Albedoman

my eyes are all focused on the Tuesday/Wed storm. To hell with a 6-8+ in snow event tomorrow that will be all gone by Tuesday evening. Flooding is going to be a huge problem with down trees from the 30+ mph winds everywhere and power outages. Sump pumps will be going full board. MT Holly has been very concerned as well. The old timers know this is a perfect setup for localized flooding of basements. I see Easton possibly being flooded by the Delaware as the major rivers in our area hit flood stage. The Little Lehigh and Perkiomen will be be flooding and dozens roads will be unpassable. Do not know if it will be as bad as 1996 but it will be bad believe me. I am really surprised that no one is really discussing it, but it has the potential of being devastating for our area for flood damage. I having serious concerns that a potential of 15+ inches of precipitable water in the LV in the course of three weeks is not being more discussed in this forum.

geographically, they should issue winter storm watches. The physical geography does NOT lie with the location I-78 but the the south mountain/Blue Mountain range for all precip forecasting Pin point forecasting does not work well above the south mountain range IMHO and is basically useless. Using I-78 as a weather demarcation line does not work in the LV because the interstate divides the LV in half going west to east instead of north and south at it lowest elevation. There is no room for error. Once it starts snowing on the northeast side of South Mountain range near MACUNGIE, all forecasted snow accumulations are off and stack up quickly. Want proof, SIMPLY ask a Penndot plower. They sit at the top of the hills everywhere.

I made the first call of 6-8" with lollipops yesterday to my friends. Sticking to it until I see the the NAM tomorrow night which could change the amounts

Winter storm watches maybe issued by Thursday evening for LV north, especially if the NAM agrees by the 18Z runs on Thursday. Every LR model demonstrates satisfying winter storm warning criteria for the LV the last day or so. Confidence level is somewhat high at above 60% too. Looks promising but I will still rely on the NAM runs on Thursday night to agree with the Euro runs on Friday morning for a WS warning to be issued by Friday 18Z runs. Accumulations look to be 8+ inches on the clown maps but meeting at least 6 in on the total positive snow map is somewhat satisfying in these LR models. I will go with the latter until the NAM shows its cards. The NAM/HRRR is basically the River card in this poker game involving a winter storm event to be issued for the LV. Once that card is turned over, we will all know where we stand.

I said this yesterday to Iceman. its expected. Wait until Wednesday Evening when the the NAM runs come in. Then things will adjust to reality. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion Albedoman replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region 5 days out wild card outcomes coming up now in this run for some of these models. Model chaos going ballistic as the minimal PAC buoy info is now being fed into the models which is creating topsy turvy models expectations. . Will correct itself by Thursday morning. Cross your fingers and stay calm as even the Euro is known to do this.

5 days out wild card outcomes coming up now in this run for some of these models. Model chaos going ballistic as the minimal PAC buoy info is now being fed into the models which is creating topsy turvy models expectations. . Will correct itself by Thursday morning. Cross your fingers and stay calm as even the Euro is known to do this.

lets wait for the NAM run on Wed evening. The potential for accumulating snow is there for sure but WSW criteria will be hard to achieve even in Allentown. We first want to get a better picture for the exact transfer location (sweetspot) nd HP energy in Quebec. The we can talk how much. 48 hours from now will tell us everything on the NAM

I agree with your analysis. The biggest issue IMHO for this event --- if the snow falls Saturday afternoon into the evening as currently shown, the ground melting will cave quickly. I can easily see us reaching a foot if that happens by Sunday mid morning especially if dendritic growth becomes expansive. and if any frontogenesis occurs too. I will assume that the moisture content of the snowflake itself will be very high too. That will lead to serious medical issues throughout the region as many are not used to shoveling wet heavy snow in the last 3-4 years because of the light in moisture content with snowfalls in the past La Nina years. I too rely on the positive snow depth change totals in the 5 day LR models then work up from there based on the aforementioned factors. The NAM models as well as the HRRR models will fine tune and sniff out the final snow accumulations, usually with 36-48 hours of the event . In my past years forecasting , I alway relied on the LR Euro at 5 days and if the SR NAM backed the totals too, it was pretty a dam accurate forecast for snowfall events.

for shitz and giggle Old Henry Margusity is throwing out this snow map. C'mon man, the storm has not even shown up on the NAM models yet

Walter Drag, I find this really unusual that Henry would post such a map in a topsy turvy weather pattern we are in right now. There is no set weather pattern at this time This amount of snow he is depicting is not even on the NAM 84 hours yet? This type of snow hype is nonsensical. Whatever happened to realistic forecasting?

thanks just want to give you guys a heads up

walt as the old timer around here, I absolutely agree with you. The consequences of a 8-12 in snow then a 2-4 inch follow up rain event would be disastrous to the Lehigh Valley. I have recorded over 11 inches of rain in December already with another five inches of precipitable water in wet snow and rain hitting the ground will produce widespread riverine flooding and not just local streams. The karst ghost lakes have also appeared in the karst areas of the LV with roads still under water in places three days after last weeks rain. This is the fist time I have see them in over five years and they usually appear after the ground has been frozen. The ground is not frozen yet which is a real concern and justifiably so. So what does this mean? The Delaware, Raritan, Schuylkill and Passaic rivers will be flooding big time if the second storm becomes a firehose. All the media crap of an atmospheric river present in California will be nothing to what we have experienced the last 45 days here in eastern PA/NJ with flooding rains and the the what the models are depicting. This is absolutely historical in nature and you are spot on by your synopsis. In my 45+ years of meteorological experience, I have only seen such a flooding scenario open up like what is being modeled and that was January 96 and believe me if this scenario unfolds as the models are hinting , we will see a 96 redux of this historical flooding situation again in our region. Many of the posters in these forums were in diapers or not even born in 96 and have no idea how bad the flooding can be. I will be watching closely believe me

Posted on Dec 27 for those who are dejected and wishing to cancel winter based on the latest model runs do not fret ---- I am an historical meteorologist . You may ask what the hell is that? I rely on my personal weather pattern experiences over the last 50 years since I have been old enough to enjoy the knowledge of weather since I was 12 years old. I learned much weather from uncle who was the regional head forecasting meteorologist for NOAA (NWS) in the western US. I also was an air traffic controller in the Navy and graduated with a BS physical geography degree with a concentration in atmospheric science(Before many meteorological schools were even around). I do not rely solely LR daily model runs until the storms are within 48-72 hours period. Anything else is simply conjecture. I only rely on LR models to help establish the future temp/precip ranges and the possibilities of changes in the long term weather patterns. That is it. I was using my personal experiences and senses in the early 70's to 80's when there were no daily 8 hour model runs and the only models were spit out in a past weekly bulletin on the weeks previous storm events. I spent more time analyzing the storm patterns such as neutral, el nino and la nina patterns instead of relying just on LR computer model ensembles. Weather has been boiled down to a simple game of statistical chances by using computer model ensembles. Right or wrong, I side with past history Right now I see nothing but cold polar air bottled up in northern Canada with pacific cold fronts flowing zonally across the country Alberta Canada is where we get our cold air from except for an occasional backdoor cold front. There is nada coming from either direction right now. The southern jet stream is buckling but the northern stream will not come down into mid USA period to phase and deepen the lows. Until we get an LP over Alberta forming a clipper bringing that locked up polar air in Canada to the central US and introducing a potential pattern change, there is nothing we can do but watch models kick the potential 3-6 in snow events further into the 10-15 day time frame. WE must have sustainable cold- WE HAVE NONE. The potential of a 2-4 or 3-6 in snow event keeps showing up during the Jan 9-11 time frame but that is all it is. When I see it show up on the NAM at 36 hours- thats doable IMHO. My past personal history for those who believe in what I do, compares this year to 1993 where we had a crappy el nino winter 2-4 inches of snow until late February where we did get some accumulating snow event followed by the March superstorm which was a triple phaser. The el nino years below in a sample ranking chart . Please note 1958 has been thrown in the rankings for your forum too in February. (Morgantown blizzard) The winters are definitely back loaded for heavy snow sure in these years with some cold. It is just that we usually get cold sustainable cold in neutral years from the passage of continuous clippers as the el nino pattern is dying-- last gasp storm event before going into a neutral year. Remember how the severe cold in early 1994 set in that was attributable from weakening neutral year with the combination of MT Pinatubo eruption? We have not had a neutral winter in a long time. 3+ years. Lets see what the second to third week of January can throw at us? Yes once this event is in Wednesday evening's run on the NAM, I will be on board. The fire hose scenario afterwards would be be terrible as far as basement flooding and local stream flooding. We need no more rain period for two weeks. Cetronia Rd near my house is still under water after 4 days and there is no creek within 1.5 of this area that is flooded. Natural closed depressions in the farm fields are abundantly full of standing water. That is why you see so much geese flying north. They love standing water in corn/soybean fields in Karst geology areas that are not frozen. Give the freezing temps now please.

hell I am still in the game for the Jan 7-11 storm event. 2-4 in of snow is still on the table in the LR even though it keeps disappearing every other run. May not be much of anything but it is still something. I compare this possible snow event to like a typical Pearl Harbor day snow event - just a month late

what the hell-- giving up already? Have a brewski man. The party will start after the third week in January as I have stated the past three weeks or so. MY past history with this type of pattern indicates that the cold air must get back to Canada by Valentines day. When the clippers come in succession, so does the sustainable cold air. It will take time. Patience man patience.

I informed Elliot from the Eagles and he is ready to kick that 61 yarder to win a game for snow right now. By the way Elliot is from my alma mater University of Memphis as well as Gainwell. The UM Tigers play in 30 minutes in the Liberty Bowl. I told Elliot to kick the ball for last nights 00Z GFS run like it is for the game and playoffs.

my backyard today made the news - not happy about it https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/crews-work-to-restore-customers-power-after-heavy-rain-floods-some-lehigh-valley-roads-causes/article_71b06976-a5c7-11ee-bd24-0ff2784b933a.html#tncms-source=More-from-newsroom-(right-column)

I hear you. I am over 11 in for the month now with just rain with 3+ more inches in the gauge now. This is utterly ridiculous. The sinkholes will really open by Feb when the water tables to fall again from frozen grounds. A bunch of dead ash trees fell in this storm from the ash borer too in the woods behind my house as the winds were really gusty because of the water logged soils. That was unexpected

here in the lehigh Valley- have 2.5 inches in my gauge thus far-- flooding getting bad. ABE will destroy its all time record for total precip for the month of December tonight. Thats a huge headline. 9 inches is closing in for total rainfall for the month with much more at my house . I am hitting around 11 inches thus far at my house where the fire hose keeps coming at us

2.5 inches of rain thus far at my house near Allentown PA. Allentown is approaching 9 in of rain for the month smashing the all time record tonight Flooding really getting bad

the drought guy still here trying to stay dry. LOL So far 2.20 in of rain here in Ancient Oaks Macungie since 6pm. The row boats coming out again for the Little lehigh behind my house. Spring creek rd will be under water tomorrow morning. I expect Allentown LV will be in the news Heavy rain - the fire hose has been opened up for hours and it is still coming down hard

spoke too soon-- they did not wait until midnight Flood Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 912 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 DEC003-PAC011-017-029-045-077-091-095-280815- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.W.0083.231228T0212Z-231228T0815Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle DE-Berks PA-Bucks PA-Chester PA-Delaware PA-Lehigh PA- Montgomery PA-Northampton PA- 912 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, including the following county, New Castle and Pennsylvania, including the following counties, Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Montgomery and Northampton. * WHEN...Until 315 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 910 PM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned area. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Allentown, Reading, Wilmington, Newark, Easton, Middletown, West Chester, Bethlehem, Norristown, Chester, Pottstown and Phoenixville. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. && LAT...LON 4027 7607 4065 7597 4077 7569 4086 7529 4097 7512 4086 7505 4075 7520 4057 7519 3986 7534 3962 7559 3957 7554 3947 7557 3942 7553 3933 7576 3972 7579 3972 7614 3973 7609 3987 7599 4011 7594 4014 7587

I can arrange that LMAO. Mt Holly decided this afternoon to leave out the LV in a flood watch. Just changed their tune real quick and has just issued one. I expect flood advisories to be issued for my neck of the woods by midnight. This is the most rain I have seen in 30+ years here in the LV in December. We will break the record. ABE rain gauge must have a hole in it if we do not break the record. LOL