Albedoman

This is how close we almost got wacked with ice jams this year. This picture is from the Upper PA forum this afternoon. If we had had the precip pattern that we normally are accustomed to, the Delaware River would have looked like this all the way to Ft Washington, This was taken on the Susequehanna in Luzerne County. The extreme cold with no precip for 3-5 weeks is still unbeleivable. I believe after March 15, the precip machine will finally turn on for us. The drought warning that we are in is basically for groundwater issues as there has no groundwater recharge since last summer.

Friends, the drought guy here has shown my experience now. I finally had enought time the last few weeks to gather my educational background information to provide the board with earning my met tag. Thanks guys

look where S Mtn range is - where the heaviest returns are

That issue with the flood warnings has been resolved over two years ago. Worked with the USGS and Mt Holly setting up criteria for issuing flood warnings for the new USGS solared powered telemetry flood guaging stations near my backyard on Spring creek and the Little lehigh Creek. The most accurate guages in the system IMHO. I have down to the .5 ft of height to the 100 and 500 yr floodplain levels

I live near Rt 100. about 2 miles from bear creek. As I said in an earlier post, Heavy Snow rates and the banding due to orographic lifting over S Mtn range with a SE fetch. Its all physical geography. Yes, it is puking snow right now 2-3 inches already. Flakes are fluffy

Comment all you want at each of the BS model issues , debbbie downers and upbeat amounts posting. Have fun. This old timer only looks at one one model right now ---the NAM and I am also someone convinced of the HRRR lately at this range. - all the rest are garbage for this type of storm event. I have seen and experienced all of the biggies from 1983, 2010, 2021 etc. At this range it is usually the NAM. While it appears a little on the high side right now at these OZ runs tonight, its going to be close depending who gets the deformation bands. These bands tend to fire up along the S Mtn range too so watch out - there will be screw zones. This map seems very plausible to me after doing this for 35+years Where is the thundersnow guys? This will be a defintley in the cards too. Sleet may cut the totals along the coast in the heavier bands

river does not divide- geography does. S Mountains will be the dumping ground with oragraphic lifting and banding

Why do guys even listen to him? MY god, it like listening to this the most annoying sound in the world

Thanks Mike - I forgot. Still used to travelers advisories in my old age. The conditions will be ripe for blizzzard conditions thats for sure anyway.

Who cares let the the kids throw the pennies into the light socket and watch them get the shock of their life. Its the experience of the shock that counts.

Thats why I said what I did as this entire event unfolds today. - with the complete model analogy you must wait until the OZ runs tonight before locking in on these insane snowfall amounts. I have been burned too many times locking in with snow weenie amounts only to watch them dwindle with some freak snow banding situation that pops up. Going negative tilt brings on these type of, especially for the coastal regions. Blizzard watches out for the Atlantic City area? Just how far can it tuck in and deep can it go. Stil too many issues on the table. Lehigh Valley, this looks like we will be watching the Delamarva area get their share now of snow with this storm

will you guys believe me now? As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminIshed capacity IN THE MESO'S----LET IT PLAY OUT FOLKS. I AGREE THAT 6-12" SEEMS PLAUSIBLE --I AM GETTING BLUE IN THE FACE FROM POSTING THIS The GFS models showed 5 days ago 30 inches- all hell broke loose on the board. Then the models lost it all and bang guess what? the NAM brings 20+ inches to the area this afternoon. I am still going with a minimum of 6-12 in but I am willingly to go higher and raise the stakes if the OZ runs show this 18+ in trend being stable. There maybe a few debbie downers later this evening if it goes down as better model dat gets ingested. I also said this storm would happen after the 22nd after the pattern changer on the 14-16th.

As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminIshed capacity IN THE MESO'S----LET IT PLAY OUT FOLKS. I AGREE THAT 6-12" SEEMS PLAUSIBLE --I AM GETTING BLUE IN THE FACE FROM POSTING THIS IN THE LAST WEEK

As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminshed capacity

we are all optimists not pessimists. Go post on his page and rave to your hearts content about how great this guy is. His forecasting is like walking with two left feet and trying tie his shoe laces with no thumbs. Hopeless

I usually, I do not say much about this guy as he always jumps on board at the last minute with hand drawn maps and makes grossly inaccurate long range forecasts. Ralph Wiggum and LV Blizzard has him beat by miles. Anything DT says now, take with a grain of salt. I been reading this guys posts, for 10+ years and I believe Ji from the MA forum more than this DT. As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminshed capacity, especially with qpf amounts, usually cut by 25% or more. This dam reliable LR prediction pattern destroyed my latest prediction on last nights storm where I thought we could get 6+ inches of snow and only got 2-3 inches here in the LV (over ten days ago.) Lets hope the MECS sticks around this time. A separate thread should not be started until Friday evenings Meso runs - anything before then will jinx it. You are warned

Yes on Feb 1, I said 6-12 inches of snow and a pattern change. The pattern change has happened but unfortutantly I was off on the qpf by .50. Not to shabby. I also stated this on Jan 22, 2026 ----"1994 all over again folks if that happens" Well the storm did happen and the depth of cold we have had has rivaled 1994 This weekend' storm is a real crap shoot right now in our relaxed pattern but it would not suprise me at all we all get at least a foot of wet snow as the new pattern really sets in for more warmer temps in the first week in march. I am getting concerned that too much frozen precip right now will enhance ice jamming and flooding, especialy when the pattern gets really warm and perhaps even wet in early march. The temps in early march say we torch to 70 degrees on the GFS. The ice in the Upper Delaware river cannot deal with sudden temps changes into the 60 -70's and if we get heavy rainfall, the residents along the major tribs will be in trouble.

light snow in Macungie

well I did not get the 4-6 inches i prdicted weeks ago but it is a major pattern changer that I had predicted. Lets see what happpens next weekend.

The winter deserves an A- with a big the help of a huge class curve given by the teacher based on all of the misses the last three weeks with potential storms. Its like we have three bad tests of potential winter storms and the teacher is throwing them out to raise the average class scores to achieve an A- with the cold temps and snow cover. lol

thanks, maybe if I get time in the next few days I will

Its time you guys know who I really am. I have hidden my past experiences but you will hear much more about me in the upcoming months as I am dealing directly with data centers in municipalities. MY name Mike Siegel aka the "albedoman -drought guy whatever" . I chose albedoman because my Uncle had to deal directly with the albedo effect when forecasting the potential for forest fires and temp regimes studies in the western US. He wrote several papers on this topic as well as others and at one time directed the entire Western Region of NOAA. This person underlined below is my weather mentor and also is my Uncle. He is 83. I have degree in physical geography- concentration in atmospheric sciences and environmental science (not too many meteorology schols back in the late 70's) with a minor in geology and post graduate work in satellite imagery with a ton of hours and certifications in Environmental science and urban planning. I was also an air traffic controller in the Navy. My resume is several pages long and have written magazine articles and publish papers at Penn State dealing with stormwater issues involving bioengineering and recently authored Lowhill Township's Zoning and Land Development Ordinances as their planning consultant. I have been around the block. I recently came out of retirement in 2025 to serve as the Township Manager of Lowhill Township, Lehigh County by accepting an offer I just could not refuse. I did retire in 2010 from Lower Providence Township in Montgomery County as their Director of Planning and Development and was the Building Codes directer and zoning officer. David E. Olsen was a meteorologist associated with the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). Historical U.S. government and NOAA technical documents list him as the author of meteorological forecast reports such as “Forecasting Maximum Temperatures at Helena, Montana” dating back to the late 1960s, indicating he worked in operational forecasting and climate-related analysis for the Weather Service. Individuals like Olsen typically served as Meteorologist or Meteorologist in Charge at an NWS Weather Forecast Office, producing forecast guidance and contributing to regional temperature forecasts and related climatological studies.

https://www.mcall.com/2026/02/07/giant-chip-split-high-winds-inside-scoop-coopersburg/

I am still on board with this prediction guys, My biggest concern is really severe ice jamming and floods by March. If this pattern even hints at relaxing and opening the Gulf of America with moisture, we are in some deep flooding shit folks with ice jammming. Bridges may go down throughout the region and the folks on Adams Island on the Lehigh River in the LV, their homes will be destroyed and or flooded. The ice jams that I remeber while I was the Twp manager in Lower Mt Bethel Township, I saw mobile homes and cars 40 feet in the air stuck in trees. Its going to be really really bad if we get a quick warmup with flooding rains after this pattern change, especially around the 22nd time period.