Albedoman

You are hearing this prediction from me first- mark it down. The potential for major ice jams along the Delaware, Lehigh Schuylkill ,Susquehanna riverine systems with major flooding will be in the media real soon. Once we get a week of 45+ highs in these areas with some major rains of 2-4 inches places, like Trenton, just north of Belvidere/ Portland areas on the Delaware, Kline and Adams Island on the Lehigh are going to be the hotspots for flood damage. I have seen before, we will see this time too.

down to 5 degrees at 10:45. heading for another night below zero

First and last call 2-4 inches for the LV if we are really lucky with the snow ratios. Just enough to get the ground white. Time to put this storm to rest for the LV. No drought buster for sure. From Philly west to Harrisburg 6-8 in is a good bet --Warning level for them- advisory for the LV. This storm is a Ohio Valley special. From Indianapolis to Columbus to Washington, they get buried. They deserve it as they have been snow starved for years too. Our turn will becoming around Martin Luther King Day. Cold and dry will become the norm like the December 20th-25th time period. January 3 The upcoming pattern change on the 10-12th reverts back to the SOS. This drought is really going to be bad come January. The low flows in the limestone geology streams is beginning to freeze up the normally warm spring fed streams for the lack of a good flowing base flow. The trout population is literally being destroyed. I can only imagine how low the ground water table will be in February and how wells will dry up in the middle of winter. Even with a major snow event and with the ground frozen, no recharging of the groundwater table will take place for months. The latest moderate rains... December 5, 2024 I have been harping on the Enso going neutral and about how this winter could be like bitter cold and dry like 94, which I was right. The next biggie-- a major snow event in and around Valentines day in this current pattern regime. I am not really concern at this time about the potential for a significant ice storm for next week as the saving grace is that the moisture is not around to produce .5 to 1" ice accumulations.

I said this Tuesday on the central pa forum The current drought is ignored in the winter as these PADEP hydrologists sit comfortably in their heated offices and never get out to see the real world. They rely on inaccurate USGS gauges during frozen conditions and other BS modeling for drought that are with unproven techniques. Tell them to go drill a monitoring well and they will always say what for? The stupidity burns my friends. The current snow pack contains snowflakes with little moisture content which does nothing for the drought. Best evidence in which the hydrologists ignore is the moisture content of the snowpack. My proof? Look how yellow the grass was even before the latest snow cover. The grass has now been covered with some low moisture fluffy snow but in these desert like humidities the last month , sublimation has literally destroy the moisture content of the snow cover and when the grass is exposed again, the grass will be even more yellow- actually brown. But they continue to sit in their offices dreaming of a flood somewhere. Thanks for agreeing with me.

Right now, Philadelphia is on track to set a new record for driest January on record, assuming less than 0.06" of liquid-equivalent falls before month's end (which right now, looks likely). Allentown (0.02" margin) and Mount Pocono (0.10" margin) are also in the running. The drought is not gone folks and has been made 100% worse for groundwater supplies.

MT Holly- temps were at -1 from midnight and actually rose to 3 degrees around 3 am until 6 am when the temps dropped again dropped to -3 after the skies cleared out. Radiational cooling is a huge factor the last few nights in the local deeper valleys. Ice fog was not as bad too.

I found the verification

I have not seen -8 anywhere at KABE. Please verify Imperial (Metric) Date Time (est) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Temperature (ºF) Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) Pressure Precipitation (in) Air Dwpt 6 hour altimeter (in) sea level (mb) 1 hr 3 hr 6 hr Max. Min. 22 15:35 SW 3 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -5.8 32% 30.48 0.0 22 15:15 SW 6 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -4 35% 12 30.48 0.0 22 14:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -7.6 29% 30.48 0.0 22 14:35 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -5.8 32% 30.48 0.0 22 14:15 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -5.8 32% 30.48 0.0 22 13:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -5.8 32% 30.49 0.0 22 13:35 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -5.8 32% 30.49 0.0 22 13:15 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 17.6 -4 38% 30.5 0.0 22 12:55 NW 6 10.00 Fair CLR 17.6 -4 38% 10 30.52 0.0 22 12:35 NW 3 10.00 Fair CLR 17.6 -5.8 35% 30.51 0.0 22 12:15 W 3 10.00 Fair CLR 17.6 -5.8 35% 30.52 0.0 22 11:55 NW 7 10.00 Fair CLR 15.8 -5.8 37% 7 30.52 0.0 22 11:35 N 9 10.00 Fair CLR 14 -4 44% 3 30.52 0.0 22 11:15 N 9 10.00 Fair CLR 14 -4 44% 3 30.52 0.0 22 10:55 NW 8 10.00 Fair CLR 12.2 -4 48% 2 30.52 0.0 22 10:35 NW 7 10.00 Fair CLR 12.2 -4 48% 3 30.53 0.0 22 10:15 NW 9 10.00 Fair CLR 12.2 -4 48% 1 30.53 0.0 22 09:55 NW 8 10.00 Fair CLR 10.4 -4 52% -1 30.53 0.0 22 09:35 NW 5 10.00 Fair CLR 10.4 -0.4 61% 3 30.53 0.0 22 09:15 W 3 10.00 Fair CLR 8.6 -0.4 66% 30.53 0.0 22 08:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 5 -0.4 78% 30.53 0.0 22 08:35 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 3.2 -4 72% 30.52 0.0 22 08:15 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -4 78% 30.52 0.0 22 07:55 SW 3 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -4 78% 30.52 0.0 22 07:35 SW 3 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -4 78% 30.52 0.0 22 07:15 S 3 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -4 78% 30.51 0.0 22 06:55 SW 3 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -5.8 78% 30.5 0.0 22 06:15 S 5 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -5.8 78% -9 30.49 0.0 22 05:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR -2.2 -5.8 84% 30.49 0.0 22 05:35 S 3 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -5.8 78% 30.49 0.0 22 05:15 S 3 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -2.2 85% 30.49 0.0 22 04:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -5.8 78% 30.48 0.0 22 04:35 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -4 84% 30.48 0.0 22 04:15 S 3 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -4 84% 30.49 0.0 22 03:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -5.8 78% 30.49 0.0 22 03:35 S 3 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -4 78% 30.49 0.0 22 03:15

I posted this in the philly forum a few minutes ago with pics last nights low was -10 at my house in Macungie. Many areas in the deeper valleys were colder than that along Rt 222. This is the coldest temps since the infamous winter of 1994 for me at the house. That was the year my digital thermometer locked up at -25 below zero and had to trash it. But I really remember the one thing in 1994 that I have not seen but one other time when it has been this cold here and because the Little Lehigh is in my backyard ---ICE FOG--. I hope Mike Gorse reads this. This is really a rare weather phenomena here and...

last nights low was -10 at my house in Macungie. Many areas in the deeper valleys were colder than that along Rt 222. This is the coldest temps since the infamous winter of 1994 for me at the house. That was the year my digital thermometer locked up at -25 below zero and had to trash it. But I really remember the one thing in 1994 that I have not seen but one other time when it has been this cold here and because the Little Lehigh is in my backyard ---ICE FOG--. I hope Mike Gorse reads this. This is really a rare weather phenomena here and demonstrates how cold the air really is in the riverine valleys in PA. Ice Fog forms when the skies are clear -10 below zero and colder and the stream is not frozen because the water is limestone spring fed at around 60 degrees. The warm water literally starts to steam in such colder temps. Everything within the riparian area around the stream turns into an crystallized powder on the vegetation and becomes a beautiful ice wonderland.

drought is ignored in the winter as these PADEP hydrologists sit comfortably in their heated offices and never get out to see the real world. They rely on inaccurate USGS gauges during frozen conditions and other BS modeling for drought that are with unproven techniques. Tell them to go drill a monitoring well and they will always say what for? The stupidity burns my friends. The current snow pack contains snowflakes with little moisture content which does nothing for the drought. Best evidence in which the hydrologists ignore is the moisture content of the snowpack. My proof? Look how yellow the grass was even before the latest snow cover. The grass has now been covered with some low moisture fluffy snow but in these desert like humidities the last month , sublimation has literally destroy the moisture content of the snow cover and when the grass is exposed again, the grass will be even more yellow- actually brown. But they continue to sit in their offices dreaming of a flood somewhere. Thanks for agreeing with me.

Yes, some talk about it here but it is the media that ticks me off. Too much time on sports and social issues, not enough time on water supply issues until it's too late. The snow sublimation is a humongous problem right now. Ski resorts are pumping one hell of lot water out of the ground just to keep the slopes at the proper snow depth. Why is no one mentioning that situation? The levels of streams show drought conditions now because they are frozen. Low flow conditions enable the non limestone streams to freeze longer and harder. More ice jams later? a good 18-24 inch state nowfall event would help a lot. That is not in the cards at this time. I see 2/14 to 2/20 period as the best and only shot of this happening as the dying la nina is put down with a new pattern change. However this pattern reminds of the 3 pattern before the March 93 superstorm too

and no rain or snow well enjoy your drought folks with the mild temps

Your post indicates only emphasizes one thing -CONTINUED SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION- and a bad one at that. Without heavy snowfalls in the next few weeks, we are in a world of hurt. As a professional hydrologist, the continued freezing temps with little to no snow melt, huge amounts of snow being sublimated and the ground water table falling because of no recharge with frozen soils and well pumping, we are in serious trouble for this spring. I hope state officials are aware of this problem because the media sure as hell does not care. They only care about the insignificant snow events and the bitter cold. and how it affects social issues and event. When peoples wells run dry, then maybe they will spend time on water supply issues.

I posted a response to another's concern about birding. This just happened. A red tail hawk hit my front window and was stunned. This is getting unbelievable. Last night low was -2 here in macungie with almost 8 in of snow on the ground.

Here in Lower macungie, just outside of Alburtis we had some wicked but nice localized snow banding. When the first band came through around 3 pm the flakes were pancake size and lasted for over an hour. It was snowing at 2-3 inch per hour rates for nearly 1.5 hours. The another band came through around 5 pm and dropped some more heavy snow 1 inch per hour rates but the fluff factor with the snow flake was noticeably diminished I ended up with 7.8 inches. The banding was expected and was a huge difference. The RGEM as well as final Mt Holly snow map showed the banding right over me. Below was my original forecast from days ago as stuck with the RGEM and my past experiences with these type of snow pattern events. The CMC has been holding strong and consistent this entire week for Sunday- Monday event, I find that refreshing. The GFS has been floundering and the Euro came back toward the CMC solution. The totals have been all over the place but it appears 6-8+ in may come more into line later tonight IMHO. I would post a thread later tonight after the OZ runs if the start aligning with my thoughts 0f 6-8 in. This would be a WSW event. A watch maybe needed by Sat morning if this scenario comes to fruition. The key will be the high snow ratios too. The storm may move quickly but the ratios and cold in... Thursday at 08:36 AM 1,264 replies

This is what I got so far 7.25 in

Approaching 8 in for the Macungie area, banding still going on with low visibility and S+ snow

yes it is awesome birding, bald eagles , red tail at my feeders and deer with other animals up on my deck The feeder on the deck hosts, raccoons, possums, at least 6-8 squirrels at a time and hundreds of birds

Its puking snow right now in Macungie 3-4 inches on the ground now. Visibility cut big time - less than 1/4 mile with stiff breezes Snow ratios up to near 15:1 with the fluff factor

Its puking snow right now in Macungie 3-4 inches on the ground now. Visibility cut big time - less than 1/4 mile with stiff breezes Snow ratios up to near 15:1 with the fluff factor

OH no, ten minutes of pixie dust size flakes are already fluffed up pretty good. Snow ratios way are already considerably higher than 10: 1 for sure as the cold air is working down through the profiles. The models indicate 10:1 snow ratios With banding , I see a 8-12 inches in places now. I ran the meteogram generator at KABE/KRDG at 20:1 ratios and its nearly a foot with the expected precip amounts without banding. The start time is a few hours ahead of schedule too. https://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=Kabe&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=20&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

for the newbies: as the LP gets wrapped up, the snow ratios will go up. Looking at models 6 hours hours before this type of storm event is useless. Its all radar folks. A true meteorologist knows the historical function of past events too- just not relying on modelogy. Watch and learn. My Holly is spot on. The HRDPS and HRRR is what to be looking at if you are counting inches. Basically, where the frontogenisis banding sets up. The sweet spot for banding with a historical benchmark storm like this one for good snow banding is in northern montgomery, bucks and the LV. Lets just see how it pans out. Anyway the best part of this storm is the cold and blowing snow afterwards with a chance of thundersnow in the snow banding too.

The Meso's are in play. The delayed start time is usual when trying to overcome the huge amount of dry air in place. Typically starts off as pixie dust and within the hour becomes a moderate snow. The models have a tough time ingesting this dry air for start timing and accumulations as we are in the depth of this huge arctic air mass this time around.. As the moisture and evaporative cooling snowfall overcomes the dry layers in the atmosphere, the snow ratios will increase dramatically thus the moderate snow quickly becomes heavy snow (Fluff factor). If it was windy, we would have whiteout conditions but the LP, I believe is not deep enough and too far away from the coast this time. The HRDPS model is a trusting model for this particular storm event IMHO because it shows the fragmentation of the upper air patterns as the LP lifts northward off the coast. For the LV , also reaching the benchmark usually gives a decent snowfall event so I feel good about getting over 6 inches for a winter storm warning. Banding of the snow is an issue that the meso's seem to have trouble identifying the approximate locations. Where those band setup and the progressives of the LP off the coast is the real determining factor. The storm in Macungie last Feb was a good example of this. Someone will get a lollipop of 10+ inches in the warned areas and we all hope it is over us. LOL