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Albedoman

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  1. Albedoman
    call it whatever the hell you want for the ENSO, but if we do not get substantial rains in the next 3-4 weeks we are in some deep shite. When I say susbsantial, I mean 3-6 inches spread out in a course of 2-3 weeks. The ground is frozen now in some places, Pure runoff does not help as the only benefit would be to hold off the salt water intrusion into the Delaware a few weeks longer. We need the ground to warm up, which we will get in the next few days but the 12th storm event is an absolute joke as a precip maker right now in the models. Sorry but .5 in rains for a few days will not cut it for some droughgt relief unless we became Seattle again, which I do not see with this progressive upper air flow at all My Christmas storm is slowly going away to the dumpster fire after every model run. WE cannot even squeeze out a good rainmaker of a noreaster. All I can say is that we are not the only ones being screwed in this crappy weather pattern. The Midwest, specially north of the Mason Dixon line is way too warm and dry. Without a good snowpack there, were are really screwed here. Any clipper that reaches here will be DOA without moisture. Flurries and snow shower will not cut it. The winners for snow- Great Lakes. Just when their feet of snow melts next week, they get another round. Will the lakes ever freeze up again in my lifetime LMAO? That pece of siberian high that has remained in Russa for the last 3 years needs to get its ass parked right over southern Cannada for 15 days.
  2. Albedoman
    This drought is rapidly becoming pretty damn serious folks Water supply managers for the Delaware River Basin this week declared an “emergency,” setting the stage for further action if dry conditions persist. The Delaware River Basin Commission declared the “water supply emergency” during its quarterly meeting Thursday. The declaration along with two special permits that were also approved allow the commission to coordinate operations of regional reservoirs, diversion from outside the 42-county basin area and Delaware River flow objectives. The last time commission officials declared such an emergency was in 2016, spokeswoman Elizabeth Brown told lehighvalleylive.com. “We’re essentially getting the table set if conditions continue to deteriorate,” she said. Despite recent precipitation, the potential is still there to reach basin-wide drought operating conditions that would trigger the action authorized Thursday. All but two of the counties in the basin covering communities in Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania are under drought watches or warnings declared independently of Thursday’s approvals. Those two counties are Lackawanna and Wayne in Pennsylvania. “DRBC urges all water users to fully cooperate with Basin state water use restrictions and conservation measures and encourages all Basin water users to maximize water efficiency wherever possible,” the commission said in a news release following Thursday’s approvals. A basin-wide drought declaration would occur if available water storage drops below a certain level in three New York City reservoirs — Cannonsville, Pepacton and Neversink — located in the Delaware River’s headwaters in New York. As of Thursday morning, storage was 25.9 billion gallons above a drought watch. “Over 14 million people rely on the shared waters of the Delaware River Basin,” Executive Director Kristen Bowman Kavanagh states in the release. “During times of drought, the DRBC’s primary responsibility is to conserve and protect water supplies.” The commission is responsible for protecting water supply throughout the Delaware River Basin, including by managing the flow of the Delaware River to repel the salt front of the Delaware River Estuary to avoid fouling drinking water supplies for Philadelphia and millions of other people. “The special permits approved today will set in motion management actions that will maintain access to clean water for the entire Basin, should conditions worsen,” stated New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Interim Commissioner Sean Mahar. Thursday’s approvals would, in part, reduce Delaware River flow objectives at Montague, New Jersey (supported by releases from the New York City Delaware River Basin reservoirs) and at Trenton (supported by releases from the Beltzville and Blue Marsh reservoirs in eastern Pennsylvania). That’s if the dry conditions continue. A separate special permit approved would add water releases from Lake Wallenpaupack and New York’s Mongaup system to assist in meeting the Delaware River flow objectives at Montague and Trenton. As of Thursday morning, the salt front was located at river mile 85.4, which is just south of the Philadelphia Airport. This is roughly 16.4 miles upstream of its normal location for this time of year, but still 24.6 miles downstream from key drinking water intakes.
  3. Albedoman
    Still sticking to the Christmas storm. Been saying that since Ocober. We all need a nice Christmas day perid storm event for all the shit we have had to put up with the last 2 to 3 years of no t storms, the unbearble heat, drought and of course no fricking good snow events . We deserve a foot of snow for Christmas morning.
  4. Albedoman
    The upcoming pattern change on the 10-12th reverts back to the SOS. This drought is really going to be bad come January. The low flows in the limestone geology streams is beginning to freeze up the normally warm spring fed streams for the lack of a good flowing base flow. The trout population is literally being destroyed. I can only imagine how low the ground water table will be in February and how wells will dry up in the middle of winter. Even with a major snow event and with the ground frozen, no recharging of the groundwater table will take place for months. The latest moderate rains only put out the the chances of wild fires and did nothing for ground water table. I hope the storm on the 12th drops 2+ of rain or we are screwed as the forecast looks dryer than popcorn fart until around Christmas
  5. Albedoman
    pixie dust fairy lives on. In the donut hole now
  6. Albedoman
    I give up. The models are so wishy washy because of the evolving new LP pattern trying to setup after the 10th. I just hope that this new pattern opens the door for some GOM /Atantic Ocean moisture to get embedded into these progressive flow LP's and be able to spin up some noreasters our way. At this point, I will be happy to settle for some rain just to get the ground wet before it really freezes. This drought will not relinquesh its ugly head. The dusting of snow only hinders wildfire production as the creek levels are really dropping now in my area. Back into the 50's and 60's next week will not help either. People will be washing their cars big time with the ton of salt being dumped on the road tomorrow for the 1-2" snow squalls. Snow squall warnings will likely be issued tomorrow and your cell phones will be banging out the audible alerts Just hoping for a new wet pattern setup after the 20th and loaded to bear with continual snow events. A nice Christmas gift after this shitty summer and fall right Red Sky?
  7. Albedoman
    https://www.lowermac.com/DocumentCenter/View/2157/PRESS-RELEASE--Lehigh-County-Burn-Ban
  8. Albedoman
    C'mon man give me abreak now - plz let me enjoy my 1-2 inches of snow this week LMAO while we are still under a burn ban and drought. Until the 4 corners LP's start forming we are not going to get moisture laden storms around here but just constant clipper snows. Yes, my predicted cold air has come to fruition but the moisture still is lagging for good snow production storm events. I am really hoping for a Christmas week block buster snow event. The chances appear to be real good. The Great Lakes snow machine is also helping to keep the temps down for our area as the air coming over the lakes is not being modified like last year with unfrozen Great lakes
  9. Albedoman
    woopee a dusting LOL
  10. Albedoman
    my October 13th post drought guy here- saying that this drought will be broken by Thanksgiving with a heavy rain storm followed by a light snowfall event for the LV area. After an initial few weeks of cold/rainy and maybe even snowy weather into late November, the typical rain to snow precip pattern will return by the second week in December with decent cold snaps and maybe even some polar air reaching us by Christmas. Then the flood gates will be opened for some major snow events the rest of the winter with constant refreshed clippers - similar to the winter of 2003 after a blistering drought in 2002. ... Well , this has played out very nicely for me This mornings GFS run is spot on. Hope it stays like this
  11. Albedoman
    NO way. I am sticking to my original forecast last month for the upcoming time period- after the moderate rainfall events this past week, with a light snow event that I predicted, the flood gates open up for a period of some nice cold air. I am still calling for a snow accumaltion event during the Pearl harbor day period 12/6- 12/9 as I reierated last week as the pattern changes and reloads. A good meterologist sticks to his original thoughts- I have been burned too many times changing my forecast on a single model run. For those who even care? My usual forecast prediction method for thew last 30+years- the 10 day GFS sniffs out the potential weather pattern changes, the Euro/CMC confirms those changes from 7- 10 days out for the potential pattern change, sometimes attached with a significant storm event. The Euro then confirms the potential pattern change/storm event it 48-72 hours out. Between 36- 48 hours, I rely on the Meso's, especially the NAM, RGEM and HRRR's with 36 hours for total precip/wind info. Chaos playtime on the models with major unreliability issues usually occurs on the GFS and Euro between 4-8 days out with upheavel and reversals sometimes noted. This is the result of unreliable and lack of data info from the few ocean buoys in the western Pacific being ingested into the models. When the potential storm event/pattern change finally comes on shore usually at 3-5 days out, the LR models tighten up and come into some type of agreement. Then its off to the races.
  12. Albedoman
    no moisture , no snow- let him honk. He is only exciting because his hometown in Ky will get snow while we still are moisture strarved The Apps and Allegany mts will suck out the moisture big time before it hits us as well as the real winner will be the lake effect snow areas. I am still counting on one small acumalating snow event by Dec 7 th and a nice Christmas day major snowstorm event
  13. Albedoman
    MY next big prediction LMAO -----Dec 6-7 first 6+ in snow for many in this region in two years . Always a Pearl harbor day snow storm event. Enjoy the sunny and 50 degree weather in the next three days- it will be short lived
  14. Albedoman
    been snowing for the last few hours here in Macungie. Sticking on the ground in the hills
  15. Albedoman
    The NAM really pinpoints the elevation snowfall forecast in S. Mtn ridges in western Lehigh County and eastern Berks. Spot on again from three days ago. White rain city coming. his Afternoon Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tonight A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then a chance of rain between midnight and 2am, then rain and snow likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow before noon, then rain and snow. High near 37. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Night A chance of rain and snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
  16. Albedoman
    The 6Z Nam clearly depicted this as an elevation snow event for tomorrow morning and for verifying my forecast.
  17. Albedoman
    I trust my own outlook. So far spot on right now
  18. Albedoman
    still sticking with this as my first call 13 hours ago. The 12Z models for GFS and CMC pretty much back me up. Lots of white rain.
  19. Albedoman
    2-3 inches are my intial thoughts for the LV proper , more around S Mt area and Blue Mt areas (3-5 inches). Strictly elevation driven snow accumaltions . For example, driving through Shimerville on Rt 29 and toward Bear Creek resort , I see some good accumalting snow. Same goes with driving through Wind Gap, Lehigh Tunnel and Rt 309. Big wet heavy snow flakes half dollar size to pancake size-white rain). The streets will cave in the LV for accumalation if it snows hard enough in the early morning and toward sunrise. Poconos 12+ in around Tobyhanna a good bet. Winter storm watches issued for the Pocono area by morning Advisories everywhere else after Euro run
  20. Albedoman
    wow, the runs are even better than I thought. As I stated last month, the pattern change will usher in the deep freeze around Dec 7th after this snow event. The Christmas snow event time frame is still not dead Red Sky. Keep the precip coming , as the drought might be ended by Christmas
  21. Albedoman
    Hot damn, my 40 day forecast is coming to fruition. Moderate rains then a light snow event for Thanksgiving time frame. Whats wrong guys, have heard you naysayers lately saying how my forecast form October was a bunch of sh*t. I just hope we get the rain.
  22. Albedoman
    Right on time, as predicted in my forecast last month. I said the 15th a little early. I am still going with my original thoughts, moderate rains after mid Novmeber, a 1-3 inch snow event around Thanksgiving and then the arctic air invades after Dec 7 November 4 664 replies tropics heavy rainfall (and 5 more)
  23. Albedoman
    Thaks Mike but a case in point? what if numerous lighting strikes were around? Would that enhance the probability of rapid fire spread as well? I know red flag warnings are for high wind but what about other natural weather features like lighting have any effect on issuing a red flag warning. It almost seems that the ignition sources and their amounts must have a play in this somewhere for issuing red flag warnings.
  24. Albedoman
    from the drought guy. This a first for me guys please foward this to MT Holly. How dry is it? Enough low humidity to intiate spontaneous combustion. Red flag warnings really should be issued again MT Holly. This came as an alert to me a few minutes ago. Hello Lower Macungie Township Residents, The yard waste recycling center located at 5536 Indian Creek Road will be closed today, Friday November 15th. The mulch pile is currently emitting spontaneous flames and in order to maintain public safety, the site will be closed for the day. We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience.
  25. Albedoman
    Bring on the flakes for Black friday
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