Albedoman

Folks, I have stuck to my guns. This map says it all - South Mtn special with banding. Lollipops of more than 6 inches across S Mtn region. Be prepared for a winter storm warning to be issued. for some areas during the storm event. This is a "now" event -lets see what happens I go by physical geography, not by dam roads as do the models. Bear Creek is going to love this storm

Its a tough call period. Banding could be an issue as the S Mountain area favors that the last few years. I got nearly 16 inches a few years ago while other got less than 6 inches. Either way it goes, the snow will immediately stick given given how cold it is right now. The big tell, is how cold and dry it is right now 14 degrees at my house with dew points in the single digits. That is a hell of lot of dry air to overcome in this typical alberta clipper. I expect a lot of virga. That is why this event is a wait and see game if the moisture gets more involved with this clipper before the shortwave digs in off the coast.

The higher snow ratios maybe achieved north of South Mountain which could lead to a solid 3-5 inch snow event even in the LV if get good digging and upper moisture. South of South Mountain range will be more moisture acceptable so this is a tough call for the LV. The mesos are also having a tough time absorbing the digging aspect of this event -- the GFS was lost-- and the fact there maybe one hell of alot of virga throughout the profile until it collapses. We have a lot of cold dry air to overcome for this event to unfold. This storm event could easily become a debbie downer based on this fact, especially for those north of Philly.

you should be looking at the mesoscale models now. GFS is unreliable IMHO, especially with digging clippers for our area

Fantasy Christmas storm shows up again this evening runs with over a foot and half. WE can only dream. White rain all day here but at least it was some precip. Take.

New York poster are scared because no water in the reservoirs means no water for them regardless of how the polluted Hudson looks. The bitter cold is locking up the streams everywhere with ice too- so the water intakes in the rivers will be the talk too. Just look around hear- the Jordan creek is already frozen over with the little water that is in it. It might as well be empty. We really ne3d a 3-5 in rain event with 50 degrees for a 3-4 day duration event. Any one see that in their crystal ball?

no relatives but watch what comes out of DRBC the next few weeks. A basin wide drought warning maybe implemented by them by mid January if we do not get any moisture Up this way. The southern jet stream is simply too far south and the northern jet stream will not bend to bring it up. Their is enough short waves below Memphis but they are dying on the vine in the Tenn Valley. WE NEED TN VALLEY SHORTWAVES FOLKS TO PRODUCE UNTIL THEN YOU GET NOTHING TO TRACK.

I have seen so much convoluted crap in these long range models last week or so.- it is so sickening. These LR models are so undependable when the southern jetstream gets cutoff and whisked away along the carolina coast for snow making in our region. All I am saying is you all better hope we get some deep moisture storms coming from the gulf or the atlantic, or we are going to be in one hell of a drought come spring. Right now I see no significant precip in the next 2-3 weeks. These clippers are bone dry. Less then . 25 inch of any type of precip is absolutely worthless when the dewpoints are in the single digits and below zero and the winds are at 25 mph after the clipper goes by. Its a dam desert out there. Snow will sublimate and rain will evaporate within hours. My humidifier is running like gangbusters right now and its not even mid-January. We really need the gulf moisture and it it just cannot get to our neck of the woods because the barrage of bone dry clippers keep it at bay below Memphis Tn. I have never seen such a relentless pattern in my 50 years of studying weather for the eastern US. It will take a very deep low pressure sitting in the gulf and spinning shortwaves toward until the pattern breaks. When this will form I have no idea but frankly the only outcome we are all going to see is fricking utility bills that will be doubled or tripled from last year with all of these cloudy, dreary cold days under 32 degrees. My november bill nearly doubled because this dam dry and cloudy weather pattern already. Snow weenies, lets hope for a good and really an original four corners low to reform in the gulf and head up the spine of the appalachians at the same time the SE ridge is retreating, especially around Christmas. Thats the only chance of a good storm I see worth tracking in December. Anything else is a shot in the dark right now as everything and I mean everything has to line up perfectly to see a 6+ in snow event before Christmas. Signed debbie downer LMAO

Posted this on 11/23 Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area.. Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle. The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck. If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast. The lows south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time as it appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too. The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks

Many media outlets will be picking up on the cold that is going to hit us in the next few days too. Single digits expected. I am expecting to see many reports on frozen pipes because of so many transient people from other areas of the country gave moved into the Lehigh Valley. They are not used to winterizing their homes. If I was a plumber, I would be resting up right now. They will be busy by this time next week. Never threw out a final call on this storm. The mix line is going everywhere this morning. Just happy to get some moisture.

bullseye is south mountain/macungie- my house --should be under a winter storm watch based on this model. Mt Holly no time to be bashful. The drivers in the LV have not seen snow in a long time. At least get them concerned about this storm event. Its border line warning criteria I know but least get them prepared under a watch. Too many times in the last few years , an advisory level event has turned into double digit snowfall events

Location:Lower Macungie Twsp Posted November 23 The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck. If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast. The lows south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time as it appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too. The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks

snow weenie amounts of 4-6+inches of snow and or .25 inch of ice for 2-3 runs with DR No and the GFS also agreeing and within 3 days of the event will usually get a good one started in this forum. We are a long way from that now. LOL Last year, it only took winter weather advisory level events to kick one up - we are so snow starved and have been spanked and run down the beaten path with a bunch of events that tuned out to be absolutely jack. This forum is pretty much gun shy for starting storm threads by having been burned so much the last 5 years with pity storms. In the MA forum, you will roasted over the coals for jinxing their forum by starting one. LMAO

I agree. The low pressure shortwave ejecting from the Tenn Valley(GOA) has got to have some decent moisture for us to get some decent overrunning. For many years now, the these ejecting lows have been bone dry. Lets hope the mosture gets involved this time before the dry air wins out. Literal crap shoot until 48 hours before the event.

I usually do not post in this forum but I feel for you guys too. AS I said a few days ago in the Philly forum: Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area.. Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle. The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck. If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast. The lows south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time as it appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too. The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks I basically want a 2-4 in long duration three day rain event asap to get the trees feet wet before the ground freezes and to get runoff back into the soon to be dry streams. Trout fishing and landscaping this spring will be severely hampered too if you do not get some significant rains in the next 2-3 weeks. When LCA declares a drought watch folks,its pretty serious. I have USGS gauging stations in my backyard for the Little Lehigh and if this stream dries up, the businesses will be greatly affected too throughout PA Quote

Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area.. Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle. The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck. If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast. The lows south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time as it appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too. The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks I basically want a 2-4 in long duration three day rain event asap to get the trees feet wet before the ground freezes and to get runoff back into the soon to be dry streams. Trout fishing and landscaping this spring will be severely hampered too if you do not get some significant rains in the next 2-3 weeks. When LCA declares a drought watch folks,its pretty serious. I have USGS gauging stations in my backyard for the Little Lehigh and if this stream dries up, the businesses will be greatly affected too throughout PA

well drought guy, here. These pity rain events is killing us now. Just issued a drought watch for my water supply. The bad thing is that it did not come from PADEP or the USGS, it came from my water authority LCA. This is getting serious as this affects the water bottling companies as well as 200,000 residents in the LV. Where is 2-3 in rainfall from a noreaster? WeE can not even squeeze out a popcorn fart for a decent rainfall event. Every time I look at the models, the snow potential keeps getting push back to the middle of December too. Welcome to the arid tundra region again. https://www.lehighvalleynews.com/environment-science/lehigh-county-authority-declares-drought-watch-asks-residents-to-reduce-water-use

the big pattern change is afoot- 4 corners lows constantly ejecting toward us for the next 3-4 weeks. One of them should be a minimal car topper event but still the GOM is not opened for business yet. We really need one of the 4 corner lows to go into the GOM and then run up the coast and stall as a Miller A. The PAC winds are just to strong right now and too progressive. Three more days of 40+ winds coming this week. I am so tired of dealing with dead ash trees falling with our public works dept.

finally,some rain to keep the leaf piles from blowing away tomorrow.

too late missed me

sorry, I could pee more than this rain. I am more exited about seeing the possibility of white rain in the next few days. I will sleep just fine tonight. At least the wind has stopped. Tired of seeing down ash trees.

My first shot at this potential event-- the coastal timing will bounce back and forth on the 10th to 11th. I only expect a white rain event at the best. Just not cold enough to see accumulating snow this time of the year in the valleys. The cold air has not been really locked in yet. Strictly an elevation event if it does occur--about 1500ft for accumulating snow. South Mtn range is my best guess at this time to see the best chance of accumulating snow in our area. The big takeaway IMHO- it will finally feel like winter again, with highs in the mid to upper 30's and the heat will finally have come on. The GEM sees something on the noon run but the snow hits at the very tail end of the storm. The GFS will be bouncing all over the place the next 5-7 days typical with the govt shutdown for additional air soundings in the Pac west

now it is showing up on tonights run. First flakes of the year?

noon runs look like an overunning situation possibly forming after a cold frontal passage near 11/13 with cold enuf temps to have frozen precip. Something to watch. The cold frontal passage on the 10th will bring hard freezes with temps in low 20's and high in the upper 30's.

All I know is this scenario model run better not happen. After looking at the CMC noon run, this would make Sandy look like a baby. With all of the dead ash trees in Eastern PA now and especially in the LV and urbanized and major riverine flooding, this would be a one hell of a disaster for our area. I would see unbelievable debris dams in the waterways from these fallen limbs and trees that would wipe out major bridges in our area. The power outages would be unmanageable and you will not find a generator in stock for 250 miles from our region. The fact this scenario is already showing up for one week away warrants further discussion by all pro's. Even a slight hit would be a huge concern. There will nothing left at the NJ beaches for next year beaachgoers and NYC will get one hell of test of its new subway drainage pumping system. Definitely will keep an eye on these model runs as the media and so-called internet weather gurus on facebook/youtube will play this up real good in the next few days if the the model runs continue to show this tonight and tomorrow. Can you say Panic?