Albedoman

first of several squall lines forming.Expect 50 mph gusts any time here in the LV. approaching 2 inches of rain now. The fire hydrant is opened full wide at my house in Macungie

thanks

University of Memphis 1979-1986 Awarded B.S. Degree in Physical Geography with an Environmental Science Concentration and a Geology Minor in 1981. Obtained post-graduate experience in Environmental and Urban Planning Resource Management from 1984 to 1986. Highlights - Masters of Fellowship Award-only awarded to one graduate student in all 17 graduate schools-twice awarded for independent research and high GPA average. President of Gamma Theta Upsilon National Honor Society in 1981. Deans List awarded-1981. Technical Background - Air/Remote Sensing, Quantitative Analysis, GIS Systems, Water Quality Analysis, including Hydrogeological Studies, and Urban Land Use Studies.

this map says it all. Notice the precip over the Poconos/LV. The snowpack will not hold in the precip, its already saturated enough now. The Delaware River will rise ten feet or more in less than 6 hours on Wednesday morning. The tributaries like the Lehigh River will make the flooding even worse as the snow pack will be completely erased. Little or no sublimation will take place as a result of this type of snowmelt. Fog would have really helped us out but the warm SE winds will melt the crap out the snow before evaporation can take place. IMHO, that is a major game changer because several times during a winter season, a good fog will slowly destroy a snow pack. This time no such luck. The soil profile horizons are supersaturated completely from the A Horizon all the way to the C horizons. Springs are really flowing heavily right now (Shale soils especially) as the ground is frozen only a few inches and not in feet like it should be. I expect major flooding. Anyone doubt me, I am a NRCS certified hydrologist. Simply stated, there is no room from water to be stored- its all going to runoff. Better get your waders on.

The idea of a gravity wave Walt is exactly what I was thinking as well. Mixing the winds down through a squall line will yield a tremendous amount of straight line wind damage, especially for those on ridges, hills and deep valleys. The second storm this week on Sat is very concerning as well as their will be absolutely no more stormwater storage in manmade structures and in the soils and anything that falls will be 100% runoff to the rivers. Even a 1.5 in of rain event will be create serious flooding. Another thread should be created for this storm event after Wednesday. The mid atlantic region is experiencing its own atmospheric river right now and the media should be picking up on this fact. Never in my lifetime have I seen so many 2-3+ in rain events occur in less than a month and especially in December and January for our area. If the artic cold was present at each event, we would be talking nearly 100 inches of snow for our region already.

Walt, I am at a loss. Many posters have no clue what will be upon them Wed morning. 45-60 mph winds with 3-4 inches of rain over a 6-12+ inch snow pack in NE and EPA/NJ. I really hope the flooding is curtailed but I have never seen the ground as saturated as it is right now in my 45 years living in the NE US. Posters discussing about 1- 2 inch snows in the major cities will be the least of their worries. I will make the same comparison as this storm being like Issac but not quite as bad as Sandy. I am sure they all remember those storms. The big difference will be the high sustainable SE winds over super supersaturated soils causing wind thrown trees everywhere. The trees are not used to blowing in that direction in the winter, thus their root structure is susceptible to be pulled out of the ground easily too. You add all the diseased ash trees weakened over the last few years from the ash borer in eastern PA and NJ and you have one hell of a down tree problem. Furthermore, the stormwater basins will not absorb any water as they do in the summer as the soils in these basins are clay lined/semi frozen and saturated so they will fill quickly and runoff into the creeks and rivers quickly too. Totally different stormwater reactions and output from a typical summer storm. This storm event might as well be considered a tropical winter storm event that has the possibility of t- storms with straight line wind squall lines and if you add the existing snow melt on saturated grounds will be like receiving 5-6+ inches of rain in a tropical storm. As I said before, this event may not reach the magnitude of the flood of 96, but it will be close. I am not trying be a debbie downer but a realist. This scenario unfolding is not a joking matter over who gets the most snow. The media should be playing this situation up not worrying when the snow plow comes by your street. Its a shame because I will see many posters post how bad the flooding will be on Wednesday . I just hope they get prepared.

we had 5-8 in here in the Lehigh valley in most places. All I can say is that if you try to shovel this stuff, it is super wet. My snow thrower was having troubling handling it. I see many having heart issues if they try to shovel this stuff in the morning. Its like shoveling pure slush. The snow ratio had to be less than 6:1. I have not seen this wet of a snow in five years here. The flakes were pancakes coming down for a few hours. Oh how I dread Tuesday night as the soils are now super saturated and not frozen. Wind thrown trees and huge flooding problems coming our way for sure from this tropical like storm in January. Instability in the soundings talking some thunder too on Tuesday night The water content in tonight's storm event of 6 inches of snow has to be at least one inch or more. Add that to the potential of 2-3+ inches of expected rain and we have record flooding.

Yes yesterday or on Thursday I said they should post winter storm warnings for the LV. I have over 6 inches IMBY here in Macungie. Guess what, as usual, they issue a winter storm warning just now. Too late to stop people from clogging up the roads with accidents but whatever. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 822 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 PAZ061-062-071100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240107T1100Z/ /O.EXB.KPHI.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240107T1100Z/ Lehigh-Northampton- Including the cities of Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton 822 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Lehigh and Northampton. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest accumulations will be in northern and western parts of the counties across the higher elevations. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

any snow we get now today is a bonus however it will be all gone in another 48-72 hours or so. The urban flooding will be unreal wednesday. Next weekend will not help much either for the flooding and again any snow that falls may not stick around. I think my first call was 6-8 in for the LV for tonights snow/sleet event and have stuck with that call even though the LP is sticking its warm tongue at us right now. Would not be surprised if this event becomes a sleetfest. 1-3 in of sleet is a bitch to drive on for sure Ralph, how is the the week of 1/21 holding out? LO LR GEM last night says - here I come baby. As I said weeks ago, that was the magic week where the cold stays put for awhile the SJS sends LP's from the GOM toward our area. Get those shovels greased up baby and the Ben gay ready LMAO

they upped the snow totals to 8 in of snow in the LV in the pin point forecasts. WSW maybe issued in the next update later this morning

my eyes are all focused on the Tuesday/Wed storm. To hell with a 6-8+ in snow event tomorrow that will be all gone by Tuesday evening. Flooding is going to be a huge problem with down trees from the 30+ mph winds everywhere and power outages. Sump pumps will be going full board. MT Holly has been very concerned as well. The old timers know this is a perfect setup for localized flooding of basements. I see Easton possibly being flooded by the Delaware as the major rivers in our area hit flood stage. The Little Lehigh and Perkiomen will be be flooding and dozens roads will be unpassable. Do not know if it will be as bad as 1996 but it will be bad believe me. I am really surprised that no one is really discussing it, but it has the potential of being devastating for our area for flood damage. I having serious concerns that a potential of 15+ inches of precipitable water in the LV in the course of three weeks is not being more discussed in this forum.

geographically, they should issue winter storm watches. The physical geography does NOT lie with the location I-78 but the the south mountain/Blue Mountain range for all precip forecasting Pin point forecasting does not work well above the south mountain range IMHO and is basically useless. Using I-78 as a weather demarcation line does not work in the LV because the interstate divides the LV in half going west to east instead of north and south at it lowest elevation. There is no room for error. Once it starts snowing on the northeast side of South Mountain range near MACUNGIE, all forecasted snow accumulations are off and stack up quickly. Want proof, SIMPLY ask a Penndot plower. They sit at the top of the hills everywhere.

I made the first call of 6-8" with lollipops yesterday to my friends. Sticking to it until I see the the NAM tomorrow night which could change the amounts

Winter storm watches maybe issued by Thursday evening for LV north, especially if the NAM agrees by the 18Z runs on Thursday. Every LR model demonstrates satisfying winter storm warning criteria for the LV the last day or so. Confidence level is somewhat high at above 60% too. Looks promising but I will still rely on the NAM runs on Thursday night to agree with the Euro runs on Friday morning for a WS warning to be issued by Friday 18Z runs. Accumulations look to be 8+ inches on the clown maps but meeting at least 6 in on the total positive snow map is somewhat satisfying in these LR models. I will go with the latter until the NAM shows its cards. The NAM/HRRR is basically the River card in this poker game involving a winter storm event to be issued for the LV. Once that card is turned over, we will all know where we stand.

I said this yesterday to Iceman. its expected. Wait until Wednesday Evening when the the NAM runs come in. Then things will adjust to reality. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion Albedoman replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region 5 days out wild card outcomes coming up now in this run for some of these models. Model chaos going ballistic as the minimal PAC buoy info is now being fed into the models which is creating topsy turvy models expectations. . Will correct itself by Thursday morning. Cross your fingers and stay calm as even the Euro is known to do this.

5 days out wild card outcomes coming up now in this run for some of these models. Model chaos going ballistic as the minimal PAC buoy info is now being fed into the models which is creating topsy turvy models expectations. . Will correct itself by Thursday morning. Cross your fingers and stay calm as even the Euro is known to do this.

lets wait for the NAM run on Wed evening. The potential for accumulating snow is there for sure but WSW criteria will be hard to achieve even in Allentown. We first want to get a better picture for the exact transfer location (sweetspot) nd HP energy in Quebec. The we can talk how much. 48 hours from now will tell us everything on the NAM

I agree with your analysis. The biggest issue IMHO for this event --- if the snow falls Saturday afternoon into the evening as currently shown, the ground melting will cave quickly. I can easily see us reaching a foot if that happens by Sunday mid morning especially if dendritic growth becomes expansive. and if any frontogenesis occurs too. I will assume that the moisture content of the snowflake itself will be very high too. That will lead to serious medical issues throughout the region as many are not used to shoveling wet heavy snow in the last 3-4 years because of the light in moisture content with snowfalls in the past La Nina years. I too rely on the positive snow depth change totals in the 5 day LR models then work up from there based on the aforementioned factors. The NAM models as well as the HRRR models will fine tune and sniff out the final snow accumulations, usually with 36-48 hours of the event . In my past years forecasting , I alway relied on the LR Euro at 5 days and if the SR NAM backed the totals too, it was pretty a dam accurate forecast for snowfall events.

for shitz and giggle Old Henry Margusity is throwing out this snow map. C'mon man, the storm has not even shown up on the NAM models yet

Walter Drag, I find this really unusual that Henry would post such a map in a topsy turvy weather pattern we are in right now. There is no set weather pattern at this time This amount of snow he is depicting is not even on the NAM 84 hours yet? This type of snow hype is nonsensical. Whatever happened to realistic forecasting?

thanks just want to give you guys a heads up

walt as the old timer around here, I absolutely agree with you. The consequences of a 8-12 in snow then a 2-4 inch follow up rain event would be disastrous to the Lehigh Valley. I have recorded over 11 inches of rain in December already with another five inches of precipitable water in wet snow and rain hitting the ground will produce widespread riverine flooding and not just local streams. The karst ghost lakes have also appeared in the karst areas of the LV with roads still under water in places three days after last weeks rain. This is the fist time I have see them in over five years and they usually appear after the ground has been frozen. The ground is not frozen yet which is a real concern and justifiably so. So what does this mean? The Delaware, Raritan, Schuylkill and Passaic rivers will be flooding big time if the second storm becomes a firehose. All the media crap of an atmospheric river present in California will be nothing to what we have experienced the last 45 days here in eastern PA/NJ with flooding rains and the the what the models are depicting. This is absolutely historical in nature and you are spot on by your synopsis. In my 45+ years of meteorological experience, I have only seen such a flooding scenario open up like what is being modeled and that was January 96 and believe me if this scenario unfolds as the models are hinting , we will see a 96 redux of this historical flooding situation again in our region. Many of the posters in these forums were in diapers or not even born in 96 and have no idea how bad the flooding can be. I will be watching closely believe me

Posted on Dec 27 for those who are dejected and wishing to cancel winter based on the latest model runs do not fret ---- I am an historical meteorologist . You may ask what the hell is that? I rely on my personal weather pattern experiences over the last 50 years since I have been old enough to enjoy the knowledge of weather since I was 12 years old. I learned much weather from uncle who was the regional head forecasting meteorologist for NOAA (NWS) in the western US. I also was an air traffic controller in the Navy and graduated with a BS physical geography degree with a concentration in atmospheric science(Before many meteorological schools were even around). I do not rely solely LR daily model runs until the storms are within 48-72 hours period. Anything else is simply conjecture. I only rely on LR models to help establish the future temp/precip ranges and the possibilities of changes in the long term weather patterns. That is it. I was using my personal experiences and senses in the early 70's to 80's when there were no daily 8 hour model runs and the only models were spit out in a past weekly bulletin on the weeks previous storm events. I spent more time analyzing the storm patterns such as neutral, el nino and la nina patterns instead of relying just on LR computer model ensembles. Weather has been boiled down to a simple game of statistical chances by using computer model ensembles. Right or wrong, I side with past history Right now I see nothing but cold polar air bottled up in northern Canada with pacific cold fronts flowing zonally across the country Alberta Canada is where we get our cold air from except for an occasional backdoor cold front. There is nada coming from either direction right now. The southern jet stream is buckling but the northern stream will not come down into mid USA period to phase and deepen the lows. Until we get an LP over Alberta forming a clipper bringing that locked up polar air in Canada to the central US and introducing a potential pattern change, there is nothing we can do but watch models kick the potential 3-6 in snow events further into the 10-15 day time frame. WE must have sustainable cold- WE HAVE NONE. The potential of a 2-4 or 3-6 in snow event keeps showing up during the Jan 9-11 time frame but that is all it is. When I see it show up on the NAM at 36 hours- thats doable IMHO. My past personal history for those who believe in what I do, compares this year to 1993 where we had a crappy el nino winter 2-4 inches of snow until late February where we did get some accumulating snow event followed by the March superstorm which was a triple phaser. The el nino years below in a sample ranking chart . Please note 1958 has been thrown in the rankings for your forum too in February. (Morgantown blizzard) The winters are definitely back loaded for heavy snow sure in these years with some cold. It is just that we usually get cold sustainable cold in neutral years from the passage of continuous clippers as the el nino pattern is dying-- last gasp storm event before going into a neutral year. Remember how the severe cold in early 1994 set in that was attributable from weakening neutral year with the combination of MT Pinatubo eruption? We have not had a neutral winter in a long time. 3+ years. Lets see what the second to third week of January can throw at us? Yes once this event is in Wednesday evening's run on the NAM, I will be on board. The fire hose scenario afterwards would be be terrible as far as basement flooding and local stream flooding. We need no more rain period for two weeks. Cetronia Rd near my house is still under water after 4 days and there is no creek within 1.5 of this area that is flooded. Natural closed depressions in the farm fields are abundantly full of standing water. That is why you see so much geese flying north. They love standing water in corn/soybean fields in Karst geology areas that are not frozen. Give the freezing temps now please.

hell I am still in the game for the Jan 7-11 storm event. 2-4 in of snow is still on the table in the LR even though it keeps disappearing every other run. May not be much of anything but it is still something. I compare this possible snow event to like a typical Pearl Harbor day snow event - just a month late

what the hell-- giving up already? Have a brewski man. The party will start after the third week in January as I have stated the past three weeks or so. MY past history with this type of pattern indicates that the cold air must get back to Canada by Valentines day. When the clippers come in succession, so does the sustainable cold air. It will take time. Patience man patience.