Albedoman

Its puking snow right now in Macungie 3-4 inches on the ground now. Visibility cut big time - less than 1/4 mile with stiff breezes Snow ratios up to near 15:1 with the fluff factor

OH no, ten minutes of pixie dust size flakes are already fluffed up pretty good. Snow ratios way are already considerably higher than 10: 1 for sure as the cold air is working down through the profiles. The models indicate 10:1 snow ratios With banding , I see a 8-12 inches in places now. I ran the meteogram generator at KABE/KRDG at 20:1 ratios and its nearly a foot with the expected precip amounts without banding. The start time is a few hours ahead of schedule too. https://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=Kabe&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=20&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

for the newbies: as the LP gets wrapped up, the snow ratios will go up. Looking at models 6 hours hours before this type of storm event is useless. Its all radar folks. A true meteorologist knows the historical function of past events too- just not relying on modelogy. Watch and learn. My Holly is spot on. The HRDPS and HRRR is what to be looking at if you are counting inches. Basically, where the frontogenisis banding sets up. The sweet spot for banding with a historical benchmark storm like this one for good snow banding is in northern montgomery, bucks and the LV. Lets just see how it pans out. Anyway the best part of this storm is the cold and blowing snow afterwards with a chance of thundersnow in the snow banding too.

The Meso's are in play. The delayed start time is usual when trying to overcome the huge amount of dry air in place. Typically starts off as pixie dust and within the hour becomes a moderate snow. The models have a tough time ingesting this dry air for start timing and accumulations as we are in the depth of this huge arctic air mass this time around.. As the moisture and evaporative cooling snowfall overcomes the dry layers in the atmosphere, the snow ratios will increase dramatically thus the moderate snow quickly becomes heavy snow (Fluff factor). If it was windy, we would have whiteout conditions but the LP, I believe is not deep enough and too far away from the coast this time. The HRDPS model is a trusting model for this particular storm event IMHO because it shows the fragmentation of the upper air patterns as the LP lifts northward off the coast. For the LV , also reaching the benchmark usually gives a decent snowfall event so I feel good about getting over 6 inches for a winter storm warning. Banding of the snow is an issue that the meso's seem to have trouble identifying the approximate locations. Where those band setup and the progressives of the LP off the coast is the real determining factor. The storm in Macungie last Feb was a good example of this. Someone will get a lollipop of 10+ inches in the warned areas and we all hope it is over us. LOL

this is what it could look like? https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1068529676892306

I have- its called the HEMP - Historical Experience Meteorological Patterns ---Model - used by us old geezers on occasion before the internet and commodore computers. LMAO Below is how I played modelogy back in the late 70's to early 80"s. they were games:---Wow how have things changed as being more serious and talk about changing from run to run every 6 hours? LMAO https://www.mobygames.com/game/174994/weather-tamers/

A Winter storm warning should be issued tomorrow by early afternoon for the LV. I only say that time frame because of the nuisance precip should get out of the way first but I am not Mt Holly. They could be confident enough to issue Sat morning however Its been a long time coming. Plowable snow - its about time. . This will be the heaviest snow since last year in Feb from the freak snow banding event giving us a localized snow of 15 inches or so in Macungie ( we only got warned during mid stream of last years event- not MT Hollys fault) as seen on 2/16/24 in my deck picture below. I expect Monday morning to look pretty similar with about 10+ inches. The huge difference is that this will blow everywhere by Monday evening as the snow will be very fluffy from the high snow ratios. I do expect rural plowed roads I the LV (Nazareth area) to be drifted shut if the winds pick up as I expect. Again, I emphasize the cold temps. This will be the coldest outbreak we have seen in many years. Say goodbye to many nuisance bugs for next spring. Ice jams on local rivers will become a problem in Feb should we have some moderation with these cold temps but ice jamming will become an issue in the future regardless. The typical frozen pipes, especially outside faucets that have not been properly winterized will burst. Many of drivers will burn through a ton of windshield wiper solution as the salt brine spray will become unbearable as exampled by todays quick melt off and of course car wash will be backed up with long lines on the sunny days. Do not be surprised as many car washes will close down with these cold temps next week too.

So far so good. Right on schedule. Like I said 8 to 12 in. For the wsw. Let's hope it holds. The high snow ratios will be the talk with blowing snow. Drifting maybe an issue. The intense raditional cooling temps subzero for the lv for sure with this storm event now.

that's a damn good punishment Brings tears to my eyes LMAO

this is my first call from a day ago. I am sticking to it so far and so is MT Holly in their discussion this morning. For the LV the totals may be more in line with 8-12 in with the higher snow ratios that I expect. I expect a winter storm watch by 3pm today if the trend in the models keep up at 12Z. The big thing though- blowing snow folks and the biting cold. Many frozen pipes and dead batteries coming next week that is for sure.

not worth it. Just wait until we get 4+ inches unplowed on the road Sunday night into Monday morning. These idiots will wreck everything in site. Many of the inexperienced drivers will basically take out there 40 to 80 grand + trucks and SUVs and drive them like as shown in the misguided commercials and end up wrecking their vehicles thinking they can drive on anything. They are all in for rude awakening come Monday when the Sunday night snows do not melt very well even with salt on the pavement. Tuesday morning will be wreck city as these vehicles also do not drive well on icy snow packed road surfaces too. Snow packed icy intersections will be common in the rural roads. The interstates should be fine but those local backroads that many drivers use for short cuts will be snow packed as the plows will take longer to to get to them. Going to be fun because everything will freeze hard as a rock something we have not seen much of in the last 20+ years. Major Rivers like the Lehigh and others will begin to freeze up, ice jams later?

The CMC has been holding strong and consistent this entire week for Sunday- Monday event, I find that refreshing. The GFS has been floundering and the Euro came back toward the CMC solution. The totals have been all over the place but it appears 6-8+ in may come more into line later tonight IMHO. I would post a thread later tonight after the OZ runs if the start aligning with my thoughts 0f 6-8 in. This would be a WSW event. A watch maybe needed by Sat morning if this scenario comes to fruition. The key will be the high snow ratios too. The storm may move quickly but the ratios and cold in place will make for a winter wonderland.

Just ferrtilzer to keep the BS spreading right?

CMC has been consistent the last few days for 6-8 inches. Its promising for a change

funny you said this. I lived less than .5 mile from the ongoing Hurst fire location back in the 1970's. My parents old house was in the voluntary evac last week in Newhall/Santa Clarita Valley. Many times when I was in high school, I had to water down the roof while helicopters were dumping water on our property and with red fire retardant. Had a huge firewall/break in my backyard. Believe me a can write a book about my life's weather experiences from the climate/weather patterns from Ca to the mid west to the east coast. From tornadoes and 1.5 inch ice storms in Memphis Tn, blizzards and extreme cold in Wisconsin -25 degrees , to dust/fire storms in California and Mojave Death Valley temps in the 120's, to hurricanes in Mississippi, earthquakes and finally all the weather here in eastern PA since the 80's I would get up in the morning in Newhall, shivering from low 40's and in the same afternoon I would then be swimming in my neighbor's pool at 85 to 95 degrees with 50 mph Santa Ana winds blowing and humidities down to 9%. I have experienced rain at the Newhall house and then driving up that afternoon to Gorman/Tejon Pass (less than 25 miles) and getting my car stuck in 4-6 ft snows (not drifts) with snow blowers(not Plows) clearing I-5. I actually have B/W photos of this experience I could post.

I agree, best computer back in the day. I used it for writing my papers in college and spreadsheets in the late 70's to 80's. You had to know DOS. Many of you probably do not even know that these computers were actually all made in Audubon PA- Lower Providence Township. Unfortunately, Commodore Computers went out of business at this location in the 1990's because they ended up polluting the ground water with TCE trying to clean up the computer chips at this facility. Pretty bad-- Superfund site. Spent a lot of time with EPA and Commodore while working in LPT trying to get the groundwater cleaned up. I have worked on environmental cleanups at many superfund sites before retiring--- Blue Mt Palmerton Zinc mine, Heleva Landfill, Dorney and Novak landfill, Rodale Printing, Moyer Landfill, Hebelka Battery,and Caloric facilities https://hackaday.com/2020/09/30/video-exploring-the-abandoned-birthplace-of-the-6502-and-commodore-64/ https://montco.today/2020/10/take-video-tour-of-abandoned-birthplace-of-6502-microprocessor-commodore-64-in-norristown/# https://www.commodore.ca/commodore-history/the-rise-of-mos-technology-the-6502/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOS_Technology

Birds-69 and other posters . Many of you do not know my background and why I am so concerned about the drought. Frankly, I am an expert at soil science, stormwater, planning bioengineering and geology with 45 years experience and education. Here is my background: Michael Siegel is currently retired as an Urban Planner. Previously Michael served as the Director of Community Development for Lower Providence Township. Michael Siegel is a graduate from the University of Memphis with a B.S. degree in Physical Geography with an Environmental and Atmospheric Concentration and a Minor in Geology. Mr. Siegel has also received post-graduate work in Urban Resources Planning at the University of Memphis. He has authored several articles for national land use planning publications and has presented several papers at national and local seminars on topics such stormwater quality and soil bioengineering techniques for wetland construction stormwater basin conversions. Mr. Siegel has received training certifications for hydrology, water quality management, wetland determinations and conservation planning with the Natural Resource Conservation Service and Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. Additionally, Michael has received extensive training for Environmental Law and Regulations from Rutgers University and for Wetland Delineation from Shippensburg University. Mr. Siegel has served as an adviser for several PA Act 167 stormwater management watershed boards for Lehigh County, PA and for the Groundwater and Wellhead Protection Program for Lehigh and Northampton County, PA. Michael previously held the certification of a certified Building Code Official under the Pennsylvania Uniform Construction Code. Michael has been certified as an expert witness for stormwater best management practices from the PA Environmental Hearing Board and was former President of the Little Lehigh Watershed Coalition which helped authored and initiated PADEP’s current stormwater water quality policy. Michael has also previously served on the Lower Macungie Township Zoning Hearing Board, Planning Commission and Environmental Advisory Council. Michael has previously held the position of the Environmental Coordinator and Conservation Resource Specialist with the Lehigh County Conservation District. He has also held several municipal positions such as the Zoning Officer for North Whitehall Township and the Zoning and Planning Administrator for Lower Nazareth Township and Lower Mt. Bethel Township. Furthermore, Michael has served as the Environmental Advisory Council Liaison for Lower Nazareth, Lower Macungie and Lower Mt. Bethel Townships. During this tenure he has authored several zoning ordinances on topics such as riparian buffer areas, lighting, floodplain management, landscaping requirements, architectural features, signage and various other subdivision and land development ordinances and municipal zoning ordinances during his tenure. Michael has co-authored comprehensive plans for Lower Providence Township. Michael was a past member of the Pennsylvania Association of Township Supervisors, a past member of the American and Pennsylvania Planning Associations and a member of the Pennsylvania Association of Environmental Professionals. Finally Michael has received several key awards for planning and smart growth techniques including twice being awarded Pennsylvania Governors Award for Excellence in Planning, the Montgomery County Award for Excellence in Planning, Whitehall Township Environmental Award and the Pennsylvania Horticultural Greening Award.

Yes we are pissing it away but what is worse we are not getting anything in return rain or snow. If we do not get 12+ snow storm by mid Feb or a few heavy rainfall events when the ground is not actually frozen, we are in some real deep shit. The ground water tables are really falling now, causing the water lines to break when the lines are not held up by the unstable soils. Moisture in the soils helps stabilizes them for the winter.

the youngsters in this forum have no concept of dominating and sustainable undesirable climatic patterns like in the late 60's to mid 70's. Winter did not exist for the NE. Yearly droughts were abundant. Because a few idiots that have no science background but have big mouths in the media forum shout at the top of their lungs that it is global warming, they are gullible and all simply wrong. Just wait until the SJS and NJS start colliding again in the deep south with a consistent deeper troughing pattern running up the coast for 10-15 days. Lets see the naysayers get buried in 2-3 feet of snow for weeks on end with below normal temps. . I remember all of the Miller A storm events that have virtually disappeared in the last 10-15 years that were in abundance in the 90's. They will come back. This last winter storm event for the Tn Valley this week was the first time in many years that we had an LP form in SE Texas only to become a southern slider. The trough over us was just too deep with confluence winds. Wait until it relaxes somewhat after MLK. If the LP's keep on forming in SE Texas, all this crap talk about climate warming will go away. Just imagine if this pattern was to stick around for the entire month of Feb?

Hey guys, two major sinkholes in the last two days one in Hanover Township near the LVI airport- took out a bunch of homes and the video below in philly. Its only going to get worse like I said late last week with this drought. The groundwater tables are falling like a rock with frozen topsoil layers https://www.itemfix.com/v?t=kn547p

I agree. When the SE ridge comes back, so will the storms running toward us. Why? The rex block in the SW pac off of California will finally begin to break down after next week too less wildfires in LA too. This will create more troughs in the US and less progressive weather patterns. Lets just hope the cold air sticks around too at the same time First and last call 2-4 inches for the LV if we are really lucky with the snow ratios. Just enough to get the ground white. Time to put this storm to rest for the LV. No drought buster for sure. From Philly west to Harrisburg 6-8 in is a good bet --Warning level for them- advisory for the LV. This storm is a Ohio Valley special. From Indianapolis to Columbus to Washington, they get buried. They deserve it as they have been snow starved for years too. Our turn will becoming around Martin Luther King Day. Cold and dry will become the norm like the December... January 3 I said this same thing yesterday. The confluence will hopefully weaken a little as the LP moves slightly northeast of the projected path possibly creating higher snow ratios for the LV. This storm will also be remembered for ushering into our area the very windy and dry cold weather for the entire week. Freeze up the lakes and river time. Ice jams later in Jan/Feb? Hope people have humidifiers in their houses and a lot of chapstick as baby the static electricity will be unreal. The heating bill will skyrocket after this week. Saturday at 02:27 PM

OH shit, have to bring out the leaf blower again for Saturday. I have literally blown more leaves the last week or so than pixie dust snow. The pixie dust has evaporated away already. Refresh with another .05 in of snow is going to bury me on Saturday morning. I might have to break out the broom.

too many posters have not experienced the late 60's weather patterns with the lack of a decent winter storm pattern, no internet and modelogy with six hour runs.. Nothing surprises me the last 3-5 years with the extremes with these storm events as well. All I can say is be patient. The title of the thread should have been "southern sliders or southern comfort - your choice|" Good food with a good drink can create an atmosphere which is needed in this confluence dominating pattern for the youngsters.

Hell I am even pissed. Its going to snow in Memphis for a 4+ inches warning event and we get jack shite here. These confluence driven winds are killing us literally. I have never seen 3-4 days of blustery winds in a row here in the forecast. To make matters worse, it is cold and dry. The snow on my driveway is literally melting in the sunshine and immediately evaporating away with the dry winds in front of my eyes. Do not even have to use a shovel or salt, just a broom. How bad is this scenario? The salt in the parking lots and driveways are still crystallized and have not turned into brine, thus dragging the salt into all of the buildings/ stores and houses. Have not seen this in many years. I am shocked business have not said much as cleaning companies for carpet and hardwood floors are going to have a banner spring. Thats how dam dry it is. This drought is really becoming an issue again folks. The band aid rains we had after Christmas have done little to nothing to recharge the existing ground water tables and only enabled us to maintain a low stream flow in the non-limestone streams. Now all of these non limestone streams, lakes and ponds are so low, they are freezing up bigtime. I am telling you all that unless we get a 12+ snow storm in our area, this spring is going to be really bad for irrigating and even fishing, not to mention wells drying up. The drought watches will be extended into the spring for sure. Worst of all, sinkholes are going to open again in February with the lowering of the groundwater tables.