Albedoman

back to snow nice flakes Over a foot now.

Just kidding. I was criticized a few days of this threat and many posters said i was off my rocker that this was not going to be a problem. They will find out the hard way tommorow evening when the blowing snow may keep the schools closed Tuesday too.

what drifting? LOL

what? that blowing and drifting must not supposed to happen according to many of the posters I am shocked. LMAO

6.5 in so far. Just went out plowed the first round here in macungie

they all are shoveling BS --why in the hell would anyone would even listen to them on this board is beyond me. so called weather gurus hogwash. They would not even know what derecho or a haboob is. They simply regurgitate NWS info for 1000 grand or more a year in a camera. OnlyChannel 10 Mr Schwartz -retired and I knew him personally has a weather background that is worth listening too

I said this in many of my posts the last 3 days that it would sleet in the heavier bands. Standing well over 4 inches at the house and snowing heavily

Pixie dust light snow here in macungie

VD 2007 Berks County all over again.

I agree- its the others but it will be a mess for sure

I love this analysis and I would love to see this report after each winters storm event over 6 inches. MOdel reliability would be the issue and not using wild speculating clown maps. Hope others think the same way. Lets get thoss HRRR maps up now and it appears the Euro is the model to look at.

I think we need to have a contest on where the sleet line actually sets up in and around the LV. I would like to see if Physical geography has a big play in this storm event. South Mtn and Blue Mtn usually plays some intregral part. Overall though 1-2 inches of sleet is just going to make the snow weigh more when shoveling/plowing. We will still have serious drifting issues in Northern areas of the Lehigh and Northampton Counties. Like you have said, I would love to see the forcing/banding be extended for a long period of time in the afternoon with thundersnow potential. . Honestly, many snow weenies want the most snow accumalations in the forum but after a foot of snow and inch or two of sleet after the big thumping of snow is eventually going to pack down or go through the fluffy snow and create one hell of a driving nightmare on the road surfaces since salt cannot work in these lower temps. Everyone screams about lowering snowfall accumalations, but its the road surface conditions that will determine the nightmare of this storm event. This storm reminds me so much of 1994 where it will be on the road for days with the extreme cold and everyone trying to drive in the ruts because the rest of the road surface is fricking ice covered compacted snow and sleet nightmare. I had to endure that for over a week and believe me it was not fun. Every intersection in and around Hamilton Blvd and Rt 78 was a living nightmare as making left turns in ruts was an ice skating rink. Can you imagine now 30 years later with all of the devleopment and congestion what Brookside and Hamilton will be like now?

I told the promary to slow down racing north to get a pitcher of beer to reload. LMAO

It follows S Mtn folks. Everything Southeast of hereford on rt 29 into east greenville will be the sleet line. Seen this so many many fricking times

Swinging for another storm next weekend and it is miss on tonight OZ runs. by 200 miles

Yes the LV has been burned many times Duncan892 with warm nose intrusions, but that is to be expected in the LV, but not this time. The Quebec high is too strong. The sleet line will be around th eMid Montgomery Bucks lines on the other side of the S mtn range. If we do get any ice, it will be sleet mixed in with the heavier bands of snow or freezing drizzle. This only comes with experience with doing this for 40+ years and seeing every historical pounding snowstorm the LV has received since 1983 most infamous dumping where we got 5" inches in one hour and ended up with 23 inches.

thundersleet

Note this. I am NOT chuckling: As long as the column saturates quickly enough, any snow thatfalls late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning could bevery high ratio, fluffy, rapidly accumulating snow thatconsists of many pristine dendrites (SLRs 15-20:1, could beeven higher if the column saturates faster but there is dry airat low levels to overcome at onset). So after a few hours ofvirga, accumulations have the potential to begin with avengeance in the predawn hours Sunday, especially from I-80south.”

I am not chuckling any more about the snow ratios and the location of the benchmark LP in the delmarva, The experts agree with me. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area for Friday night due to dangerously cold wind chills below zero. While models are trending north with the weekend storm system, resulting in more of a wintry mix, significant snow impacts are still expected. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Saturday night through late Monday morning. && . KEY MESSAGES... 1. Several cold fronts will be tracking through the area through Friday night. This will be the transition from the warmth to an arctic airmass bringing dangerously cold wind chills to all of the region by Friday night and into the start of the weekend. 2. Low pressure will impact the area Saturday night through late Monday morning with significant snow accumulations, however, a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and even plain rain may result in lower snow accumulations than would otherwise be expected. 3. Arctic air will remain over the area next week with temperatures not rising above freezing until possibly next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Several cold fronts will be tracking through the area through Friday night. This will be the transition from the warmth to an arctic airmass bringing dangerously cold wind chills to all of the region by Friday night and into the start of the weekend. Seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s are occuring across the area this afternoon. The warmth will be short-lived however, as we`ll be transitioning to an arctic airmass over the next 24-36 hours. The initial cold front is currently located over east-central Pennsylvania and will track east across the Mid- Atlantic and off the coast by this evening. Wind gusts up to 30-40 mph have occurred across much of the area, but will diminish into tonight as the front departs. Temperatures tonight will fall back to more seasonable levels with lows mainly in the upper teens to upper 20s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures on Friday will remain seasonable for one more day; topping out in the low to mid 30s north and west to low to mid 40s south and east. This will be the last of `normal` temperatures for quite a while as a potent secondary arctic front sweeps across the area by mid to late afternoon. Strong cold air advection pours into the region for Friday night where 850 mb temps are expected to range from -15C to -25C. This equates to surface temps falling into the single digits (or below zero on the Pocono Plateau). Not only will the temperatures be falling rapidly, but winds will pick up in wake of the secondary front; driven by a tightening pressure gradient between a very strong 1044 mb arctic high and departing low. This combination of single digit temperatures and wind gusts upwards of 25-35 mph will result in wind chills below zero areawide. For this reason, have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the entire forecast area for Friday night through Saturday morning. Where winds may be slightly higher and temps will be colder, wind chills may get as low as -20F on the Pocono Plateau. Possible upgrades to an Extreme Cold Warning cannot be ruled out for Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA. While the peak of the cold air aloft occurs Friday night, the arctic airmass remains overhead through the day on Saturday with strong surface high pressure building over the Great Lakes. High temps will only be in the teens to low 20s but fortunately winds will be diminishing. Dry conditions are expected through Saturday. This will be the last day to prepare for any storm preparations, so take any necessary precautions as needed to stay warm if outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure will impact the area Saturday night through late Monday morning with significant snow accumulations, however, a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and even plain rain may result in lower snow accumulations than would otherwise be expected. Arctic high pressure will be north of New York State Saturday night and will gradually lift to the northeast throughout the day Sunday, finally departing Sunday night. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough will continue to exit out of the Rocky Mountains and surface low pressure continues to organize and develop over the Gulf Coast states Saturday night through Sunday morning. Surface low then takes a run towards the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening before moving offshore and out to sea Sunday night through Monday. Overrunning precipitation develops on a developing warm front out ahead of the surface low Saturday night. With temperatures mainly in the teens, any precipitation that develops will be snow and snow accumulations will occur quickly. With snow ratios from 15-20:1, can expect a quick 1 to 3 inches over northern zones, 3 to 6 inches from around Philadelphia, through southern New Jersey, and into northern Delmarva, and 5 to 7 inches across southern Delmarva. What will need to be watched is if snow ratios lower late at night across southern Delmarva as warmer air lifts to the north. From there, snow continues to ramp up throughout the day Sunday. 12Z models have continued to trend to the north, and as a result, more in the way of warmer air will spread into the region aloft. The 12Z/22 ECMWF looks to be centered over the Delmarva Peninsula by Sunday evening, while the 12Z/22 GFS has the center of the low some 50-100 miles southeast of the ECMWF. The 12Z NAM now goes out until 00Z Monday and splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS. The 12Z/22 CMC is even a bit more to the northeast than the ECMWF. Ultimately, this results in a warmer solution, and can expect a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain well into southeast Pennsylvania, mainly along the I-95 corridor, and northern New Jersey, while rain and snow will develop along the New Jersey coast and southern Delaware. For the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, precipitation remains all snow. Cannot rule out a period of plain rain for portions of the southeast New Jersey coast and southern Delaware coast. This wintry mix continues through Sunday evening before changing back to all snow late Sunday night. Snow then continues into Monday morning before ending. Overall, snow accumulations look to be on the order of 12 to 15 inches for the majority of the area, with slightly less in southern Delmarva. While liquid QPF will be lower in the northern zones, the higher snow ratios will result in higher snow amounts in those areas. The main issue continues to be how much mixing will occur and how that will affect snow accumulations. While the overall average looks to be 12 to 15 inches, it is also quite possible for accumulations to be less, generally on the order of 8 to 12 inches from around Philadelphia south, with even less in southern Delmarva and along the extreme southeast New Jersey coast. The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect through late Monday morning/early Monday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 3...Arctic air will remain over the area next week with temperatures not rising above freezing until possibly next weekend. High pressure builds in from the north on Monday, and temperatures will be fairly cold with highs generally in the 20s to maybe low 30s in the far southern portions of the forecast area. A strong cold front then passes through Monday night and bitterly cold Arctic air spreads into the region with lows in the single digits Monday night and highs in the teens on Tuesday. Cold Weather Advisories and even Cold Air Warnings may be needed due to low wind chills as strong northwest winds develop behind the front. Highs will then be only slightly warmer Wednesday and Thursday. Due to this prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures, do not expect any help from Mother Nature with melting the new snowpack. In fact, temperatures may not get above freezing until next weekend.

I agree 25:1 ratios are impossible for here but I have seen almost 20:1 here in storms before, epecially when the LP wraps up at the benchmark and upsloping along the Blue and S Moutains exist. Not quite as impressive as out west with the higher elevations like in the Sierras and Bitterroots etc but it is nothing to sneeze here if the quebec high is strong enough. That is why I say 1035mb is the minimum for any good storm to come about here with higher snow ratios.

In northern Lehigh county, drifting is a huge deal. Urbanized areas, basically no issue. Many of the posters don ot even know where Lowhill Township is in Lehigh County. South mountain topgraphically is the cutoff for sleet in this storm

ITs on the mark. LV has been an overpeformer all winter thus far. Srating with the 16+ in of snow this year to -10 yesterday. Mt Holly and the NBM models are spot on. My criteria is also being met for a MECS scenario. The LP moving closer to the BM should close the deal in the the mesos runs OZ tonight. CCB and where it sets up with bandingwill be the tell all for final snow accumalations. Still, biggest concerns, drifting in the rural areas and extreme cold Mon- Wed

go ahead and laugh but i been in both situations. How old are you?

1994 all over again folks if that happens