Albedoman

The NAM showed total positive snow depth accumulations meeting or exceeding warning criteria for the LV first the time in several years in tonight's run This is a promising trend that the winter storm watch may be upgraded to an actual warning before the snow event even actually occurs and not during the event . That has not happened in 2-3 years. To me, that is what I have been waiting for this entire year. Once that warning is issued- it can snow a foot or more- I really do not care about being too specific on totals. I think many of us are waiting for the magical warning to be issued too. We have all waited way too long.

I admire you sticking to your call but the thing that bothers me in this run is there is one hell of a discrepancy of 6 inches vs 17 inches. Thats nearly an inch or so more of available precipitable water for snow making. LIke I said another 8 hour run or so should iron some of it out. But even if I took half of that extra precip out this run, it would still meet winter storm warning easily. 8-12+ in seems more in line if this trend continues

If these models agree with the HRRR run in the last hour , there will be major changes in snowfall totals

LV Blizzard, based on this MAJOR change, Mt Holly should issue a winter storm warning for the LV if this model shows this again at the 6z . Its hard to argue the map below as this is a pretty accurate sr model

NO way in hell. completely different setup with arctic air already in place from clippers in 2007. Here is your reminder- from the old weatherman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2007_North_American_blizzard

Lehighton is located on the Blue Mts range- Appalachian Trail location. South Mountain is a lower elevation ridge of mountains/hills that separates Lehigh Valley on the southeast side of the Lehigh Valley running parallel to the Delaware River up to about Easton. For example - I-78 traverses over South Mountain at the Route 309 interchange- the huge hill before you come into the Allentown area. Anything southeast of Allentown is more in the Fall line area. Many times it snows in Allentown but not in Quakertown and points southeast because of the South Mountains, In fact Bear Creek ski resort in Macungie is in the top ten of ski resorts in the US is also at the top of the South Mountain Range and I live about 5 miles from it https://www.thetravel.com/best-mountain-resorts-in-the-us-for-winter/#bear-creek-mountain-resort-pennsylvania-a-mountain-wonderland

for us physical geographers -- South Mountain Range in eastern PA is what usually defines where the typical snow falls elevation driven and where it does not In NJ, the south mountain range extends into Highlands and usually is the demarcation line

this is snow map for positive snow growth is doable if it holds for a couple of days however a few runs are not enough to convince me of this being believable. We have burned way too many fricking times. When the NAM/Euro shows this three days out , then I am all in

here is he clown map I will say this, these large amounts being shown after a few days of runs should not be ingored. While we may never get these amounts, its a dam good sign that we will get at least half this amount as shown

roads caving deck covered - fire up the snow blower here in macungie. Expect a foot by 4 am. 3-4 in per hour. Oh my bad ------reading the the report from Mammoth Springs Ca again. LOL

Best post of the year thus far. One week of a true winter in three years is not going to cut it for me. A big fat D thus far for me for this winter . Even if we get another whopper March 1958 storm like event which is very plausible in this current screwed up pattern, the rest of this winter absolutely was an F. One big snowfall event does not define a true winter at least for me especially when it be already melted away the very next day. It was really nice to see frozen ponds and some creeks with snow cover and temps below freezing all week earlier this month. With no cold air coming from Canada in the foreseeable future and even if a little of it comes in, it will be very short in duration because virtually no deep snow pack exists across the country and especially in Alberta Canada area. This image below says it all folks http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map_only.php?var=ssm_depth&min_x=-125.0&min_y=24.0&max_x=-67.0&max_y=53.0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&title=1&width=650&height=402&font=0&lbl=m&palette=0&h_o=0&metric=0&snap=1&o9=1&o12=0&o13=0

NCAENS applies to this situation folks-- no cold air equals no snow. A hopium weather pattern in a El Nino year -- right LOL MY favorite clip for this imagining weather pattern situation:

NAM is a good SR model. Case closed. That is why its been around for 40+ years. Sorry it does not show snow at your house but at my domain, 8 in of snow is shown in Macungie. Do I believe it- no way in hell. It will be all white rain as it is elevation driven around the hills at my house for accumulation. All it shows is that the thermal profiles will be cold enough for snow but the ground will be too warm. All SR weather models cannot predict precise ground temps or are precise on elevation snow events. This last run just demonstrates to me that white rain will fall for a few hours in Morning morning. Time to move on to mid Feb. I really missed the 80 degrees in washington DC today. It would have been nice to open windows.

I-80 and or I-78 IN E PA/NJ . Elevation driven period

Walt your thoughts on 12z Euro clown map for the LV? Totals high because of low snow ratios . Cutting in half still gets a warning event however. RT 78/80 would be challenge to drive if the event unfolds

my god, a bunch of debbie downers Its not even the end of january and you guys are calling for the end of winter. Many of you thought the same thing at the end of Dec and now look at us- nearly a foot of snow in the past two weeks. Stop hugging the ensemble models for a biggie. It is not coming. We will be in a relaxed pattern for the next two weeks, then the front door will be kicked in near of just after Valentines Day. Patience is virtue. The pattern we are in is very typical of a moderate El Nino year. SECS usually occur near Presidents Day to St Patricks Day in this pattern. I have seen it over and over for 40 years.

FWIW for those who were in elem school in the 90's as winter arrived a few days earlier than I thought nearly a month ago, this will all be history by the end of the week with the normal january thaw as the pattern begins to reload. I will predict that by the end of the week, most of this snow cover will be gone except for the huge snow piles in the parking lots with the barrage of moderate rain events and warmer temps. Then by the the 30th, another whopper of a rain/snow storm is leading the way to bring cold temps back into our area after Ground hogs day. Snow for the Poconos mix for LV and rain for Philly appears to be the makeup of that storm event. Anything can happen as there is not enough cold air in place right now in the models. After that the new pattern gets established during the first week in February, by the third week of February there is a real good chance of a significant winter storm event (maybe a few back to back events ) for the entire region. This what historically I have seen in a typical scenario of a relaxing El Nino pattern in the last 30 years here. welcome comments but this what I have witnessed

as winter arrived a few days earlier than I thought nearly a month ago, this will all be history by the end of the week with the normal january thaw as the pattern begins to reload. I will predict that by the end of the week, most of this snow cover will be gone except for the huge snow piles in the parking lots with the barrage of moderate rain events and warmer temps. Then by the the 30th, another whopper of a rain/snow storm is leading the way to bring cold temps back into our area after Ground hogs day. Snow for the Poconos mix for LV and rain for Philly appears to be the makeup of that storm event. Anything can happen as there is not enough cold air in place right now in the models. After that the new pattern gets established during the first week in February, by the third week of February there is a real good chance of a significant winter storm event (maybe a few back to back events ) for the entire region. This what historically I have seen in a typical scenario of a relaxing El Nino pattern in the last 30 years here. welcome comments but this what I have witnessed

I misspoke sorry. But the idea of splitting three very urbanized counties with one inch snowfall differences for issuing WSW needs to be immediately rethought. Its been 5+ years since this new criteria was adopted and there has been significant population increases along with increased dependency on traveling between the LV, Bucks and Montgomery counties and even into the Poconos. These areas are quickly becoming very interdependent as far as workplace, housing and recreation, especially with all of the warehouses being built in the LV and Poconos. WE are the one of the fastest growing urbanized areas in the entire country and number one in the state. The current expansion of the NE turnpike is a fine example of what I am talking about. I hope MT Holly sits down after this winter season and considers lowering the WSW criteria to 5 inches all the way to the Poconos. As the old timer travelers advisories were once issued when snowfall was over four inches. That snowfall criteria should have been maintained for winter storm warnings and should have never been changed IMHO. The four inch criteria was set in place as the point when it became harder for snow plow drivers to clear the roads in only one pass. The problem still exists today.

for those who do not know: 1. Winter storm warnings were issued for those areas where the 5 in snowfall criteria for issuing the warning has been met in the models. Unfortunately Montgomery/Bucks county were split down the middle with the existing WSW snowfall criteria levels for winter storm warnings. This is one scenario where me and the NOAA do not agree on. One inch snow accumulation difference in a metropolitan area of nearly 1-2 million people like the LV and northern Montgomery/Bucks county (more population than many states) does not make sense whatsoever . I hope they revise the winter weather advisories to WSW warnings and issue one for the northern Montgomery/Bucks county and the LV, especially since they calling for 8 in in the point forecast for Macungie PA and the criteria is 6 in. This is one storm I would err and be cautious about because of the higher snow ration and colder temps and blowing snow. There will be lots of accidents Friday night rush hour with drivers trying to beat the storm to ge to their destinations as many roads will be snow packed quickly 2. Blowing snow was also inserted into the forecast. Thank you Mt. Holly. This storm event will be discussed by all the posters and the media as being remembered for the blowing snow, frigid temps and lower visibilities and not just for high snow accumulations. This is the type of storm the old folks like me really remember of how winter should be and not just having the back breaking 20 inch snow events. Macungie point forecast Tonight A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow. High near 28. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Night A chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Saturday Night Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 27. Blustery.

sorry, Mike my age is showing. The current winter weather advisory should be continued into Saturday morning based on perhaps satisfying part of this criteria below Blowing snow advisory (WSW) – Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour (40 to 56 km/h) accompanied by falling and blowing snow, occasionally reducing visibilities to 1⁄4 mile (0.40 km) or less, will occur for at least three hours. Discontinued beginning with the 2008-2009 winter storm season and replaced by the Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing Snow.[24] If the criteria is not meant, then a special hazardous statement maybe issued similar to when there is black ice.. Anyway, blowing snow will be an issue in the rural areas. Its been a real long time - before 2009 - since we have had this type of weather with high snow ratios and winds together and drivers will not be used to it thats for sure too.

Said this yesterday: this model indicates near 5.5 inches for my location. I say bring it on. LMAO . But folks its not the snow amounts that interest me at this time. For the first time in at least five years or more, we will have what I call the 3F's 1. fluffy high ratio snows, 2. frigid temps and 3. frequent gusts of high winds near 35 mph. The 3F's will produce a pretty good amount blowing of snow and drifting on local flat and or steep roads, especially in the countryside. As soon as the plows open them up, they will be be clogged again within a few hours with drifting snow. Now thats a real winter to me. Mt Holly has not included blowing snow in their forecasts this evening. That is troublesome to me but I expect them to issue a special statement on the blowing snow scenario for Saturday by Friday afternoon Cannot wait for the blowing snow statement- just as good as a winter storm warning- Eye candy

this model indicates near 5.5 inches for my location. I say bring it on. LMAO . But folks its not the snow amounts that interest me at this time. For the first time in at least five years or more, we will have what I call the 3F's 1. fluffy high ratio snows, 2. frigid temps and 3. frequent gusts of high winds near 35 mph. The 3F's will produce a pretty good amount blowing of snow and drifting on local flat and or steep roads, especially in the countryside. As soon as the plows open them up, they will be be clogged again within a few hours with drifting snow. Now thats a real winter to me. Mt Holly has not included blowing snow in their forecasts this evening. That is troublesome to me but I expect them to issue a special statement on the blowing snow scenario for Saturday by Friday afternoon

Just what the pixie fairy called for good grief. Throw a tooth under the pillow too

why anyone would be looking at global models for tonights snow totals is a definite snow weenie. The NAM , RGEM and HRRR thats it baby. There needs to be a blend of all these models for SR forecasting of snow totals within 36 hours of the event, Then many people can hype that instead of whats on the LR