t storms with a potential of severe suddenly pops up in the next few hours. C'mon man.

well the drought guy has not had much rain in the past week. Less than .50 in. Everything blooming is to the southeast or northeast of western Lehigh county. Did see some t showers at noon but it was too early in the day for any significant rain. These storms appear to grow in the western burbs of Philly and go full board by the time they hit eastern NJ. Its been that way for weeks on end. Last night by the time the t- storms hit the Blue Mts from Harrisburg, they were just light showers when they hit my area.

.45 in with afternoon thunderstorm- typical afternoon garden variety but no hail or wind gusts over 20 mph. Already going NE into Allentown and Bethlehem. Sun coming out

I sure would like to know who is calling 60% chances of rain at Mt Holly? 20% would much more accurate. No more than 20% of the FWA have precip any any given time lately. When the public sees 60%, they start canceling outdoor events. Hitting 90 degrees for three days in a row is not being accurate as well. These short range models in this current pattern absolutely suck. Shortwaves also do not mean uniform precip coverage.

well, here it comes- first closing because of high Bacterial counts in our area from the first flush of these intense downpours like I said a few days ago. More will be coming: https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/news/2023/07/beltzville-lake-closes-to-swimming-following-high-bacterial-counts.html By the way, another major sinkhole a mile from my house https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/sinkhole-opens-behind-home-in-macungie/article_820c630c-1ff2-11ee-9973-47ea2197cdce.html#tncms-source=More-from-newsroom-(right-column)

by the way, I received 2.85 in of rain for todays event. Very productive

Yes they are up but they will come down quickly. I would like to see lighter thundershowers over several days in the course of the next week. These drenching downpours will help the corn and and soybeans and green up yards but we need long duration rainfalls to get the rain into the ground. A few 90 degree days this week will make this storm a distant memory. This storm was a million dollar rain for farmers. If we have several 90 degree days, the corn will be head high by next week. This storm event also really helped the trout population environment as thermal pollution was nonexistent today with the cooler water runoff temps. The downside is that in the waters such as Lake Ontalunee and Blue Marsh Lake in Berks County, I am betting huge algae blooms and high bacteria counts in the upcoming days which may curtail water recreational activity over the next five days or so as this warmer warmers just received a huge flush of runoff and bacteria followed by much warmer temps. watch the media

basically just enough to get the street wet. Cooled down but made it more muggy here in Macungie. Was at 93 down to 81 now. The debris clouds from these pop up showers make things worse and stifle redevelopment of t- storms for the rest of the afternoon. Can never get a full fledged heavy rain event unless the storm dies out right over you as fast as it forms. God, I miss training t- storms. Have not seen a good training t- storm in years

let me know the results please. Thanks

do you have a a heat pump system? If so , it sounds like the defrost board or the reversing valve maybe screwed up. The other issue in this high humidity is that the compressor maybe screwed up too if they never charged the unit with enough coolant when they installed it. Low coolant pressure can give you the appearance that the unit is working as the more you turn down the thermostat, the warmer it gets in the house as the air never really cools.

Wow, first decent t-storm since April. Real good squall line coming through with lots of heavy rain. Quakertown and points south should be in the mix too. My garden will love this. This rain event is helpful but not a drought buster.

as an official spotter for 30 years, I saw very little rotation with the tornado warned t -storm that is quickly fading. In fact, just enough sprinkles was the only thing produced in Lower Macungie with a brief downdraft as the storm was clearly localized (rain across the street but not at your house episode). Scud clouds gave the appearance of some rotation at the base of the storm. Major disappointment with the rainfall. Sprinkles and that was it. I am sure someone in Fogelsville and western Allentown got a quick downpour of an .25 in. or little more as we really need training t- storms. 70 percent chance of rainfall in the forecast has been a real misnomer as the areal coverage has been more like 30% or less. I see better chances of afternoon t storms in TN than I have seen here with 70-80% chances being predicted. The models absolutely suck in a Canada in dominated high pressure pattern. If I was Mt Holly, I would predict nothing more than 30% of rain in the forecast until the pattern changes or we get a cold front that means business.

CoolhandMIke you are spot on with above statement. That is another reason why I believe you and I are right in our thinking and why I made such a bold statement. Others will be making such statement soon in the media. The combination of significant volcanic ash and dust dispersal, wild fire smoke and a constant three years of a la nina pattern cannot be ignored. I distinctly remember the Mt Pinatubo eruption(as I am physical geographer and geologist) in 1991 and what happened the following years from the result of the ash ejected into the stratosphere. The winter of 93-94 was cold and wintry that's for sure for our area. The effects of the 1991 eruption were felt worldwide. The volcano ejected more particulate into the stratosphere than any eruption since Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) in the years 1991–1993,[9] and ozone depletion temporarily saw a substantial increase. The climatic results took two years from Mt Pinatubo in the southern hemisphere to reach the northern hemisphere weather and wind patterns. I also believe the effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption will arrive this winter since it is further from the northern hemisphere than is Mt Pinatubo and by January, we will see clear evidence of how the combination of ash, smoke and dust effect our local climate. To many idiotic climate activists rely on greenhouse gasses to make wild predictions when the real issue is dust, smoke and ash being ejected into our atmosphere. You all saw first hand what wildfire smoke can do to our atmosphere in our region by bringing down temps the last few weeks. Now imagine that higher up in the atmosphere with ash and dust from volcanoes too. These greenhouse climate people need to go back to school and learn about the albedo effect in our atmosphere.

its the winter of 2003 with presidents day noreaster plus others in December of 2002 that I am talking about.

I am going to emphatically state tonight and please mark this post. The Canadian wild fires have emitted so much smoke now in the northern hemisphere that this winter in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will exhibit record cold snaps and perhaps above average snowfall for some areas. The dominating HP over southern Canada which is preventing the Bermuda High from taking over this summer will relax every now and then during the summer but will continue its dominance over our weather patterns until the pattern reloads with el nino pattern becoming dominate. in mid to late winter. Below average monthly temps will continue into the foreseeable future. As the el nino returns with an easterly pattern, nor'easters will become the talk of the town in December. This year reminds me a lot of 2002 winter season coming off a major a drought into an developing el nino pattern. we had some good nor'easters that year. The smoke will help keep temp down.

enough to get my deck wet. Hopefully more after midnight

Total thus far is .75 in of rain today in western lehigh county. Not a drought buster but better than nothing. The garden and lawns are loving it but the streams will rise for a few hours and then drop again. The ground is no where near saturation thats for sure. Another round incoming, maybe this can round can put me over an inch of precip for today.

.45 in of rain total from the last two days, including the 10 minute downpour this morning. Its a start. Need that sun to come out in the next few hours to provide the juice now.

wow, I hear the thunder as the the skies are beginning to darken in the southwest just as as the debris clouds were beginning to thin out here - just maybe a quick downpour as the radar is starting to light up in eastern Berks County. If this current scenario is any indication this morning, those areas where the sun gets out in the afternoon - big time training t- storms and severe potential will be popping.

less than .10 in the gauge overnight. Rumbles of thunder- nothing more. Not a good day to start off for producing rain- no sunshine and cloudy from this early mornings showers. Have got to get the sun out out like in VA in the last hour satellite image below. Yesterday, the debris clouds from surrounding t- storms in south eastern PA and in the Poconos absolutely killed any chance of training t- storms in the LV. This morning is looking the same as yesterday afternoon. Very localized t- storms popping up where the sun is trying to peek out on the current radar.