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Albedoman

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  1. Albedoman
    The pattern will have abrupt change by Thanksgiving like I have been saying for at least a month or two. I expect moderate rains by the end of next week and then bam a nice little snow event. This mornings GFS run is in agreement. Time to shutoff the outside faucets and rake up the rest of the leaves by next Wednsday as the extreme dinural temp regime we have been in will be gone as well as the high in the 60's. I a mstill seeing a Christmas snow event too. The cold air is starting to be in place as the storms form to the SW in the models. Its a chance LOL
  2. Albedoman
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  4. Albedoman
    the drought guy wants you to understand how bad this drought is--- Green Lake reservoir which is Phillys primary water source- yesterdays picture. Why a drought emergency has not been declared is unknown- what is wrong with these govt folks" I was not shitting when I said it was the lowest level I have ever seen
  5. Albedoman
    .17 here in macungie. Barely over .10. Dry begats dry. Now the Chinook/Santa Ana NW winds kick in the next few days with more red flag warning/fire watches. 30 mph dry NW winds will ring out what little moisture we got last night. This rain we got just kept the dust down and thats it . I am waiting for the end of next week when this stubborn pattern finally breaks down and we more constant rain events and even have chances of snow showers.
  6. Albedoman
    No way do we even get .10 of an inch of rain here in the LV. The outside humidity cannot even climb above 70% at the house. All this shower will do will keep the leaf dust down for the townships to collect leaves. really pityful..
  7. Albedoman
    DRBC is holding a hearing to consider issuing a drought emergency. The last time this happened 2016-2017. Salt water intrusion into the Delaware River is becoming an issue
  8. Albedoman
    OK I said this almost a month ago- lets see how I am doing? 1. First measurable rain event in the last two months for Sunday so close I said intially on Tuesday this will "try" to break the drought 2. More rain events on tap after Sunday for late next week - this will help end these dying cold front pattern that we have been experiencing. 3. Snow events are now showing up on the LR models for our area just before Thanksgiving. 4. A significant Blocking pattern is attempting to set up which will defintely throw some cold air our way is now showing up on the LR range models I am a firm believer of historical patterns for weather and just do not dwell on strictly on LR teleconnected modelogy like many younger people do. I grew up and forecasted in a period where computers were not the cure all for LR forecasting. They simply did not exist even for the pro's . This current drought pattern setup we are in is more extreme but it all boils down to the same- NE Blocking and more good snow events patterns are now setting up for late November into December better than we have seen in 20+ years.
  9. Albedoman
    want to know how bad this drought is? For Mike Gortz this township alert notice should be incoporated into the MT Holly discusssions on how dry it really is: The township will no longer pickup leaves? Why, the chance of dust fires with the equipment. Folks, it is bad and I was not kidding about why I have been harping about a pretty serious drought the last six months for our area. I saw in the LR weather patterns back in the early 70's when I was kid being taught by my retired uncle who was the Regional western meteorologist director for NOAA in Boise Idaho as he explained these typical weather pattern setups for the eastern US. He allowed me to see the computer runs from Maryland back then of the AVN and MRF. Yes, I have been around. I also used the AVN and or MRF while I was an air traffic controller in the Navy all the time. Back then, they were used as guidance with observed data not as religiously as they are now for forecasting as they are today with the EURO and GFS. From Lower Macungie Township Alert Sent On: 11/05/2024 11:12:47 AM EST Due to the extreme dry conditions, leaf collection is severely impacted this year in regards to the level of timely service we are able to provide and the dust it is creating. We continue to collect our normal routes, however major delays (2-3 weeks in some cases) are being experienced. Dust levels generated by vacuum collections are extreme and beyond our control. The dust is also impacting our equipment and is generating down time. We understand the inconvenience this may cause and unfortunately, we remain unable to inform you of when we will be able to reach your roadway. Please continue to place your leaves at the curb and we ensure you that they will be collected; however, until we get rain, there may be several weeks between collection times. We appreciate your patience during this very unusual time.
  10. Albedoman
    Right on time, as predicted in my forecast last month. I said the 15th a little early. I am still going with my original thoughts, moderate rains after mid Novmeber, a 1-3 inch snow event around Thanksgiving and then the arctic air invades after Dec 7
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  12. Albedoman
    well PADEP finally got off its ass this afternoon and placed most areas under a drought watch. The drought warning counties should have been extended to Lehigh and Montgomery counties as well as several areas in those couties are already have montoring wells at emergency levels.
  13. Albedoman
    same here in Macungie. All this shower did is form dust concrete on the car again. Car washes will be busy for the next few days, as everyone keeps using water. Another near 80 degree day when the sun pops out this afternoon will get irrigation methods going today as many thought this shower would be more. This social cycle of having clean cars green lawns etc will drain our water supplies so dam fast as PADEP is oblivious to the public demands when it comes to using water.
  14. Albedoman
    The adrenaline rush I cannot feel right now. Have a upper respitory bug from all the pollen and dust and I have been coughing my ass off. First time I have been sick in 5 years. I actually turned on the AC this evening as some idiot is burning in the neighborhood and the overnight lows will not get even out of the mid 60's with cloudy skies holding in the heat. If I was betting man, we will hit near 80 again tomorrow even with cool frontal passage. What really concerns me is that a drought emergency will be issued for many local water authorties in the next few weeks as those idiots in PADEP will not get off their ass to issue a drought warning. I have dozens of people tell me in my municipal line of work, including well drillers that they never have seen the creeks as dry as they are right now in the LV, and these people are in their 70's.
  15. Albedoman
    drizzle is better than nothing I guess. Like I said on Sunday, the rain events will start showing up on the models by mid November and sure enough the 6Z GFS is showing some moderate rainafall events near the 11/15 time frame. However, many additional streams in eastern PA will go dry before drought warnings are actually issued in PA in the upcoming weeks. Spoke to LCA officials last night at the public meeting in Lower Mac. They are really concerned about the drought situation now and are about to make a major announcement in the next week or so to conserve water in the metro area of Lehigh County as the monitoring wells are dropping like a rock and the Little Lehigh is going dry like in 2017. PADEP needs to wake up as the local municipal water authorities are bypassing the PADEP idiotic criteria for issuing drought watches/warnings and the water authorities are doing it themselves by informing the public. PADEP needs to stick to just enforcing the environmental regulations and not forecasting weather/streambase flow conditions. The experts like USGS should be issuing these drought watches/warnings, not a PADEP flunkies sitting behind a desk twiddling their thumbs
  16. Albedoman
    more links to drought history https://www.lehighcountyauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/LCA-Drought-LittleLehighMonitoring-031317.pdf https://www.mcall.com/2017/03/13/expert-more-monitoring-devices-needed-to-solve-little-lehigh-creek-mystery/
  17. Albedoman
    https://www.lehighcountyauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LCA-WeeklyReport-DroughtMonitoring-Dashboard-101624.pdf
  18. Albedoman
    I too want to be fair as well. I am not just some guy who likes to post crap. see below link We have had many historic droughts since the early 1960's in the Lehigh Valley. In fact, these droughts were so severe in the late 60's that the USGS did a water supply study called the "wood study" that was infamous in PA. I have that study and moderate droughts are a usually on a 5-10 year event for us. Droughts have been more noticable the last decade because the LV population and water consumption demand is up big time since the 1990's. Furthermore, more water/soda/ even beer bottling companies are now located in the LV than anywhere else in the country. The quality of the water speaks for itself as many of you drink Deer Park, Niagra, Pierre, Dasani etc which is bottled from the same groundwater/ Little Lehigh Creek source as my house in the Breinigsville/Fogelsville area. Bottled water is a huge business in the LV and many of the spring water sources are along the Blue Mt range and from limestone rivers/wells located in the LCA area of the LV . I am a certified and professional hydrologist from the Natural Resource Conservation Service. This current drought is not a 1000 year event. Actually this drought thus far is more like a 50-100 year event. However, I have cried drought the past six months because in 2017, the Little Lehigh went dry in the drought and I have now seen the similar weather patterns in 2002, 2017 and now in 2024. Even though many think snow will non existent this year, I fully disagree. All it takes is one good low pressure setup. This stubborn high pressure will eventually break down and when it does, off to the races with lows coming from the GOM. If I have to say anything, we have had complete unreliability with weather patterns from the ENSO which has been in a disaray ever since 2018. Back to back La Nina patterns, no true netral year and piss poor El Nino setup have sent LR forecasting in chaos. We simply need to have the low pressures forming in the 4 corners area and along the gulf of Mexico again. Throw in a bunch a bunch of polar arctic fronts and Alberta clipppers and boom- a normal winter again. https://www.lehighcountyauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LCA-WeeklyReport-DroughtMonitoring-Dashboard-101624.pdf
  19. Albedoman
    I ahve a perfect video clip for this map
  20. Albedoman
    I have been in this forum since the 1990s under various names. The busting on me for the drought has only been in the last few years as we have unusual patterns with weather extremes from 2019 to right now. Yea keep the busting going guys as this old fart is loving the challenges and comments. Drowning one month dry as hell the next two months. Little snow last year (except at my house 35 inches highest in the state) to tons of snow like in 2020 with 30+ inches in a single snow event. This drought however I could see a mile a way with the same la nina dying pattern as the early 2000's. At this point all my thoughts are not with the current drought situation even though it is really severe but what will happen in Dec -Feb of 2025. The last drought like this was destroyed by real nice Noreaster events as in the video below
  21. Albedoman
    I have been calling for this severe drought since June. No longer a laughing matter right guys? Once the limestone streams go dry, all hell will break loose with PADEP. I awaiting PA Fish Commission to be discussing the fish loss in uppper reaches of the main trout streams real soon in the media. Just about every municipality in the LV has declared a burn ban and the LV is even in listed in the fire watch areas for the entire nation. I promise you that tons of landscapers and residents will be watering later this week when the temps are in the 80's agin, sucking down those groundwater levels big time and drying up base flows in the smaller streams. Tons of landscaping trees, bushes and new lawns are being established right now only by irrigation. Golf courses are being watered big time too since the sunny warm weather is giving them tons of customers. Car wash businesses are booming after a brief sprinkle in the past week as the cars are so dirty from the pollen and dust that has turned to concrete on the cars surface from the sprinkles. I still believe the extreme drought pattern will break by mid November and we should get some moderate rainfall events. I do expect a nice winter storm around Thanksgiving of a few inches of snow as this is typical of this weather pattern. By the way, the first rainfall event of over .25 in with even a moderate breeze will bring down the leaves all at one time. The leaf piles will be huge this year. By the way, at 3 pm today, the dewpoint was 20 degrees- just unreal how dry the air is and how the forest floors are literally at tinderbox right now.
  22. Albedoman
    MY election day storm is back LOL
  23. Albedoman
    That soil moisture map sucks. Soil moisture does not follow the Delaware River. That is a fact. Everyone is in the zero percentile right now except the higher elevations as was evident in my post weeks ago about a backhoe near my yard digging 4-6 feet down and the soil was powder
  24. Albedoman
    woo hoo sprinkles showing up on the radar. Might get enough to spot the car windows with concrete pollen and dust. By the way NJ is in a drought watch However PADEP has their heads buried in the sand. So those hydrologists are out of their minds. They will not be satisfied until Green Lane and Blue Marsh lake reservoirs are empty and the Delaware River is full of salt water. Local municipal water companies are already requesting the public to conserve
  25. Albedoman
    The NE High over southern Canada will not move period. Every cold front that comes through disspates as it approaches this stubborn HP. The GOM is shutoff from moisture being transported in reaching the fronts from SE. The hurricanes and the southern jet stream are steering th low pressures systems in a zonal pattern right off the Carolina coasts and not allowing them to come NE along the east coast. We are stuck in the middle of all of this. I see no changes until an Alberta clipper moves this current HP out of the way or a Hurricane comes our way. Either way, I see no precip until this happens.
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