Albedoman

for those who are dejected and wishing to cancel winter based on the latest model runs do not fret ---- I am an historical meteorologist . You may ask what the hell is that? I rely on my personal weather pattern experiences over the last 50 years since I have been old enough to enjoy the knowledge of weather since I was 12 years old. I learned much weather from uncle who was the regional head forecasting meteorologist for NOAA (NWS) in the western US. I also was an air traffic controller in the Navy and graduated with a BS physical geography degree with a concentration in atmospheric science(Before many meteorological schools were even around). I do not rely solely LR daily model runs until the storms are within 48-72 hours period. Anything else is simply conjecture. I only rely on LR models to help establish the future temp/precip ranges and the possibilities of changes in the long term weather patterns. That is it. I was using my personal experiences and senses in the early 70's to 80's when there were no daily 8 hour model runs and the only models were spit out in a past weekly bulletin on the weeks previous storm events. I spent more time analyzing the storm patterns such as neutral, el nino and la nina patterns instead of relying just on LR computer model ensembles. Weather has been boiled down to a simple game of statistical chances by using computer model ensembles. Right or wrong, I side with past history Right now I see nothing but cold polar air bottled up in northern Canada with pacific cold fronts flowing zonally across the country Alberta Canada is where we get our cold air from except for an occasional backdoor cold front. There is nada coming from either direction right now. The southern jet stream is buckling but the northern stream will not come down into mid USA period to phase and deepen the lows. Until we get an LP over Alberta forming a clipper bringing that locked up polar air in Canada to the central US and introducing a potential pattern change, there is nothing we can do but watch models kick the potential 3-6 in snow events further into the 10-15 day time frame. WE must have sustainable cold- WE HAVE NONE. The potential of a 2-4 or 3-6 in snow event keeps showing up during the Jan 9-11 time frame but that is all it is. When I see it show up on the NAM at 36 hours- thats doable IMHO. My past personal history for those who believe in what I do, compares this year to 1993 where we had a crappy el nino winter 2-4 inches of snow until late February where we did get some accumulating snow event followed by the March superstorm which was a triple phaser. The el nino years below in a sample ranking chart . Please note 1958 has been thrown in the rankings for your forum too in February. (Morgantown blizzard) The winters are definitely back loaded for heavy snow sure in these years with some cold. It is just that we usually get cold sustainable cold in neutral years from the passage of continuous clippers as the el nino pattern is dying-- last gasp storm event before going into a neutral year. Remember how the severe cold in early 1994 set in that was attributable from weakening neutral year with the combination of MT Pinatubo eruption? We have not had a neutral winter in a long time. 3+ years. Lets see what the second to third week of January can throw at us? Ranked El Niño Events by 3-Month Season Rank DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 1 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 2 1998 1998 1998 1998 1992 1983 1987 1987 1987 1982 1982 1982 3 1973 1992 1992 1992 1998 1992 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 4 1931 1931 1931 1987 1987 1987 1983 1982 1982 1987 1902 1930 5 1992 1973 1987 1941 1941 1941 1905 1905 1905 1902 1930 1965 6 1966 1919 1941 1931 1993 1993 1982 1902 1965 1930 1987 1902 7 1919 1987 1926 1926 1900 1900 1902 1965 1902 1965 1941* 1991 8 1926 1941 1958 1993 1997 1905 1941 1957 1930 1941 1965* 1941

for those who are dejected and wishing to cancel winter based on the latest model runs do not fret ---- I am an historical meteorologist . You may ask what the hell is that? I rely on my personal weather pattern experiences over the last 50 years since I have been old enough to enjoy the knowledge of weather since I was 12 years old. I learned much weather from uncle who was the regional head forecasting meteorologist for NOAA (NWS) in the western US. I also was an air traffic controller in the Navy and graduated with a BS physical geography degree with a concentration in atmospheric science(Before many meteorological schools were even around). I do not rely solely LR daily model runs until the storms are within 48-72 hours period. Anything else is simply conjecture. I only rely on LR models to help establish the future temp/precip ranges and the possibilities of changes in the long term weather patterns. That is it. I was using my personal experiences and senses in the early 70's to 80's when there were no daily 8 hour model runs and the only models were spit out in a past weekly bulletin on the weeks previous storm events. I spent more time analyzing the storm patterns such as neutral, el nino and la nina patterns instead of relying just on LR computer model ensembles. Weather has been boiled down to a simple game of statistical chances by using computer model ensembles. Right or wrong, I side with past history Right now I see nothing but cold polar air bottled up in northern Canada with pacific cold fronts flowing zonally across the country Alberta Canada is where we get our cold air from except for an occasional backdoor cold front. There is nada coming from either direction right now. The southern jet stream is buckling but the northern stream will not come down into mid USA period to phase and deepen the lows. Until we get an LP over Alberta forming a clipper bringing that locked up polar air in Canada to the central US and introducing a potential pattern change, there is nothing we can do but watch models kick the potential 3-6 in snow events further into the 10-15 day time frame. WE must have sustainable cold- WE HAVE NONE. The potential of a 2-4 or 3-6 in snow event keeps showing up during the Jan 9-11 time frame but that is all it is. When I see it show up on the NAM at 36 hours- thats doable IMHO. My past personal history for those who believe in what I do, compares this year to 1993 where we had a crappy el nino winter 2-4 inches of snow until late February where we di get some accumalting snow event followed by the March superstorm which was a triple phaser. The el nino years below in a sample ranking chart . Please note 1958 has been thrown in the rankings for your forum too in February. (Morgantown blizzard) The winters are definitely back loaded for heavy snow sure in these years with some cold. It is just that we usually get cold sustainable cold in neutral years from the passage of continuous clippers as the el nino pattern is dying-- last gasp storm event before going into a neutral year. Remember how the severe cold in early 1994 set in that was attributable from weakening neutral year with the combination of MT Pinatubo eruption? We have not had a neutral winter in a long time. 3+ years. Lets see what the second to third week of January can throw at us? Ranked El Niño Events by 3-Month Season Rank DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 1 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 2 1998 1998 1998 1998 1992 1983 1987 1987 1987 1982 1982 1982 3 1973 1992 1992 1992 1998 1992 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 4 1931 1931 1931 1987 1987 1987 1983 1982 1982 1987 1902 1930 5 1992 1973 1987 1941 1941 1941 1905 1905 1905 1902 1930 1965 6 1966 1919 1941 1931 1993 1993 1982 1902 1965 1930 1987 1902 7 1919 1987 1926 1926 1900 1900 1902 1965 1902 1965 1941* 1991 8 1926 1941 1958 1993 1997 1905 1941 1957 1930 1941 1965* 1941

Yes I have punted until about third week in January for a major snow event of 6+ inches for our area . The event on Jan 9-12 looks legitimate at this time if there is enough cold air in place over our area from a typical pacific cold frontal passage in place (ana frontal snow?) after a couple of days with an LP forming on the dragging cold front near the carolinas and is definitely not an alberta clipper that I was talking about. Any snow that accumulates will only be on the ground for a few days anyway but this could be a considered a legitimate snow event threat based based on the lack of snowfall in the last two years. We could see more snow from this single event than we got all last year so yes, I agree Ralph this potential snowfall event is is a threat no matter how little the accumulations are. 2-4 inches at the best as my first call if the event occurs.

wow, the record for rainfall in December for ABE is 7.89 inches in 1973. We should break the record by the end of the week. In Macungie I have had over 7.5 inches thus far this month with 2 to 3 inches expected by the end of the week. No drought here, thats for sure. The nasty part is that the groundwater table will be much higher than usual as the precip has been able to infiltrate into the ground with the ground remaining unfrozen. 1. Any runoff after one inch will be 100% runoff as the ground cannot take much more. Localized flooding will be a HUGE concern, especially in low spots such as closed depressions in our Karst geological areas with many ghost lakes appearing in farm fields and over roads 2. Sinkholes will be opening up everywhere. Here is one near my house in the Macungie area next to the road last week below from the the four plus inch rainfall event. The eye of the sinkhole went under the road 3. Flat road areas will pond water easily and freeze over. 4. Winter Springs will be popping up everywhere, leading to heavy ice accumulations on roads where underdrains are not located. Be careful. Literally dump truck loads of salt will be poured in these areas where the springs come up even in the middle of the roads as water will be flowing for weeks. One particular bad spot RT 63 in near Rt 563 near the ridge top will be bad with numerous potholes forming in the shale geology 5. Basements will have some major water issues thats for sure with sump pumps running full time.

I would love to be wrong but even a legit threat has no staying power. It will be gone in afew days. We have to have highs stay below the mid 20,s with no sun. No polar air anywhere

1. Cold air is in Northern Canada- locked uped for a while 2. Only a deep Alberta clipper will move out eh warm humid air now. When it comes is anyone's guess. When does come, watch out for major EC snowstorm following the passage 3. I agree. Thats why the upper midwest is baking right now 4. see statement two answer- a HECS event coming if the clipper hits us first 5. This our normal until the third week in January- thats when the pacific tuna fish can lid will be opened and the pac air goes bye bye to the far south - back into the GOM. Some say I am dead wrong- let the old timer prove them wrong. You can keep looking at those ensembles and analyze until the cows come home but the pattern will not change until we get a decent clipper passing over us period. From the historical weather forecaster we are a raity in this AI technology.

this proves my point too https://www.exploreminnesota.com/event/minnesota-ice-festival-cancelled/26711

threats are all they are. What will change for us to get some legit snowstorms on the models? An Alberta clipper making a run at us even if it is dry followed by an LP forming in the TN valley. The clipper is the key as it will bring us the sustainable cold and keep the northern jet further south in the lower TN Valley for shortwaves to form on it, especially with GOM moisture flowing into the shortwaves. I have yet to see anything of the sort on the LR models. Shortwaves are forming on the northern jet, they are simply moisture starved and the zonal flow is constant across the country. My old time philosophy- when it is below zero and snow covered in wisconsin, watch out baby. Currently it is even raining all the way up to St Paul area with no snow cover in almost the entire state of Wisconsin. That is basically unheard of this time of the year as I lived there for many years. There is simply no cold air in place to keep the snow cover in the upper midwest. Snow cover begets more cold air reaching our area. Without it, we stand little chance of a major snow event. Ensembles mean exactly crap IMHO right now until something significantly breaks in this zonal pattern In the 60's and 70's we did not use computer ensembles especially as gospel, we simply use statistical analysis and still use them somewhat in the days from the weather yearly analogs. Keep relying on your ensembles, I will rely my 40 + years of experience. I cannot wait until an Alberta Clipper reaches the mid Atlantic area- then the LR range and SR range models will light up like a Christmas tree with legit chances.

no one will care after this holiday season believe me. The stream in my backyard is still running high from two weeks of nearly 8 inches of rain. Continuous cloudy days is not good for our utility bills or our mood.

its one thing not having snow but it is another not seeing one sunny day in over a week this winter. This is the ultimate crappy Christmas week. How can you be happy when it is not even below freezing at night in the next 7 days but in the low 40's during the day and cloudy or 50's and raining? You cannot even enjoy a walk. God , please make this shitty weather pattern go away for my Christmas present. Cloudy, with a low around 28. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Cloudy, with a high near 44. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Saturday Night A slight chance of light rain after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 35. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday A slight chance of light rain before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 47. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Christmas Day Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Monday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Tuesday Rain likely, mainly after 1pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Rain likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

wow am on I godlike productions? Hey I know many are ticked off that a brown christmas is about to be dumped on us again but look at this way- most of you have 40+ years for more white christmases- I have a dozen at the most. If anyone is pissed off it is me but name calling does not get anyone anything but banned off the site. Think about how much your municipality/sate is saving on salting the roads and start asking for some tax relief. At least get something out of your misery for not dealing with shoveling and blowing white crap.

The hopium level s rising in every model run by posters. My first BS call several weeks ago Jan 22 time frame still looks promising at the rate things are panning out. And that is still wish washy. The kick the can syndrome is sickening on these model runs. One big hit on 15 days and then subsequent runs push it off after one run. Absolutley no sustainable pattern change evident. Looking at these BS ensembles is like staring in a mirror long enough until you see a whisker hair grow same chances LMAO

I have been worried about rain drought earlier in the summer but this snow drought is killing us for groundwater recharge next spring. I really hope the pattern changes by mid january. I am afraid the past two weeks of heavy rain maybe the only saving grace for groundwater recharge. The snow cover map below is the worst areal coverage that I have seen at Christmas for snow cover . The upper midwest is in serious trouble with even Minneapolis to Milwaukee with no snow on the ground . It will take one hell of an arctic front - 20-30 degree drop for 3-5 days to break this pattern that we are in. I do not see that happening in the next two weeks as each model run keep kicking the can down the road for even a small snow event for our area let alone arctic air intrusion. http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map_only.php?var=ssm_depth&min_x=-125.0&min_y=24.0&max_x=-67.0&max_y=53.0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&title=1&width=650&height=402&font=0&lbl=m&palette=0&h_o=0&metric=0&snap=1&o9=1&o12=0&o13=0

so far the most legitimate post in the last month in this forum. I see the exact same scenario unfolding in the same time period with the 50/50 low and the Quebec high finally being setup instead of being tossed out of the way with some fricking Miller A storm event around. If this setup can hold for longer than five days in the LR models we have a shot of a decent snowstorm.

I am not the only one saying this either ------below is also from the respected meteorologist from the Pit. central PA forum ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I definitely like the look of the pattern from a 500mb standpoint with the below average heights over the southern US with above in Canada, eventually progged to center west of Hudson Bay in central (and then western) Canada . We’ll eventually score something if we continue to maintain that suppressed storm track look, which is generally shown across the guidance. My big problem for the time being is temps. It’s going to rear it’s ugly head again with the storm next week that has been pretty consistently on guidance in that Dec 27-28ish period. Gonna try to cut but it looks like it’s going to be forced to reform on the coast. If say today’s 12z GFS scenario played out there’s no decent antecedent cold air in place with the initial low trying to drive well west and the coastal beginning to form and it’s too far displaced N for the northeasterly flow of the coastal to draw it down (similar to what just happened). That storm looks to be a part of the overall pattern reshuffle but I don’t think we’re going to have a snow threat out of it, certainly not in the Sus Valley but probably not in this part of PA either. Notably above average temps in Canada and X amount of the Northern US depending on the flavor of longer range model guidance (weeklies, GEFS extended) has been a constant theme. As such I don’t expect a big time arctic air intrusion probably thru at least mid month Jan. Not that we need it, but the big thing that you can see now in regular ensemble guidance is the 500 ridging shifting to western Canada by about New Years. That would at least ensure airmass source directed from Canada and not the Pac, which should get us cold enough to pair up with a storm track which has honestly been pretty favorable for us this season so far. paweather, Mount Joy Snowman, canderson and 1 other 4 Quote Michael Glunt PSU class of '10

by the way, the LR GFS keeps kicking any potential weather pattern change into the second week of January since before Thanksgiving . I have given up any hope of cold air coming our way. When the PAC jet is raging, LR models go literally to shit and you can only rely on 3-5 day models for any pattern changes.

zilcho snow in macungie. Creek still flooded. Again, no artic air until mid january means little chance of snow on the ground for more than 3 days anyway. Drenching rain , flurries, brief cold warm up and then drenching rain again. Typical Tn Valley weather we are having above the mason dixon line. I will go out and say our first big 3-5 inch accumulating snow in our area will be with associated with clipper if we even get one before the first week in January. Simply no arctic air to intrude in these Nor'easters

drought over LMAO 3.80in. and still pouring. Roads closed all around Ancient Oaks , even RT 222 off ramps

lehigh valley getting crushed with rain. Over 2 in and still pouring for the next 3 hours- radar indicates a wave of water coming at us. Flooding now occurring everywhere

on cue. approaching 2 inches inches of rain. Flood warning by 5am should be issued next as Little Lehigh is already out of its banks in my backyard. PAC077-095-181045- /O.EXT.KPHI.FA.Y.0216.000000T0000Z-231218T1045Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Lehigh PA-Northampton PA- 210 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 ...FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues. * WHERE...A portion of east central Pennsylvania, including the following counties, Lehigh and Northampton. * WHEN...Until 545 AM EST. * IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rises in small streams and normally dry arroyos. Water over roadways. Overflowing poor drainage areas. Some low-water crossings may become impassable. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 209 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly across portions of the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. An additional inch of rain will fall. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Allentown, Bethlehem, Northampton, Hellertown, Lehigh University, Catasauqua, Fountain Hill, Coplay, North Catasauqua, Freemansburg, Fullerton, and Hokendauqua. - This includes Interstate 78 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 62 and 67. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

pouring its ass off right now in Macungie . Creek levels coming up quickly. Flash flood advisory should be issued in the next hour or so

those guys in the NYC forum are bonkers- 5-7 inches. They are dry slotted right now.

a bunch of BS for any snow until next year. The models cannot even agree right now from run to another eight hours later. 3 consecutive runs at 36 hours before the event showing accumulating snow - thats believable. Until then hook line and sinker for the gullible ones

I think payback time with the increased snow chances will be coming around Martin Luther KIng's Birthday. Otherwise, until then - welcome to the typical winter for Tn cold with rainy conditions.