Albedoman

NCAENS applies to this situation folks-- no cold air equals no snow. A hopium weather pattern in a El Nino year -- right LOL MY favorite clip for this imagining weather pattern situation:

NAM is a good SR model. Case closed. That is why its been around for 40+ years. Sorry it does not show snow at your house but at my domain, 8 in of snow is shown in Macungie. Do I believe it- no way in hell. It will be all white rain as it is elevation driven around the hills at my house for accumulation. All it shows is that the thermal profiles will be cold enough for snow but the ground will be too warm. All SR weather models cannot predict precise ground temps or are precise on elevation snow events. This last run just demonstrates to me that white rain will fall for a few hours in Morning morning. Time to move on to mid Feb. I really missed the 80 degrees in washington DC today. It would have been nice to open windows.

I-80 and or I-78 IN E PA/NJ . Elevation driven period

Walt your thoughts on 12z Euro clown map for the LV? Totals high because of low snow ratios . Cutting in half still gets a warning event however. RT 78/80 would be challenge to drive if the event unfolds

my god, a bunch of debbie downers Its not even the end of january and you guys are calling for the end of winter. Many of you thought the same thing at the end of Dec and now look at us- nearly a foot of snow in the past two weeks. Stop hugging the ensemble models for a biggie. It is not coming. We will be in a relaxed pattern for the next two weeks, then the front door will be kicked in near of just after Valentines Day. Patience is virtue. The pattern we are in is very typical of a moderate El Nino year. SECS usually occur near Presidents Day to St Patricks Day in this pattern. I have seen it over and over for 40 years.

FWIW for those who were in elem school in the 90's as winter arrived a few days earlier than I thought nearly a month ago, this will all be history by the end of the week with the normal january thaw as the pattern begins to reload. I will predict that by the end of the week, most of this snow cover will be gone except for the huge snow piles in the parking lots with the barrage of moderate rain events and warmer temps. Then by the the 30th, another whopper of a rain/snow storm is leading the way to bring cold temps back into our area after Ground hogs day. Snow for the Poconos mix for LV and rain for Philly appears to be the makeup of that storm event. Anything can happen as there is not enough cold air in place right now in the models. After that the new pattern gets established during the first week in February, by the third week of February there is a real good chance of a significant winter storm event (maybe a few back to back events ) for the entire region. This what historically I have seen in a typical scenario of a relaxing El Nino pattern in the last 30 years here. welcome comments but this what I have witnessed

as winter arrived a few days earlier than I thought nearly a month ago, this will all be history by the end of the week with the normal january thaw as the pattern begins to reload. I will predict that by the end of the week, most of this snow cover will be gone except for the huge snow piles in the parking lots with the barrage of moderate rain events and warmer temps. Then by the the 30th, another whopper of a rain/snow storm is leading the way to bring cold temps back into our area after Ground hogs day. Snow for the Poconos mix for LV and rain for Philly appears to be the makeup of that storm event. Anything can happen as there is not enough cold air in place right now in the models. After that the new pattern gets established during the first week in February, by the third week of February there is a real good chance of a significant winter storm event (maybe a few back to back events ) for the entire region. This what historically I have seen in a typical scenario of a relaxing El Nino pattern in the last 30 years here. welcome comments but this what I have witnessed

I misspoke sorry. But the idea of splitting three very urbanized counties with one inch snowfall differences for issuing WSW needs to be immediately rethought. Its been 5+ years since this new criteria was adopted and there has been significant population increases along with increased dependency on traveling between the LV, Bucks and Montgomery counties and even into the Poconos. These areas are quickly becoming very interdependent as far as workplace, housing and recreation, especially with all of the warehouses being built in the LV and Poconos. WE are the one of the fastest growing urbanized areas in the entire country and number one in the state. The current expansion of the NE turnpike is a fine example of what I am talking about. I hope MT Holly sits down after this winter season and considers lowering the WSW criteria to 5 inches all the way to the Poconos. As the old timer travelers advisories were once issued when snowfall was over four inches. That snowfall criteria should have been maintained for winter storm warnings and should have never been changed IMHO. The four inch criteria was set in place as the point when it became harder for snow plow drivers to clear the roads in only one pass. The problem still exists today.

for those who do not know: 1. Winter storm warnings were issued for those areas where the 5 in snowfall criteria for issuing the warning has been met in the models. Unfortunately Montgomery/Bucks county were split down the middle with the existing WSW snowfall criteria levels for winter storm warnings. This is one scenario where me and the NOAA do not agree on. One inch snow accumulation difference in a metropolitan area of nearly 1-2 million people like the LV and northern Montgomery/Bucks county (more population than many states) does not make sense whatsoever . I hope they revise the winter weather advisories to WSW warnings and issue one for the northern Montgomery/Bucks county and the LV, especially since they calling for 8 in in the point forecast for Macungie PA and the criteria is 6 in. This is one storm I would err and be cautious about because of the higher snow ration and colder temps and blowing snow. There will be lots of accidents Friday night rush hour with drivers trying to beat the storm to ge to their destinations as many roads will be snow packed quickly 2. Blowing snow was also inserted into the forecast. Thank you Mt. Holly. This storm event will be discussed by all the posters and the media as being remembered for the blowing snow, frigid temps and lower visibilities and not just for high snow accumulations. This is the type of storm the old folks like me really remember of how winter should be and not just having the back breaking 20 inch snow events. Macungie point forecast Tonight A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow. High near 28. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Night A chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Saturday Night Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 27. Blustery.

sorry, Mike my age is showing. The current winter weather advisory should be continued into Saturday morning based on perhaps satisfying part of this criteria below Blowing snow advisory (WSW) – Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour (40 to 56 km/h) accompanied by falling and blowing snow, occasionally reducing visibilities to 1⁄4 mile (0.40 km) or less, will occur for at least three hours. Discontinued beginning with the 2008-2009 winter storm season and replaced by the Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing Snow.[24] If the criteria is not meant, then a special hazardous statement maybe issued similar to when there is black ice.. Anyway, blowing snow will be an issue in the rural areas. Its been a real long time - before 2009 - since we have had this type of weather with high snow ratios and winds together and drivers will not be used to it thats for sure too.

Said this yesterday: this model indicates near 5.5 inches for my location. I say bring it on. LMAO . But folks its not the snow amounts that interest me at this time. For the first time in at least five years or more, we will have what I call the 3F's 1. fluffy high ratio snows, 2. frigid temps and 3. frequent gusts of high winds near 35 mph. The 3F's will produce a pretty good amount blowing of snow and drifting on local flat and or steep roads, especially in the countryside. As soon as the plows open them up, they will be be clogged again within a few hours with drifting snow. Now thats a real winter to me. Mt Holly has not included blowing snow in their forecasts this evening. That is troublesome to me but I expect them to issue a special statement on the blowing snow scenario for Saturday by Friday afternoon Cannot wait for the blowing snow statement- just as good as a winter storm warning- Eye candy

this model indicates near 5.5 inches for my location. I say bring it on. LMAO . But folks its not the snow amounts that interest me at this time. For the first time in at least five years or more, we will have what I call the 3F's 1. fluffy high ratio snows, 2. frigid temps and 3. frequent gusts of high winds near 35 mph. The 3F's will produce a pretty good amount blowing of snow and drifting on local flat and or steep roads, especially in the countryside. As soon as the plows open them up, they will be be clogged again within a few hours with drifting snow. Now thats a real winter to me. Mt Holly has not included blowing snow in their forecasts this evening. That is troublesome to me but I expect them to issue a special statement on the blowing snow scenario for Saturday by Friday afternoon

Just what the pixie fairy called for good grief. Throw a tooth under the pillow too

why anyone would be looking at global models for tonights snow totals is a definite snow weenie. The NAM , RGEM and HRRR thats it baby. There needs to be a blend of all these models for SR forecasting of snow totals within 36 hours of the event, Then many people can hype that instead of whats on the LR

what will it take to make you happy- two back to back SECS? Let those who are starved to see a real winter of a white ground and lows near ten degrees for longer than 48 hours in the last three years enjoy their two inches from this snow event for the next week or so. I am so tired of seeing 3-6 in snows be gone in less than three days. What a waste of a good snowpack. By the way this so called lousy 2-4 in snow event will save the ski resorts this year and give snow removal companies some money. These individuals need this pixie dust and pity flakes more than you anyway LOL

Friday event is icing on the cake snow event for Tuesday and not an issue as long it is not another 2 inch rain event. My motto with this event -- SCOGFAM -----snow cover our ground for a month SC method

even though the squall Sunday is not a true clipper, it maybe enough to break the crappy pattern ushering in the arctic air with a strong cold front , even for a week. The models are coming back with the snow this morning for Tuesday too. Not a foot but a moderate snowfall I expect 2-4 or 4-6 would be in line. The best part of all this, we get snow on the ground for longer than 3 days and lows near the single digits Now thats winter too me. I said around the third week? So I am off a few days. I said this a month ago. We take

I just want a 12 in snow pack on the ground for 2 weeks with lows in the single digits and teens. Dam, when did that happen last in the valleys?

About 13 inches of rain for many areas in our forecast region IN 30 DAYS IS NOT NORMAL, especially in DEC - JAN. That is over 30% of annual precipitation on semi frozen with little or no evapotranspiration on saturated grounds in less than 8 weeks. Completely different scenario than a summer tropical storm event. I have the absolute right to flip out a little as this crappy rainy weather pattern has never been experienced by the majority of us in our lifetime including me solely in the winter months. 2011 was the last time we had 13 or more inches of rain in any two consecutive months - back to back tropical storms Irene and Lee in August and Septemeber https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/allentown/most-monthly-precipitation. You are now enjoying something that has never been seen in over 125 years of weather recorded history. That is 100 times more interesting than tracking a dam snow storm to a weather buff. The stupid media not picking up on this weather history situation is beyond me.

better late than never LOL. No more flooding rains hopefully.

the pac buoy info is being ingested into the models the last two days. That will not be the case after tomorrow night. Everyone calm down. The snow will come. Once the buoy info is gone and the LP is positioned in Canada, the location of the LP along the coast will be clearly defined.

hell no I will not flip out. 1-2 inch rain is nothing now. a cakewalk. The major sewer lines in our area are fully surcharged and overflows are occuring from inflow from leaky pipes. This does not bode well for the municipalities of the Lehigh County. The township people today pulled the sewer lid out in front of my house and the pipe was full and it was not blocked after they jetted the collector line. Can you say the shit has already hit the fan with these rainfall amounts in the last 30 days? Bring on the cold and snow , I am ready

Walt, if we can get a decent cutter to come across that polar air in the midwest and drag it over the Appalachians, we are in the game for some decent and memorable snowfall events after next Tuesday. Many posters either do not remember 96 or were not alive but I sure the hell do. It only takes one good cutter with a deep trough and an -NAO to phase LP's some good storms along the east coast. We just need some of that polar air to get the engine fine tuned. That polar air locked in the midwest and Ohio Valley IMHO next week transferring just a few days over to us by a clipper would be like putting is like putting Sea Foam in your V8 carburetor. LOL

The drought guy here saying any chance of drought now will not return until late summer at the earliest. Personally if I see another 2-3 inch rainfall event after Saturday, I give up on winter LOL. I have measured nearly 15 inches of rain in less than 30 days at my domain. To put that in perspective, that is almost 35% of our annual total rainfall in just 30 days with little to no evapotranspiration. That is 100% recharge into the aquifers with unfrozen soils and what does not recharge is 100% runoff. All wells are at max levels and all impoundments for public water supply our at max for our area too. Any snow we get is a real plus now. Spring growth should be fantastic this year with blooming flowers along with those who love to mow because the of all the free nitrogen in the rainfall. The grass will be very green in Late March. I said in earlier posts that the third week of January (21st) would be the trigger. I am real close. The snow conveyor belt is about to begin as cold air is trying is dam hard to blow over the appalachians mountains by the middle part of next week. If a clipper shoots down in our direction, we will get some of that polar air too to set up the parade of storms as the GOM is finally opening its doors after a 5+ year hiatus . Lets cross our fingers.

actually as legitimate snow weenie LOL, I am pretty pissed tonight that Memphis TN will experience a true winter on MLK way before us. What do I mean? The highs on Monday will be in the teens with snow 2-3 inches in memphis. Not alot of snow but dammit, the ratios will be so high with the extreme cold temps and it will be on the ground for days. What really gets me cranking as their overnight lows will be near zero on Monday night. Please make this f*&king rain go away. 15 inches of rain in less than 30 days enough.