Albedoman

well this drought guy has had his ass handed to him this week on a silver shovel in the Macungie area . On Tuesday, I had nearly 11 inches of snow. Well this morning, add and other 15 inches and I have had over two feet in 5 days. No model in the world saw this coming. That deathband gave me 4 in+ hour rates for 1.5 hours. We now have had more snow this year than any area in PA right now- Alburtis Macungie area is now the snow king of PA this year.- just unbelievable I shall declare the drought dead and for some people who hate snow, they would say the groundhog was dead to. LOL

video or it did not happen LOL

Over a foot with the deathband now in Macungie

this is my backyard. Add another foot to Tuesdays amount - nearly two feet of snow in 5 days plus we went under a winter storm warning at 1:30 . Still snowing under the death band too

the yard stick is on the one post and the table was cleared before the event as well as my squirrel feeder

Two winter storm warnings within 5 days too. Mt Holly calling for 10 inches for this event and I bet I have that much already on my deck Unbelievable- looks worse outside than the last 10 inch storm here on Tuesday. Just woke up to another 8-12 inches. That death band did not move after I went to bed for a few hours. The Bear Creek ski resort has got to love this. Talk about an over performer. I am in total disbelief. It is still coming down too

Unbelievable- looks worse outside than the last 10 inch storm here on Tuesday. Just woke up to another 8-12 inches. That death band did not move after I went to bed for a few hours. The Bear Creek ski resort has got to love this. Talk about an over performer. I am in total disbelief. It is still coming down too

moderate to heavy snow now brined roads caving too

light snow in Macungie

Ok Ralph triple dog dare you LOL https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2295805320575697

thanks MIke for the clarification. I see warnings issued for lower Bucks/Montgomery counties. I really wish that MT Holly would consider lowering the 6 in criteria for WSW to the Blue Mts to 5 in. There needs to be uniformity with the interstate system being used as a basis for this criteria and since I-78, Rt 222 , RT 309 and the NE Turnpike are so much more urbanized with heavier truck traffic and is the fastest growing area in the state.

Its blended alright- LOL

This is promising for everyone- ECM is pretty spot on at this range in 7-8 days

At the rate this LP is getting juiced in the latest model runs, 4-6 in from a line from Reading over to Central Montgomery/Bucks County seems likely. Betting WSW will be issued from Norristown south where the 5 In criteria maybe met. If I was Mt Holly , I would issue a winter storm watch for the other areas to the immediate north up to the LV and wait until the 00Z runs come in for the NAM/HRRR to either upgrade to a WSW or downgrade to an advisory. Everyone else a WWA. Confidence is real low for reaching WSW criteria north of Norristown. The best part is that this will be a plowable event for most everyone.

2-4 with lollipops of 5 in eastern pa Mt Holly good call When the 3 match up in 24-36 hours it works

true to form. WWA just issued for the LV URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 203 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 NJZ007-009-010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-162100- /O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.240217T0300Z-240217T1500Z/ Warren-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton- Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Washington, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 203 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Periods of light to moderate snowfall is expected Friday night into Saturday.

yep, I agree . Its show time for the HRRR with the 00Z runs which should drop the hammer with WWA lifted all the way to the LV by morning

If this scenario holds at the 00z and or 06z runs ,WWA should be issued for the LV and for Montgomery /Bucks County by Friday morning. The real take on this run of the NAM is that the ground will still be snow covered from Tuesday's snow which will aid tremendously in the accumulation of the snow on grassy surfaces. In other words the typical white rain scenario is thrown out the door as even the roads will cave immediately if not brine or salted. I expect a shit load of brine to be used on the roads around here on Friday afternoon. Furthermore at five inches, coming closer for a Winter storm watch to be issued for Montgomery and Bucks too. Elevation again is a factor as the South Mountain range appears to be in the bullseye on this NAM run. Definitely be a plowable event too if this comes to fruition.

Interpreting LR/SR modeling is an art IMHO. It has taken me 30 years to find a good model combination to rely on. FWIW this how I do it. I was spot on this last storm even the though fellow posters told me hogwash. I called for 8-12 on sunday and stuck with my guns in the LV 1. Rely on the the 10 day Euro on the tenth day to sniff out the potential storm being evolved. Any potential storm event that shows up on the tenth day count it as a storm in play even if the other models say no way jose. 2. Wait at day 7 for the GFS to actually sniff out the same storm that Euro hit on day 10. The 15 day GFS is only somewhat accurate at 7 days 3. Wait until the NAM/RGEM comes into range at 84 hours together with the Euro at three days to start forming any type of snow accumulations predictions 4. At 36 hours narrow your the predictions using the NAM, RGEM, HRRR and Euro in that order 5. At 24 hours use the 12km NAM and HRRR only Trust me, if you use this game plan, you will be close to the actual snowfall accumulations. Remember these are modeling tools are from the tool box and how you use those tools make a hell of a big difference. Using these models is like using the right wrench, metric or standard for the right type of bolt or in this case the best model for the right type of storm event. Miller B's and hybrids storm events, I would follow the aforementioned pattern. On MIller A's primarily the Euro the entire way with the NAM at the very end. Anything else like a clipper, only the NAM at 36 hours. This true and tried method has worked well for me since the early 90's